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AKTSAktis Oncology, Inc.Sell5.8·$15.20
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Aktis Oncology is a pre-profit biotech with 95.9% upside to the analyst target and 111% YoY revenue growth, but quality is below the 4.0 floor, the stock is 53% off its high, and short interest is 27%.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Floor→Stable
  • Large Analyst Upside→Stable
  • Single Lead Asset Concentration↑Improving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 30, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Aktis Oncology, Inc. (AKTS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellGrowthQualityShortModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 7 days (2026-11-12). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.20: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 7.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 27%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Aktis Oncology is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing miniprotein radioconjugates that deliver alpha-emitting radioisotopes to solid tumors, with lead candidate [225Ac]Ac-AKY-1189 targeting Nectin-4-expressing cancers in a Phase 1b trial. The company has not... Read more

$15.20+105.3% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#60 of 241 Biotechnology
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield—
Stop $14.14Analyst target $31.21(−13% haircut)A.R:R 7.7:1
Analyst consensus$35.88+136.0%8 analysts with price targets
$31.21Analyst target
$15.20price
$35.88mean
$40

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.20: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 7.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 27%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

No fresh coverage since Oct 2, 2026

Recent Developments — Aktis Oncology, Inc.

Latest item Oct 2, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:44:07Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 12, 20267d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Pipeline: lead product candidate [225Ac]Ac-AKY-1189
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)-7.1
Mkt Cap$845M
EV/EBITDA-4.0
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE—
Rev Growth111.4%
Beta—
DividendNone
Analysts with ratings16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.09bullish
IV159%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHpipelinelead product candidate [225Ac]Ac-AKY-1189
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our business is highly dependent on our lead product candidate, [225Ac]Ac-AKY-1189, for the treatment of Nectin-4 expressing tumors.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-16Item 5.02LOW
    Board appointed Glenn Gormley, MD, PhD as a Class I director effective April 15, 2026, and named him Co-Chair of the newly created Science and Technology Committee. Routine board appointment; no departure involved.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MEarnings in 7 days

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.9
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
4.5
Macd
8.2
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Current Ratio
5.0
Piotroski F
5.6
Moat
6.5
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 7.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
45 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $13.96Resistance $18.21

Price Targets

$14
$31
A.Upside+105.3%
A.R:R7.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-12 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AKTS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.20: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 7.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 27%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Prior stop was $14.14. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AKTS stock price target?

Analyst target: $31.21 (+105.3% upside). Prior stop was $14.14. Stop-loss: $14.14.

What are the risks of investing in AKTS?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: lead product candidate [225Ac]Ac-AKY-1189; Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is AKTS overvalued or undervalued?

Aktis Oncology, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -7.1). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AKTS?

16 analysts rate AKTS, with a consensus score of 4.4/5. 8 analysts publish price targets averaging $36.

What does Aktis Oncology, Inc. do?Aktis Oncology is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing miniprotein radioconjugates that deliver...

Aktis Oncology is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing miniprotein radioconjugates that deliver alpha-emitting radioisotopes to solid tumors, with lead candidate [225Ac]Ac-AKY-1189 targeting Nectin-4-expressing cancers in a Phase 1b trial. The company has not generated product revenue and funds operations through equity financings and a May 2024 discovery collaboration with Eli Lilly, which paid a $60.0 million upfront fee and could contribute up to $1.2 billion in milestones. Aktis held $226.8 million in cash as of December 31, 2025, plus $335.3 million in IPO proceeds from its J

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