Value
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.7 |
| P/S | 7.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.6 |
| PEG | 5.5 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.38
AZN · Why this verdict
Why AstraZeneca (AZN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A wide economic moat, strong margins at 17%, a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a 3-of-4 earnings beat record underpin a high-quality franchise that offers 10.2% headroom to the target with a 2.3-to-1 risk/reward — the sole near-term drag is weakening price momentum, which keeps the setup in a holding pattern rather than an active buy.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Strong operating and gross margins at 17%, a wide economic moat, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and the hallmarks of a business that has compounded returns over multiple cycles together signal a high-quality franchise capable of sustaining above-average returns through a range of market environments. Quality breakdown | Operating margin stays above 15% and the Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above for the next 4 quarters, confirming the quality profile is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow at 63% of net income — a level that triggers an earnings quality flag — suggests a gap between reported profits and cash generation; if that gap widens, the apparent quality could reflect favorable accounting rather than sustainable economics. | ||
Three beats in the last four quarters, with the most recent print delivering a 1.4% positive surprise after a one-quarter miss, indicates management has re-established its guidance discipline following a temporary miss and that the earnings delivery cadence remains intact. Earnings | EPS surprise remains positive for the next 2 quarterly reports, confirming the miss was isolated rather than the start of a new trend. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one-quarter miss was a 10.7% negative surprise — the largest single-quarter earnings shortfall in the trailing four periods — suggesting the business can produce meaningful downside when conditions shift against it, and the guidance discipline is less reliable than a longer streak would imply. | ||
Falling on-balance volume and mixed technical signals indicate that price momentum has weakened, and the momentum dimension scoring well below the required threshold means the setup is not yet technically ready for new buying interest. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume turns upward and the momentum score improves above 4.5 within the next 2 months, signaling that selling pressure has exhausted itself. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum weakness in a high-quality franchise can reflect sector rotation or macro-driven pressure rather than fundamental deterioration; if the underlying earnings trend remains intact, weakened momentum often resolves without a major price break. | ||
With 10.2% headroom to the $195.31 target and a risk/reward ratio of approximately 2.3-to-1 in favor of the upside, the position geometry supports patient holders — the setup can absorb near-term momentum weakness and still deliver a favorable outcome over 12 months. Price targets | Price closes above $195.31 within 12 months as the momentum headwind resolves and institutional accumulation supports the upside path. | →Stable |
| CounterA rich multiple at a forward P/E of 22.0x leaves little room for fundamental disappointment; a premium multiple can persist only if earnings growth continues to justify it, and any deceleration in the growth rate could compress the multiple and eliminate the headroom. | ||
Institutions accumulating the stock alongside a broadly positive analyst sentiment — including a consensus analyst upside of 27% — suggests that informed large-capital buyers see the momentum weakness as a temporary dislocation rather than a fundamental problem. Insider breakdown | Institutional ownership increases by more than 2 percentage points over the next 2 quarters, confirming the accumulation trend is sustained. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst consensus upside figures and institutional buying reflect positioning at a point in time; if the momentum headwind deepens or a macro catalyst hits the sector, institutional holders can become forced sellers quickly, reversing the accumulation signal. | ||
Strong operating and gross margins at 17%, a wide economic moat, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and the hallmarks of a business that has compounded returns over multiple cycles together signal a high-quality franchise capable of sustaining above-average returns through a range of market environments.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin stays above 15% and the Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above for the next 4 quarters, confirming the quality profile is durable.
CounterFree cash flow at 63% of net income — a level that triggers an earnings quality flag — suggests a gap between reported profits and cash generation; if that gap widens, the apparent quality could reflect favorable accounting rather than sustainable economics.
Three beats in the last four quarters, with the most recent print delivering a 1.4% positive surprise after a one-quarter miss, indicates management has re-established its guidance discipline following a temporary miss and that the earnings delivery cadence remains intact.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains positive for the next 2 quarterly reports, confirming the miss was isolated rather than the start of a new trend.
