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Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $66.27: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Ambarella develops low-power AI-enabled SoC semiconductors for edge AI applications including automotive cameras, security cameras, and robotics, with CV7 (edge AI), CV3 (autonomous driving), and N1 (LLM inference) families on 4-5nm process technology. In fiscal year 2026,... Read more

$66.27+16.1% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#9 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Stop $61.30Target $76.49(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$87.92+32.7%12 analysts
$76.49our TP
$66.27price
$87.92mean
$115

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $66.27: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 84. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: WT Microelectronics (70.0%)
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)60.7
Mkt Cap$2.9B
EV/EBITDA-37.4
Profit Mgn-19.4%
ROE-13.1%
Rev Growth20.1%
Beta2.01
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.80neutral
IV74%elevated
Max Pain$35-47.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerWT Microelectronics70%
    10-K Item 1A: 'the customer representing 10% or more of our revenue was WT Microelectronics Co., Ltd., or WT...accounted for approximately 70% of total revenue.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-27Item 5.02LOW
    On February 24, 2026, the Compensation Committee approved the FY2027 Annual Bonus Plan. CEO Feng-Ming Wang bonus target is 100% of annual base salary; other executives 40-75%. Aggregate target pool is ~28% larger than FY2026. Routine compensatory arrangement; no departure or appointment.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-26Item 5.02LOW
    On February 23, 2026, the Board appointed Gregory M. Bryant as a director and Compensation Committee member. Bryant most recently served as President, Global Business Units at Analog Devices Inc. (March 2022-March 2025). No arrangements or related party transactions reportable.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.9
Bollinger
1.4
52w Position
3.6

Unprofitable operations — net margin -19.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Moat
5.0
Fcf Quality
6.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
7.8
Current Ratio
7.9
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 22%, FCF yield 3.0%)No competitive moat

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
2.1
Ma Position
6.5
Macd
10.0
Overbought bear rally (RSI 84)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 28d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
84 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $49.24Resistance $67.57

Price Targets

$61
$76
A.Upside+15.4%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-28 (28d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMBA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $66.27: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 84. Prior stop was $61.30. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMBA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $76.49 (+16.1% upside). Prior stop was $61.30. Stop-loss: $61.30.

What are the risks of investing in AMBA?

Concentration risk — Customer: WT Microelectronics (70.0%); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is AMBA overvalued or undervalued?

Ambarella, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 60.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMBA?

21 analysts cover AMBA with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $88.

What does Ambarella, Inc. do?Ambarella develops low-power AI-enabled SoC semiconductors for edge AI applications including automotive cameras,...

Ambarella develops low-power AI-enabled SoC semiconductors for edge AI applications including automotive cameras, security cameras, and robotics, with CV7 (edge AI), CV3 (autonomous driving), and N1 (LLM inference) families on 4-5nm process technology. In fiscal year 2026, distributor WT Microelectronics represented approximately 70% of total revenue as the primary Asia fulfillment partner.

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