Value
2.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.8 |
| PEG | 6.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 40.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.25
- ▸Expensive valuation
AMD · Why this verdict
Why Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroCAUTIOUS
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AMD at $503.89 has strong momentum (7.2, OBV 10/10, above 200-day MA, +38% revenue growth, 3/4 beats) but is overbought (RSI 77) and near 52w-high (0.6% away) with V9 ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE failing — TP $496.82 is BELOW spot — expensive valuation, TSMC supplier concentration, elevated put/call 1.30 produce AVOID; action_note 'Consider reducing position.'
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Engine signal |
|---|---|---|
Bull_case 'Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)', 'Strong growth profile', and 'Positive momentum' with catalyst notes 'Strong earnings: 3B/0M' (3 beats, 0 misses, 1 inline), avg_surprise_pct 5.93%, and growth notes 'Strong growth: 38% YoY'. Bull case (item 1) | Beat count holds at 3+/4 with at least 1 BEAT (not INLINE) by the 2026-08-04 print and revenue growth above 30% YoY. | →stable |
| CounterQ2 2025 INLINE at -0.55% surprise shows beat magnitudes are noisy; if AI accelerator competition compresses average selling prices, beats can flip to misses fast. | ||
Bear_case 'Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC' with risk.notes '1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A)' — AMD is structurally dependent on TSMC for leading-edge nodes, a single-point-of-failure for the AI accelerator roadmap. Bear case (item 1) | Supplier concentration risk count stays at 1 HIGH with no Taiwan-related event in next refresh. | →stable |
| CounterTSMC dependency is universal across fabless semis; this risk is well-priced into AMD's multiple and isn't an idiosyncratic catalyst absent a supply shock. | ||
V9 ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE gate failure with v9.upside_pct -13.8 vs downside_pct 15.0, momentum notes 'Overbought (RSI 77)', bear_case 'Near 52-week high (0.6% away)' — TP $496.82 is $7 BELOW spot $503.89. Engine gate (failed) | Analyst take_profit advances above $580 (15%+ above spot) restoring asymmetry_ratio above 1.0 within 2 refreshes OR price pulls back 10%. | →stable |
| CounterRSI 77 with rising OBV and price above all MAs is classic late-cycle strength; pullbacks rarely exceed 5-7% in this regime before resumption. | ||
Value subscore 2.4 with notes 'Forward P/E: 38.9x', 'PEG: 1.21', 'Expensive valuation' — AI accelerator narrative has already lifted the multiple to a premium with peg approaching 1.5. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E compresses below 30x OR earnings_growth re-rates further to keep PEG below 1.5 within 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterGrowth at 38% YoY pulled-forward + AI cycle TAM expansion keeps PEG anchored below 1.5; multiple compression historically happens at growth deceleration inflection. | ||
Insider signal BEARISH with 46 sells / 0 buys over 90 days and net -338,119 shares (last 2026-05-20) — extreme sustained insider distribution at 52w highs (52w_position 9.9/10) and overbought RSI 77. Insider transaction read | Sell_count drops below 15 with buy_count >= 1 on the next refresh. | →stable |
| CounterAMD stock-comp-heavy executive package produces high baseline sell counts via 10b5-1; absence of dollar value (net_value_90d null) means discretionary signal is unscored. | ||
Bull_case 'Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)', 'Strong growth profile', and 'Positive momentum' with catalyst notes 'Strong earnings: 3B/0M' (3 beats, 0 misses, 1 inline), avg_surprise_pct 5.93%, and growth notes 'Strong growth: 38% YoY'.
→stableBull case (item 1)
- Expectation
- Beat count holds at 3+/4 with at least 1 BEAT (not INLINE) by the 2026-08-04 print and revenue growth above 30% YoY.
CounterQ2 2025 INLINE at -0.55% surprise shows beat magnitudes are noisy; if AI accelerator competition compresses average selling prices, beats can flip to misses fast.
Bear_case 'Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC' with risk.notes '1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A)' — AMD is structurally dependent on TSMC for leading-edge nodes, a single-point-of-failure for the AI accelerator roadmap.
