Value
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.1 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 3.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.2x
- ▸PEG: 2.77
AON · Why this verdict
Why Aon (AON) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Aon's insurance brokerage franchise generates peer-leading 23% net margins and a return on equity that ranks best-in-class versus peers with a four-quarter earnings beat streak, but thin near-term upside of roughly 5%, a risk/reward barely above 1-to-1, a confirmed price downtrend, and leverage of 1.6 times debt-to-equity together constrain the near-term setup and make this a hold-not-add situation at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.6, the balance sheet carries meaningful leverage that reduces financial flexibility and could amplify stock declines if credit conditions tighten or organic revenue growth disappoints while the price is already trending lower. Bear case | Debt-to-equity declines below 1.2 over the next 12 months through cash generation or targeted debt reduction. | →Stable |
| CounterInsurance brokerage firms generate recurring, contractual commission revenue providing stable interest coverage; the 23% net margins offer a substantial buffer above debt-service requirements even in a moderate revenue slowdown. | ||
Four consecutive quarterly earnings beats — at a modest average positive surprise of roughly 3% — demonstrate consistent guidance discipline and execution reliability in a large-scale financial services franchise where predictability commands a quality premium. Earnings | Beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters without a miss. | →Stable |
| CounterAn average beat of only 3% leaves the streak highly fragile: a single quarter with modest cost inflation or slower organic revenue could produce the first miss in over a year, potentially re-pricing a stock already in a confirmed downtrend. | ||
The company delivers 23% net margins and a return on equity that ranks best-in-class among insurance brokerage peers, reflecting structural pricing advantages and operating leverage that competitors have not replicated across the cycle. Notes | Operating margin stays above 20% and ROE remains above 35% for each of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA return on equity near 46% is likely partly inflated by a buyback-compressed equity base rather than pure operational compounding; the leverage ratio (debt-to-equity of 1.6) that enables elevated returns also amplifies downside if brokerage revenue softens. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with that average itself declining at roughly 1.8% per month — a confirmed technical downtrend that historically limits valuation re-rating until price reclaims the long-term average. Momentum breakdown | Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average and holds for at least 4 consecutive weeks within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMACD is improving and momentum has been recovering from a death-cross trough, suggesting the downtrend may be in its later stages rather than accelerating — the current level could prove to be a turning point rather than the beginning of further compression. | ||
At a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.6, the balance sheet carries meaningful leverage that reduces financial flexibility and could amplify stock declines if credit conditions tighten or organic revenue growth disappoints while the price is already trending lower.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity declines below 1.2 over the next 12 months through cash generation or targeted debt reduction.
CounterInsurance brokerage firms generate recurring, contractual commission revenue providing stable interest coverage; the 23% net margins offer a substantial buffer above debt-service requirements even in a moderate revenue slowdown.
Four consecutive quarterly earnings beats — at a modest average positive surprise of roughly 3% — demonstrate consistent guidance discipline and execution reliability in a large-scale financial services franchise where predictability commands a quality premium.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters without a miss.
CounterAn average beat of only 3% leaves the streak highly fragile: a single quarter with modest cost inflation or slower organic revenue could produce the first miss in over a year, potentially re-pricing a stock already in a confirmed downtrend.
The company delivers 23% net margins and a return on equity that ranks best-in-class among insurance brokerage peers, reflecting structural pricing advantages and operating leverage that competitors have not replicated across the cycle.
→StableNotes
- Expectation
- Operating margin stays above 20% and ROE remains above 35% for each of the next 4 quarters.
CounterA return on equity near 46% is likely partly inflated by a buyback-compressed equity base rather than pure operational compounding; the leverage ratio (debt-to-equity of 1.6) that enables elevated returns also amplifies downside if brokerage revenue softens.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with that average itself declining at roughly 1.8% per month — a confirmed technical downtrend that historically limits valuation re-rating until price reclaims the long-term average.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average and holds for at least 4 consecutive weeks within 12 months.
CounterMACD is improving and momentum has been recovering from a death-cross trough, suggesting the downtrend may be in its later stages rather than accelerating — the current level could prove to be a turning point rather than the beginning of further compression.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.5 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 46%
- ▸Strong margins: 23%
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 7.4 |
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
| erm sentiment | 4.7 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 8.9 |
| growth rank | 0.9 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.6 |
| support resistance | 6.0 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 9.0 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 7.3 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.7 |
| debt equity | 3.9 |
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.9 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 101.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.26
Upside
+6.6%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 28d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5, ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.26 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6, Quality at 7.0, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 3.5, Peer rank at 3.7, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company delivers 23% net margins and a return on equity that ranks best-in-class among insurance brokerage peers, reflecting structural pricing advantages and operating leverage that competitors have not replicated across the cycle.
Trip ifOperating margin compresses below 18% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Four consecutive quarterly earnings beats — at a modest average positive surprise of roughly 3% — demonstrate consistent guidance discipline and execution reliability in a large-scale financial services franchise where predictability commands a quality premium.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3At a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.6, the balance sheet carries meaningful leverage that reduces financial flexibility and could amplify stock declines if credit conditions tighten or organic revenue growth disappoints while the price is already trending lower.
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio rises above 2.0.
- P4The stock is below its 200-day moving average with that average itself declining at roughly 1.8% per month — a confirmed technical downtrend that historically limits valuation re-rating until price reclaims the long-term average.
Trip ifPrice crosses back above the 200-day moving average and holds for 4 consecutive weeks.