Value
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.1 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.4 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 27.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.83
AMZN · Why this verdict
Why Amazon.com (AMZN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroCAUTIOUS
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AMZN at $265.29 is a compounder profile (Wide moat, 8/9 Piotroski, 3/4 beats, strong growth) but V9 produces NO_EDGE/AVOID due to thin 8.4% upside, near-52w-high positioning (4.8% away), and a soft momentum at 4.7 (below the engine's 5.5 threshold) — the the engine signals 'Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.'
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Engine signal |
|---|---|---|
Bull_case cites 'Wide economic moat' corroborated by quality.notes 'Wide economic moat', 'Compounder quality: strong returns + growth' and Piotroski F 8/9 — the structural durability case is intact. Bull case (item 3) | Moat component stays above 8.0 and Piotroski F-Score remains 7+/9 over the next 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterFCF/NI 11% red flag in quality.notes shows reported earnings overstate cash generation; if FCF doesn't catch up, the 'compounder' label deteriorates to 'capital-intensive grower'. | ||
Bear_case 'Thin upside margin: 8.4%' and 'Near 52-week high (4.8% away)' — V9 asymmetry_ratio 1.68 barely clears the 1.5 floor and TP $287.62 leaves limited room before analyst re-rating is needed. Bear case (item 1) | Analyst take_profit advances above $300 (13%+ above spot) restoring asymmetry_ratio above 2.5. | →stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets routinely lag price during strong momentum — near-52w-high with above-200-day MA is a trend-continuation setup, not a top. | ||
Bull_case 'Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)' with avg_surprise_pct 29.76% (including 68% beat on 2026-04-29) and catalyst notes 'Strong earnings: 3B/1M' show execution against estimates is consistently strong. Earnings track record | Beat count holds at 3+/4 with avg_surprise_pct above 20% by the 2026-07-30 print. | →stable |
| CounterQ4 2025 missed by -0.49% — a beat streak operating at this magnitude is one quarter from being a 2/4 narrative. | ||
Insider signal BEARISH with 37 sells / 0 buys over 90 days and net -195,774 shares — 37 sell transactions in a quarter is unusually high frequency for a single ticker, even adjusted for AMZN's executive headcount. Insider transaction read | Sell_count drops below 15 with buy_count >= 1 on the next refresh. | →stable |
| CounterAMZN's stock-comp-heavy executive comp produces high baseline sell counts via 10b5-1 plans; without dollar values (net_value_90d null) the 'BEARISH' label may not reflect discretionary conviction. | ||
V9 setup_type RANGE_BOUND with RSI 40 mid-range and Bollinger mid-band, plus momentum 4.7 with soft warning 'momentum at 4.7 (below the engine's 5.5 threshold) (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)' — chart lacks a directional thesis. Chart pattern detection | Momentum subscore rises above 5.5 with RSI > 55 and setup_type advancing to BREAKOUT or CONTINUATION within 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterRANGE_BOUND from $250-$290 is consistent with consolidation after the prior leg up; volume accumulation (rising OBV) suggests the next break is upward. | ||
Bull_case cites 'Wide economic moat' corroborated by quality.notes 'Wide economic moat', 'Compounder quality: strong returns + growth' and Piotroski F 8/9 — the structural durability case is intact.
→stableBull case (item 3)
- Expectation
- Moat component stays above 8.0 and Piotroski F-Score remains 7+/9 over the next 2 refreshes.
CounterFCF/NI 11% red flag in quality.notes shows reported earnings overstate cash generation; if FCF doesn't catch up, the 'compounder' label deteriorates to 'capital-intensive grower'.
Bear_case 'Thin upside margin: 8.4%' and 'Near 52-week high (4.8% away)' — V9 asymmetry_ratio 1.68 barely clears the 1.5 floor and TP $287.62 leaves limited room before analyst re-rating is needed.
