Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.3 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.0 |
| PEG | 7.1 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.98
BOOT · Why this verdict
Why Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The company has a solid earnings beat record and meaningful analyst upside at a reasonable growth multiple, but near-term technical damage — a death cross, sub-200-day-moving-average price action, and severely thin free cash flow conversion — makes this a recovery story that requires patience rather than immediate conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten analyst EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 3.6%, demonstrating a consistent pattern of delivering above consensus expectations. Earnings | EPS surprise remains positive for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the current beat track record. | →Stable |
| CounterOne outright miss in the trailing four quarters — with a roughly 7% negative surprise — shows the streak is not guaranteed; a softening consumer spending environment could extend that miss pattern. | ||
At a forward P/E of 16.8x and a PEG ratio of 0.91, shares trade close to their earnings growth rate, suggesting the growth profile is not yet commanding a premium — creating room for multiple expansion if the earnings trajectory continues. Valuation breakdown | Price closes above $195 within 12 months as earnings growth justifies a re-rating of the current multiple. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock sits below its 200-day moving average with a death cross in place, meaning the multiple could compress further before any re-rating materializes, particularly if consumer retail conditions deteriorate. | ||
Free cash flow amounts to only 11% of net income, a severe earnings quality gap that raises serious doubt about whether reported profits are translating into real cash available to the business. Quality breakdown | FCF as a percentage of net income recovers above 50% over the next 12 months, providing genuine cash backing to the earnings that analysts are forecasting. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 indicates the company passes nearly every balance sheet and profitability quality test, suggesting the FCF gap may reflect timing or capital deployment rather than structural earnings quality deterioration. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a death cross in place and falling volume accumulation, indicating that near-term price recovery faces significant technical headwinds that could delay any fundamental re-rating. Warnings | Short interest falls below 6% from the current 13% within 6 months and on-balance volume turns upward, signaling that the technical selling overhang has materially reduced. | →Stable |
| CounterMACD is improving and RSI sits at 52 — neither oversold nor overbought — meaning the setup could see a recovery rally before the full technical picture clears, particularly if earnings continue to beat expectations. | ||
The company has beaten analyst EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 3.6%, demonstrating a consistent pattern of delivering above consensus expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains positive for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the current beat track record.
CounterOne outright miss in the trailing four quarters — with a roughly 7% negative surprise — shows the streak is not guaranteed; a softening consumer spending environment could extend that miss pattern.
At a forward P/E of 16.8x and a PEG ratio of 0.91, shares trade close to their earnings growth rate, suggesting the growth profile is not yet commanding a premium — creating room for multiple expansion if the earnings trajectory continues.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price closes above $195 within 12 months as earnings growth justifies a re-rating of the current multiple.
CounterThe stock sits below its 200-day moving average with a death cross in place, meaning the multiple could compress further before any re-rating materializes, particularly if consumer retail conditions deteriorate.
Free cash flow amounts to only 11% of net income, a severe earnings quality gap that raises serious doubt about whether reported profits are translating into real cash available to the business.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF as a percentage of net income recovers above 50% over the next 12 months, providing genuine cash backing to the earnings that analysts are forecasting.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 indicates the company passes nearly every balance sheet and profitability quality test, suggesting the FCF gap may reflect timing or capital deployment rather than structural earnings quality deterioration.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a death cross in place and falling volume accumulation, indicating that near-term price recovery faces significant technical headwinds that could delay any fundamental re-rating.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 6% from the current 13% within 6 months and on-balance volume turns upward, signaling that the technical selling overhang has materially reduced.
CounterMACD is improving and RSI sits at 52 — neither oversold nor overbought — meaning the setup could see a recovery rally before the full technical picture clears, particularly if earnings continue to beat expectations.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.1 |
| ROA | 5.6 |
| Gross margin | 3.6 |
| Op margin | 4.2 |
| Net margin | 5.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.9 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 11% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.2 |
| EPS growth | 5.7 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.6 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $36,871 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.0 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.6 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.8 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.4 |
| debt equity | 7.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $100
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.97
Upside
+10.0%
Downside
10.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMOMENTUM_CONT — Trend continuation, RSI 57, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.69>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5. Top dim: Sentiment at 7.5; weakest: Technical at 3.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.5, Momentum at 6.7, and Growth at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.97 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company has beaten analyst EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 3.6%, demonstrating a consistent pattern of delivering above consensus expectations.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the earnings beat pattern.
- P2At a forward P/E of 16.8x and a PEG ratio of 0.91, shares trade close to their earnings growth rate, suggesting the growth profile is not yet commanding a premium — creating room for multiple expansion if the earnings trajectory continues.
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 12x from the current 16.8x, indicating the multiple has de-rated despite positive earnings delivery.
- P3Free cash flow amounts to only 11% of net income, a severe earnings quality gap that raises serious doubt about whether reported profits are translating into real cash available to the business.
Trip ifFCF as a percentage of net income rises above 50% for 2 consecutive annual periods, indicating the cash conversion gap has materially closed.
- P4The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a death cross in place and falling volume accumulation, indicating that near-term price recovery faces significant technical headwinds that could delay any fundamental re-rating.
Trip ifShort interest falls below 6% from the current 13% for 2 consecutive months, indicating the bearish technical overhang has substantially reduced.