Value
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.2 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.9 |
| PEG | 4.4 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 36.3x
- ▸PEG: 2.09
- ▸Expensive valuation
ANET · Why this verdict
Why Arista Networks (ANET) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Arista Networks is a wide-moat, high-quality business compounding at 35% revenue growth with a perfect Piotroski score, four consecutive earnings beats, and strong operating margins — but the stock has reached the near-term analyst target, trades at a forward multiple of 38x, and the current setup rewards patience over immediate entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing at 35% year over year, placing the company firmly among the fastest-growing large-cap technology franchises. Earnings growth accompanies revenue growth, and the four-quarter beat streak with an average 8.8% positive surprise indicates the company is executing above even its own guidance. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 20% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth at this rate is already embedded in a 38x forward multiple and a PEG above 2; if growth decelerates toward the mid-teens — even while remaining healthy — multiple compression could offset earnings gains and produce flat or negative returns. | ||
The business earns a wide economic moat designation supported by a 32% return on equity, 38% operating margins, and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9. These metrics collectively describe a franchise that consistently generates returns well above its cost of capital. Quality breakdown | Operating margin stays above 30% and return on equity remains above 25% for 4 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterAt a forward multiple of 38x, the market has already priced in sustained superiority; any compression in margins or return profile — even to merely good rather than exceptional — would likely produce a meaningful multiple de-rating. | ||
The stock is trading within roughly 0.7% of the analyst consensus price target, leaving minimal near-term upside at current prices. The setup favors accumulating on weakness toward the entry support level around $141 rather than chasing at current levels. Warnings | The stock pulls back to the $141–$150 range, restoring upside to the take-profit target above 10% from entry. | →Stable |
| CounterWide-moat businesses with a golden cross and bullish MACD often continue higher as fundamental momentum overwhelms valuation caution; waiting for a pullback that never comes is a common cost of excessive price discipline on high-quality names. | ||
The put-to-call ratio stands at 2.28, well above neutral, indicating that options market participants are positioning more heavily for downside protection than for upside participation. This hedging activity, combined with implied volatility near 62%, reflects meaningful uncertainty about near-term price direction. Risk breakdown | The put-to-call ratio compresses below 1.5 over the next quarter as the stock re-establishes direction. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put activity in a high-beta technology name often reflects institutional hedging of existing long positions rather than outright bearish bets; the presence of heavy put hedging alongside a perfect momentum setup does not necessarily forecast a decline. | ||
Revenue is growing at 35% year over year, placing the company firmly among the fastest-growing large-cap technology franchises. Earnings growth accompanies revenue growth, and the four-quarter beat streak with an average 8.8% positive surprise indicates the company is executing above even its own guidance.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 20% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterGrowth at this rate is already embedded in a 38x forward multiple and a PEG above 2; if growth decelerates toward the mid-teens — even while remaining healthy — multiple compression could offset earnings gains and produce flat or negative returns.
The business earns a wide economic moat designation supported by a 32% return on equity, 38% operating margins, and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9. These metrics collectively describe a franchise that consistently generates returns well above its cost of capital.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin stays above 30% and return on equity remains above 25% for 4 consecutive quarters.
CounterAt a forward multiple of 38x, the market has already priced in sustained superiority; any compression in margins or return profile — even to merely good rather than exceptional — would likely produce a meaningful multiple de-rating.
The stock is trading within roughly 0.7% of the analyst consensus price target, leaving minimal near-term upside at current prices. The setup favors accumulating on weakness toward the entry support level around $141 rather than chasing at current levels.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The stock pulls back to the $141–$150 range, restoring upside to the take-profit target above 10% from entry.
CounterWide-moat businesses with a golden cross and bullish MACD often continue higher as fundamental momentum overwhelms valuation caution; waiting for a pullback that never comes is a common cost of excessive price discipline on high-quality names.
The put-to-call ratio stands at 2.28, well above neutral, indicating that options market participants are positioning more heavily for downside protection than for upside participation. This hedging activity, combined with implied volatility near 62%, reflects meaningful uncertainty about near-term price direction.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio compresses below 1.5 over the next quarter as the stock re-establishes direction.
CounterElevated put activity in a high-beta technology name often reflects institutional hedging of existing long positions rather than outright bearish bets; the presence of heavy put hedging alongside a perfect momentum setup does not necessarily forecast a decline.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 9.6 |
| Gross margin | 8.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| FCF quality | 7.9 |
| Moat | 8.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 32%
- ▸Strong margins: 38%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
8.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.8 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $380,854,496 (0.187% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.6 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 3.0 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.3 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 9.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 9.9 |
| implied vol | 2.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.6 |
- ▸High IV: 65%
- ▸Above max pain $90
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.7 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:40d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.10
Upside
+1.3%
Downside
13.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.61>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5. Top dim: Quality at 9.3; weakest: Value at 2.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 9.3, Growth at 8.5, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Value at 2.8, Insider at 3.4, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The business earns a wide economic moat designation supported by a 32% return on equity, 38% operating margins, and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9. These metrics collectively describe a franchise that consistently generates returns well above its cost of capital.
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 30% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Revenue is growing at 35% year over year, placing the company firmly among the fastest-growing large-cap technology franchises. Earnings growth accompanies revenue growth, and the four-quarter beat streak with an average 8.8% positive surprise indicates the company is executing above even its own guidance.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3The stock is trading within roughly 0.7% of the analyst consensus price target, leaving minimal near-term upside at current prices. The setup favors accumulating on weakness toward the entry support level around $141 rather than chasing at current levels.
Trip ifStock price rises above $185 without a pullback to the $141–$150 support zone, making entry at a favorable level unlikely.
- P4The put-to-call ratio stands at 2.28, well above neutral, indicating that options market participants are positioning more heavily for downside protection than for upside participation. This hedging activity, combined with implied volatility near 62%, reflects meaningful uncertainty about near-term price direction.
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio compresses below 1.5 for 2 consecutive months.