→stableBear case (item 1)
- Expectation
- Supplier concentration risk count stays at 1 HIGH with no Taiwan-related event in next refresh.
CounterTSMC dependency is universal across fabless semis; this risk is well-priced into AMD's multiple and isn't an idiosyncratic catalyst absent a supply shock.
V9 ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE gate failure with v9.upside_pct -13.8 vs downside_pct 15.0, momentum notes 'Overbought (RSI 77)', bear_case 'Near 52-week high (0.6% away)' — TP $496.82 is $7 BELOW spot $503.89.
→stableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Analyst take_profit advances above $580 (15%+ above spot) restoring asymmetry_ratio above 1.0 within 2 refreshes OR price pulls back 10%.
CounterRSI 77 with rising OBV and price above all MAs is classic late-cycle strength; pullbacks rarely exceed 5-7% in this regime before resumption.
Value subscore 2.4 with notes 'Forward P/E: 38.9x', 'PEG: 1.21', 'Expensive valuation' — AI accelerator narrative has already lifted the multiple to a premium with peg approaching 1.5.
→stableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E compresses below 30x OR earnings_growth re-rates further to keep PEG below 1.5 within 2 refreshes.
CounterGrowth at 38% YoY pulled-forward + AI cycle TAM expansion keeps PEG anchored below 1.5; multiple compression historically happens at growth deceleration inflection.
Insider signal BEARISH with 46 sells / 0 buys over 90 days and net -338,119 shares (last 2026-05-20) — extreme sustained insider distribution at 52w highs (52w_position 9.9/10) and overbought RSI 77.
→stableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Sell_count drops below 15 with buy_count >= 1 on the next refresh.
CounterAMD stock-comp-heavy executive package produces high baseline sell counts via 10b5-1; absence of dollar value (net_value_90d null) means discretionary signal is unscored.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.7 |
| ROA | 2.4 |
| Gross margin | 6.6 |
| Op margin | 5.8 |
| Net margin | 6.7 |
| Current ratio | 9.2 |
| FCF quality | 9.8 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 143% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 38% YoY
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 3.8 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $117,259,956 (0.014% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.2 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.9 |
| beta | 2.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 75%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:67d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.06
Upside
-15.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 2.40>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.3 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.06 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.6, and Momentum at 7.2; the weakest are Value at 2.4, Technical at 3.8, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.06 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Bull_case 'Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)', 'Strong growth profile', and 'Positive momentum' with catalyst notes 'Strong earnings: 3B/0M' (3 beats, 0 misses, 1 inline), avg_surprise_pct 5.93%, and growth notes 'Strong growth: 38% YoY'.
Trip ifBeat count drops to 1/4 with avg_surprise_pct below 2%.
- P2V9 ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE gate failure with v9.upside_pct -13.8 vs downside_pct 15.0, momentum notes 'Overbought (RSI 77)', bear_case 'Near 52-week high (0.6% away)' — TP $496.82 is $7 BELOW spot $503.89.
Trip ifAsymmetry_ratio stays below -0.5 for 3 consecutive refreshes.
- P3Bear_case 'Concentration risk — Supplier: TSMC' with risk.notes '1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A)' — AMD is structurally dependent on TSMC for leading-edge nodes, a single-point-of-failure for the AI accelerator roadmap.
Trip ifA 2nd HIGH-severity concentration risk adds to bear_case (>= 2 HIGH total).
- P4Value subscore 2.4 with notes 'Forward P/E: 38.9x', 'PEG: 1.21', 'Expensive valuation' — AI accelerator narrative has already lifted the multiple to a premium with peg approaching 1.5.
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 50x with PEG above 2.0.
- P5Insider signal BEARISH with 46 sells / 0 buys over 90 days and net -338,119 shares (last 2026-05-20) — extreme sustained insider distribution at 52w highs (52w_position 9.9/10) and overbought RSI 77.
Trip ifInsider sell_count rises above 100 over the next 90 days.