CounterThe one-quarter miss was a 10.7% negative surprise — the largest single-quarter earnings shortfall in the trailing four periods — suggesting the business can produce meaningful downside when conditions shift against it, and the guidance discipline is less reliable than a longer streak would imply.
Falling on-balance volume and mixed technical signals indicate that price momentum has weakened, and the momentum dimension scoring well below the required threshold means the setup is not yet technically ready for new buying interest.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume turns upward and the momentum score improves above 4.5 within the next 2 months, signaling that selling pressure has exhausted itself.
CounterMomentum weakness in a high-quality franchise can reflect sector rotation or macro-driven pressure rather than fundamental deterioration; if the underlying earnings trend remains intact, weakened momentum often resolves without a major price break.
With 10.2% headroom to the $195.31 target and a risk/reward ratio of approximately 2.3-to-1 in favor of the upside, the position geometry supports patient holders — the setup can absorb near-term momentum weakness and still deliver a favorable outcome over 12 months.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price closes above $195.31 within 12 months as the momentum headwind resolves and institutional accumulation supports the upside path.
CounterA rich multiple at a forward P/E of 22.0x leaves little room for fundamental disappointment; a premium multiple can persist only if earnings growth continues to justify it, and any deceleration in the growth rate could compress the multiple and eliminate the headroom.
Institutions accumulating the stock alongside a broadly positive analyst sentiment — including a consensus analyst upside of 27% — suggests that informed large-capital buyers see the momentum weakness as a temporary dislocation rather than a fundamental problem.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Institutional ownership increases by more than 2 percentage points over the next 2 quarters, confirming the accumulation trend is sustained.
CounterAnalyst consensus upside figures and institutional buying reflect positioning at a point in time; if the momentum headwind deepens or a macro catalyst hits the sector, institutional holders can become forced sellers quickly, reversing the accumulation signal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.8 |
| ROA | 5.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 8.6 |
| Current ratio | 3.6 |
| FCF quality | 4.9 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 63% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
4.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.6 |
| EPS growth | 3.1 |
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.8 |
| Analyst rating | 8.2 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
6.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $2,209,482 (0.001% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 8.1 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.1 |
| support resistance | 0.8 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 7.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.7 |
- ▸Above max pain $75
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.4 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.74
Upside
+5.0%
Downside
6.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.8; weakest: Technical at 3.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.8, Quality at 7.1, and Insider at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 3.2, Growth at 4.3, and Peer rank at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.74 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong operating and gross margins at 17%, a wide economic moat, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and the hallmarks of a business that has compounded returns over multiple cycles together signal a high-quality franchise capable of sustaining above-average returns through a range of market environments.
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 13% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Three beats in the last four quarters, with the most recent print delivering a 1.4% positive surprise after a one-quarter miss, indicates management has re-established its guidance discipline following a temporary miss and that the earnings delivery cadence remains intact.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Falling on-balance volume and mixed technical signals indicate that price momentum has weakened, and the momentum dimension scoring well below the required threshold means the setup is not yet technically ready for new buying interest.
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 and on-balance volume turns positive for 4 consecutive weeks, removing the technical headwind.
- P4With 10.2% headroom to the $195.31 target and a risk/reward ratio of approximately 2.3-to-1 in favor of the upside, the position geometry supports patient holders — the setup can absorb near-term momentum weakness and still deliver a favorable outcome over 12 months.
Trip ifPrice closes above $195.31 for 5 or more consecutive sessions, confirming the target has been reached.
- P5Institutions accumulating the stock alongside a broadly positive analyst sentiment — including a consensus analyst upside of 27% — suggests that informed large-capital buyers see the momentum weakness as a temporary dislocation rather than a fundamental problem.
Trip ifInstitutional ownership decreases by more than 3 percentage points in a single reporting period, signaling distribution rather than accumulation.