Value
9.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.8 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
- ▸Attractively valued
ARIS · Why this verdict
Why Aris Mining (ARIS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 8.4 |
| Gross margin | 7.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 7.6 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| FCF quality | 7.8 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 136% YoY
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.5 |
| MACD | 8.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 40) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.6 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 135%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.8 |
| support resistance | 6.0 |
| 52w position | 3.5 |
| gap | 7.5 |
- ▸Extreme gap down (-5.0%) - potential reversal
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 3.6 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 11.00
Catalyst
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.00, quality 7.8/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.5>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:6.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:44d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=4.4x,ratio=0.23x
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
6.72
Upside
+99.6%
Downside
14.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.92>1.3, MCap $3.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict: quality 7.8 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 6.72 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.1, and Quality at 7.8; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.3, Peer rank at 3.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.72 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.