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AMBAAmbarella, Inc.Sell5.3·$71.45+12.48%
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Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $71.45: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Ambarella designs AI SoCs for edge and physical AI applications including security cameras, automotive systems, and robotics, with CVflow architecture targeting transformer-based AI inference. Revenue flows primarily through WT Microelectronics, the company's non-exclusive Asia... Read more

$71.45+18.7% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#12 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.70%
Stop $63.91Target $81.56(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$93.75+31.2%12 analysts
$81.56our TP
$71.45price
$93.75mean
$120

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $71.45: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — Ambarella, Inc.

Generated 2026-06-09T22:11:39Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 27, 202680d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: WT Microelectronics (70.0%)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)55.4
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA-40.2
Profit Mgn-17.2%
ROE-11.8%
Rev Growth16.9%
Beta2.15
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.78neutral
IV101%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerWT Microelectronics70%
    10-K Item 1A: 'the customer representing 10% or more of our revenue was WT Microelectronics Co., Ltd., or WT, which serves as our non-exclusive sales representative and fulfillment partner in Asia other than Japan, accounted for approximately 70% of total revenue'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-27Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved FY2027 Annual Bonus Plan on February 24, 2026, with aggregate target pool ~28% larger than FY2026. CEO Feng-Ming Wang target is 100% of salary. Routine compensatory arrangement.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-26Item 5.02LOW
    Gregory M. Bryant appointed to the Board and Compensation Committee effective February 23, 2026. Former EVP at Analog Devices. Routine board appointment; no officer departures.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.3
Ma Position
4.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Unprofitable operations — net margin -17.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
5.3
Moat
5.8
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
7.8
Current Ratio
8.3
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 12%, FCF yield 1.7%)
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $63.25Resistance $96.36

Price Targets

$64
$82
A.Upside+14.1%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-27 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMBA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $71.45: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $63.91. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMBA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $81.56 (+18.7% upside). Prior stop was $63.91. Stop-loss: $63.91.

What are the risks of investing in AMBA?

Concentration risk — Customer: WT Microelectronics (70.0%); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is AMBA overvalued or undervalued?

Ambarella, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 55.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMBA?

20 analysts cover AMBA with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $94.

What does Ambarella, Inc. do?Ambarella designs AI SoCs for edge and physical AI applications including security cameras, automotive systems, and...

Ambarella designs AI SoCs for edge and physical AI applications including security cameras, automotive systems, and robotics, with CVflow architecture targeting transformer-based AI inference. Revenue flows primarily through WT Microelectronics, the company's non-exclusive Asia distributor that represented ~70% of total fiscal 2026 revenue.

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