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Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $76.25: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.94; Below-average business quality.

Ambarella designs AI SoCs for edge and physical AI applications including security cameras, automotive systems, and robotics, with CVflow architecture targeting transformer-based AI inference. Revenue flows primarily through WT Microelectronics, the company's non-exclusive Asia... Read more

$76.25+6.5% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#14 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.51%
Stop $71.32Target $81.70(resistance)A.R:R -0.0:1
Analyst target$87.92+15.3%12 analysts
$81.70our TP
$76.25price
$87.92mean
$65
$115

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $76.25: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.94; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: WT Microelectronics (70.0%)
Target reached (-0.3% upside)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)72.6
Mkt Cap$3.5B
EV/EBITDA-45.6
Profit Mgn-19.4%
ROE-13.1%
Rev Growth20.1%
Beta2.16
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.94bearish
IV111%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerWT Microelectronics70%
    10-K Item 1A: 'the customer representing 10% or more of our revenue was WT Microelectronics Co., Ltd., or WT, which serves as our non-exclusive sales representative and fulfillment partner in Asia other than Japan, accounted for approximately 70% of total revenue'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-27Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved FY2027 Annual Bonus Plan on February 24, 2026, with aggregate target pool ~28% larger than FY2026. CEO Feng-Ming Wang target is 100% of salary. Routine compensatory arrangement.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-26Item 5.02LOW
    Gregory M. Bryant appointed to the Board and Compensation Committee effective February 23, 2026. Former EVP at Analog Devices. Routine board appointment; no officer departures.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Volatile — 5.5% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
2.7
Beta
2.8
Short Interest
6.5
Days To Cover
7.1
Elevated put/call: 2.94High IV: 111%Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Unprofitable operations — net margin -19.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Moat
5.8
Fcf Quality
6.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
7.8
Current Ratio
7.9
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 22%, FCF yield 2.5%)
GatesA.R:R -0.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 9d<=14d (soft)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $59.07Resistance $83.37

Price Targets

$71
$82
A.Upside+7.1%
A.R:R-0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-28 (9d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMBA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $76.25: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.94; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $71.32. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMBA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $81.70 (+6.5% upside). Prior stop was $71.32. Stop-loss: $71.32.

What are the risks of investing in AMBA?

Concentration risk — Customer: WT Microelectronics (70.0%); Target reached (-0.3% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is AMBA overvalued or undervalued?

Ambarella, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 72.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMBA?

21 analysts cover AMBA with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $88.

What does Ambarella, Inc. do?Ambarella designs AI SoCs for edge and physical AI applications including security cameras, automotive systems, and...

Ambarella designs AI SoCs for edge and physical AI applications including security cameras, automotive systems, and robotics, with CVflow architecture targeting transformer-based AI inference. Revenue flows primarily through WT Microelectronics, the company's non-exclusive Asia distributor that represented ~70% of total fiscal 2026 revenue.

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