→stableBear case (item 1)
- Expectation
- Analyst take_profit advances above $300 (13%+ above spot) restoring asymmetry_ratio above 2.5.
CounterAnalyst targets routinely lag price during strong momentum — near-52w-high with above-200-day MA is a trend-continuation setup, not a top.
Bull_case 'Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)' with avg_surprise_pct 29.76% (including 68% beat on 2026-04-29) and catalyst notes 'Strong earnings: 3B/1M' show execution against estimates is consistently strong.
→stableEarnings track record
- Expectation
- Beat count holds at 3+/4 with avg_surprise_pct above 20% by the 2026-07-30 print.
CounterQ4 2025 missed by -0.49% — a beat streak operating at this magnitude is one quarter from being a 2/4 narrative.
Insider signal BEARISH with 37 sells / 0 buys over 90 days and net -195,774 shares — 37 sell transactions in a quarter is unusually high frequency for a single ticker, even adjusted for AMZN's executive headcount.
→stableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Sell_count drops below 15 with buy_count >= 1 on the next refresh.
CounterAMZN's stock-comp-heavy executive comp produces high baseline sell counts via 10b5-1 plans; without dollar values (net_value_90d null) the 'BEARISH' label may not reflect discretionary conviction.
V9 setup_type RANGE_BOUND with RSI 40 mid-range and Bollinger mid-band, plus momentum 4.7 with soft warning 'momentum at 4.7 (below the engine's 5.5 threshold) (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)' — chart lacks a directional thesis.
→stableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Momentum subscore rises above 5.5 with RSI > 55 and setup_type advancing to BREAKOUT or CONTINUATION within 2 refreshes.
CounterRANGE_BOUND from $250-$290 is consistent with consolidation after the prior leg up; volume accumulation (rising OBV) suggests the next break is upward.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.1 |
| ROA | 4.6 |
| Gross margin | 6.1 |
| Op margin | 5.3 |
| Net margin | 6.1 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.9 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 11% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 7.2 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $51,552,319 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 7.2 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.8 |
| support resistance | 3.4 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.5 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| put call | 3.8 |
| implied vol | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.1 |
| debt equity | 7.8 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:62d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.10
Upside
+6.3%
Downside
5.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.47>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 8.3; weakest: Peer rank at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.3, Catalyst at 7.6, and Sentiment at 7.3; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.8, Momentum at 4.3, and Value at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Bull_case cites 'Wide economic moat' corroborated by quality.notes 'Wide economic moat', 'Compounder quality: strong returns + growth' and Piotroski F 8/9 — the structural durability case is intact.
Trip ifMoat component falls below 6.0 or Piotroski F drops below 5/9.
- P2Bull_case 'Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)' with avg_surprise_pct 29.76% (including 68% beat on 2026-04-29) and catalyst notes 'Strong earnings: 3B/1M' show execution against estimates is consistently strong.
Trip ifBeat count drops to 1/4 with avg_surprise_pct below 10%.
- P3Bear_case 'Thin upside margin: 8.4%' and 'Near 52-week high (4.8% away)' — V9 asymmetry_ratio 1.68 barely clears the 1.5 floor and TP $287.62 leaves limited room before analyst re-rating is needed.
Trip ifPrice crosses the 52-week high and analyst TP fails to advance by 5%+ within 30 days.
- P4Insider signal BEARISH with 37 sells / 0 buys over 90 days and net -195,774 shares — 37 sell transactions in a quarter is unusually high frequency for a single ticker, even adjusted for AMZN's executive headcount.
Trip ifInsider sell_count rises above 50 with net_value_90d below -$100M.
- P5V9 setup_type RANGE_BOUND with RSI 40 mid-range and Bollinger mid-band, plus momentum 4.7 with soft warning 'momentum at 4.7 (below the engine's 5.5 threshold) (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)' — chart lacks a directional thesis.
Trip ifMomentum subscore stays below 4.0 with price below 200-day MA.