Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.44
- ▸Attractively valued
BANR · Why this verdict
Why Banner (BANR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Banner Corporation has beaten quarterly earnings estimates in four consecutive quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.5% and trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 9.8x with a price-to-growth ratio of 0.42, but the stock sits just 0.5% below near-term resistance with an unfavorable risk/reward of 0.12-to-1, leaving virtually no geometric upside for new capital at the current price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank has delivered positive earnings surprises in each of the last four quarters, with results ranging from a 3% beat in the oldest quarter to a 15.8% beat in the most recent, averaging 8.5% above estimates — a pattern consistent with management consistently guiding conservatively and over-delivering. Earnings | Earnings per share surprise averages above 5% over the next four reported quarters, extending the streak to at least six of the next eight periods. | →Stable |
| CounterBeat magnitudes have varied significantly across the four quarters, from 3% to nearly 16%; the track record is positive but uneven, and a single quarter where estimates prove too optimistic would break the streak — the upcoming report in 29 days is the immediate test. | ||
Shares trade at a forward price-to-earnings of 9.8x and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.42, implying the market is pricing in modest growth relative to historical earnings capacity — a combination that could offer re-rating upside if the earnings trend continues. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings estimates rise over the next 12 months while the forward P/E remains below 13x, widening the gap to intrinsic value. | →Stable |
| CounterPeer-comparison data shows below-median value rank, which may mean the apparent cheapness is already recognized; a persistently low multiple can also reflect modest expected returns rather than genuine mispricing. | ||
The stock has formed a golden cross and trades above all major moving averages with RSI at a neutral 52, while rising on-balance volume confirms sustained buying demand — a configuration pointing to steady accumulation without overbought conditions. Chart pattern detection | Price remains above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues rising over the next six months, confirming the uptrend. | →Stable |
| CounterAt 94% of its 52-week range, the stock has little historic room to extend; momentum at these price levels can stall quickly near resistance, particularly when just 0.5% of upside remains before the near-term target. | ||
With only 0.5% remaining between the current price and near-term resistance, the risk/reward ratio stands at 0.12-to-1 — well below any acceptable threshold — meaning the setup has already captured its available geometric upside and no longer compensates adequately for the downside. Price targets | The setup becomes attractive again only if the stock pulls back to create at least 8% upside to resistance, producing a risk/reward ratio above 1.5-to-1. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong earnings beat in 29 days could push the stock through the current resistance level, making the near-term ceiling a temporary friction rather than a hard barrier and resetting the take-profit target higher. | ||
The options market displays a put-to-call ratio of 1.60 and implied volatility of 117%, both elevated relative to typical norms, indicating that market participants are paying for downside protection heading into the earnings event in 29 days — a level of hedging that signals meaningful uncertainty around the upcoming print. Options | Put/call ratio falls below 1.0 and implied volatility compresses after the earnings event, indicating the pre-announcement anxiety has resolved. | →Stable |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio can reflect investors hedging long equity positions rather than expressing outright bearish views; taken in isolation, without corroborating fundamental deterioration, the signal carries limited directional predictive power. | ||
The bank has delivered positive earnings surprises in each of the last four quarters, with results ranging from a 3% beat in the oldest quarter to a 15.8% beat in the most recent, averaging 8.5% above estimates — a pattern consistent with management consistently guiding conservatively and over-delivering.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share surprise averages above 5% over the next four reported quarters, extending the streak to at least six of the next eight periods.
CounterBeat magnitudes have varied significantly across the four quarters, from 3% to nearly 16%; the track record is positive but uneven, and a single quarter where estimates prove too optimistic would break the streak — the upcoming report in 29 days is the immediate test.
Shares trade at a forward price-to-earnings of 9.8x and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.42, implying the market is pricing in modest growth relative to historical earnings capacity — a combination that could offer re-rating upside if the earnings trend continues.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates rise over the next 12 months while the forward P/E remains below 13x, widening the gap to intrinsic value.
CounterPeer-comparison data shows below-median value rank, which may mean the apparent cheapness is already recognized; a persistently low multiple can also reflect modest expected returns rather than genuine mispricing.
The stock has formed a golden cross and trades above all major moving averages with RSI at a neutral 52, while rising on-balance volume confirms sustained buying demand — a configuration pointing to steady accumulation without overbought conditions.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price remains above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues rising over the next six months, confirming the uptrend.
CounterAt 94% of its 52-week range, the stock has little historic room to extend; momentum at these price levels can stall quickly near resistance, particularly when just 0.5% of upside remains before the near-term target.
With only 0.5% remaining between the current price and near-term resistance, the risk/reward ratio stands at 0.12-to-1 — well below any acceptable threshold — meaning the setup has already captured its available geometric upside and no longer compensates adequately for the downside.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The setup becomes attractive again only if the stock pulls back to create at least 8% upside to resistance, producing a risk/reward ratio above 1.5-to-1.
CounterA strong earnings beat in 29 days could push the stock through the current resistance level, making the near-term ceiling a temporary friction rather than a hard barrier and resetting the take-profit target higher.
The options market displays a put-to-call ratio of 1.60 and implied volatility of 117%, both elevated relative to typical norms, indicating that market participants are paying for downside protection heading into the earnings event in 29 days — a level of hedging that signals meaningful uncertainty around the upcoming print.
→StableOptions
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 1.0 and implied volatility compresses after the earnings event, indicating the pre-announcement anxiety has resolved.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio can reflect investors hedging long equity positions rather than expressing outright bearish views; taken in isolation, without corroborating fundamental deterioration, the signal carries limited directional predictive power.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 6.6 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.6 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 3.4 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.6 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 7.4 |
| implied vol | 3.1 |
| beta | 8.0 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 296.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:20d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.75
Upside
-5.4%
Downside
7.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 20d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.3B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.0; weakest: Technical at 4.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Momentum at 6.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4; the weakest are Technical at 4.4, Insider at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.75 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The bank has delivered positive earnings surprises in each of the last four quarters, with results ranging from a 3% beat in the oldest quarter to a 15.8% beat in the most recent, averaging 8.5% above estimates — a pattern consistent with management consistently guiding conservatively and over-delivering.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2Shares trade at a forward price-to-earnings of 9.8x and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.42, implying the market is pricing in modest growth relative to historical earnings capacity — a combination that could offer re-rating upside if the earnings trend continues.
Trip ifForward P/E multiple expands above 15x without a corresponding increase in EPS estimates.
- P3The stock has formed a golden cross and trades above all major moving averages with RSI at a neutral 52, while rising on-balance volume confirms sustained buying demand — a configuration pointing to steady accumulation without overbought conditions.
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for 5 consecutive sessions.
- P4With only 0.5% remaining between the current price and near-term resistance, the risk/reward ratio stands at 0.12-to-1 — well below any acceptable threshold — meaning the setup has already captured its available geometric upside and no longer compensates adequately for the downside.
Trip ifUpside to the near-term resistance target exceeds 10%, indicating a pullback has created a materially better risk/reward.
- P5The options market displays a put-to-call ratio of 1.60 and implied volatility of 117%, both elevated relative to typical norms, indicating that market participants are paying for downside protection heading into the earnings event in 29 days — a level of hedging that signals meaningful uncertainty around the upcoming print.
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 0.8 for 4 consecutive weeks after the earnings event.