Value
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 6.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 8.6 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.74
ADSK · Why this verdict
Why Autodesk (ADSK) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Autodesk combines a wide economic moat, return on equity of 50%, free cash flow conversion at 209% of net income, and a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with a valuation that screens attractively at a forward price-to-earnings of 13.9x and PEG of 0.76 — offering roughly 48% upside to the analyst consensus target at a reward-to-risk ratio of nearly 8-to-1; the principal obstacle is an ongoing technical breakdown that must stabilize before the fundamental setup can be realized.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings of 13.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.76, the stock offers a meaningful discount relative to its earnings growth rate, while analyst consensus implies roughly 48% upside to the price target — a reward-to-risk ratio of nearly 8-to-1 in the current setup. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings estimates remain stable or rise, keeping the PEG below 1.0 and preserving the 48% upside gap to the analyst consensus target over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA large gap between price and analyst target can persist absent a catalyst that unlocks it; if technical conditions remain weak and the stock continues trading below trend, the valuation gap may not close within a meaningful holding period. | ||
With 64% of revenue sourced internationally, the business carries meaningful exposure to currency fluctuations, geopolitical friction, and regional demand cycles that can introduce earnings volatility absent in a more domestically-concentrated peer. Bear case | International revenue share stays below 70% and does not produce a foreign-exchange headwind exceeding 3 percentage points on reported revenue growth in any of the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGeographic breadth across 64% international revenue also insulates the business from a domestic-only slowdown; if international design and construction markets outperform the US over the next cycle, the concentration becomes a tailwind. | ||
The business earns a return on equity of 50%, converts free cash flow at 209% of reported net income, passes the Rule of 40 at a combined score of 59, and has been assessed as having a wide economic moat — all indicating a franchise with durable competitive advantages and exceptional cash generation. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion stays above 150% of net income and the Rule of 40 remains above 50 over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA return on equity of 50% may be partially flattered by a buyback-shrunk equity base rather than pure operational return; even with a wide moat assessment, the moat score of 7.5 out of 10 implies the advantage is meaningful but not impregnable, and conversion economics could be pressured by heavier reinvestment. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four consecutive quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 6.7%, demonstrating a pattern of consistently under-promising and over-delivering on results. Earnings | The company extends the beat streak to a fifth consecutive quarter when reporting approximately 72 days from now, with a positive EPS surprise of at least 4%. | →Stable |
| CounterGiven that 64% of revenue is sourced internationally, any foreign-exchange headwind or regional softness could narrow the gap between management guidance and actual results, making future beats harder to deliver even if underlying demand holds. | ||
A death cross has formed, the stock sits below its 200-day moving average with the slope declining at roughly 3.2% over the past 30 days, RSI is at 28 suggesting capitulation-level selling pressure, and on-balance volume is falling — a meaningful near-term headwind regardless of fundamental quality. Momentum breakdown | Momentum recovers if RSI rises back above 40, the stock reclaims the 200-day moving average, and the 30-day MA slope turns positive within 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDeep oversold conditions in high-quality businesses have historically preceded sharp recoveries once sentiment turns; RSI at 28 can mark a washout low rather than the start of a sustained decline. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings of 13.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.76, the stock offers a meaningful discount relative to its earnings growth rate, while analyst consensus implies roughly 48% upside to the price target — a reward-to-risk ratio of nearly 8-to-1 in the current setup.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates remain stable or rise, keeping the PEG below 1.0 and preserving the 48% upside gap to the analyst consensus target over the next 12 months.
CounterA large gap between price and analyst target can persist absent a catalyst that unlocks it; if technical conditions remain weak and the stock continues trading below trend, the valuation gap may not close within a meaningful holding period.
With 64% of revenue sourced internationally, the business carries meaningful exposure to currency fluctuations, geopolitical friction, and regional demand cycles that can introduce earnings volatility absent in a more domestically-concentrated peer.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- International revenue share stays below 70% and does not produce a foreign-exchange headwind exceeding 3 percentage points on reported revenue growth in any of the next four quarters.
CounterGeographic breadth across 64% international revenue also insulates the business from a domestic-only slowdown; if international design and construction markets outperform the US over the next cycle, the concentration becomes a tailwind.
The business earns a return on equity of 50%, converts free cash flow at 209% of reported net income, passes the Rule of 40 at a combined score of 59, and has been assessed as having a wide economic moat — all indicating a franchise with durable competitive advantages and exceptional cash generation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion stays above 150% of net income and the Rule of 40 remains above 50 over the next four reported quarters.
CounterA return on equity of 50% may be partially flattered by a buyback-shrunk equity base rather than pure operational return; even with a wide moat assessment, the moat score of 7.5 out of 10 implies the advantage is meaningful but not impregnable, and conversion economics could be pressured by heavier reinvestment.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four consecutive quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 6.7%, demonstrating a pattern of consistently under-promising and over-delivering on results.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company extends the beat streak to a fifth consecutive quarter when reporting approximately 72 days from now, with a positive EPS surprise of at least 4%.
CounterGiven that 64% of revenue is sourced internationally, any foreign-exchange headwind or regional softness could narrow the gap between management guidance and actual results, making future beats harder to deliver even if underlying demand holds.
A death cross has formed, the stock sits below its 200-day moving average with the slope declining at roughly 3.2% over the past 30 days, RSI is at 28 suggesting capitulation-level selling pressure, and on-balance volume is falling — a meaningful near-term headwind regardless of fundamental quality.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers if RSI rises back above 40, the stock reclaims the 200-day moving average, and the 30-day MA slope turns positive within 6 months.
CounterDeep oversold conditions in high-quality businesses have historically preceded sharp recoveries once sentiment turns; RSI at 28 can mark a washout low rather than the start of a sustained decline.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 7.5 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.7 |
| Current ratio | 3.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 50%
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 209% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
8.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 14, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.3 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 67%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $1,666,629 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.0 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.9 |
| support resistance | 9.2 |
| 52w position | 1.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 1.3 |
| put call | 7.5 |
| implied vol | 3.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 5.9 |
- ▸Above max pain $135
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.9 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.74, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.6/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:6.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:63d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
6.00
Upside
+53.8%
Downside
9.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 14, MACD bearish
EdgeTEMP_HEADWIND — High quality (8.5) with weak momentum (2.8)
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.5 and growth 8.6 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 6.00 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.6, Quality at 8.5, and Sentiment at 8.4; the weakest are Momentum at 2.8, Peer rank at 4.4, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.00 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The business earns a return on equity of 50%, converts free cash flow at 209% of reported net income, passes the Rule of 40 at a combined score of 59, and has been assessed as having a wide economic moat — all indicating a franchise with durable competitive advantages and exceptional cash generation.
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 150% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2At a forward price-to-earnings of 13.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.76, the stock offers a meaningful discount relative to its earnings growth rate, while analyst consensus implies roughly 48% upside to the price target — a reward-to-risk ratio of nearly 8-to-1 in the current setup.
Trip ifForward earnings estimates decline such that the PEG ratio rises above 1.5, or upside to the analyst target compresses below 20%.
- P3The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four consecutive quarters, with an average positive surprise of roughly 6.7%, demonstrating a pattern of consistently under-promising and over-delivering on results.
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4A death cross has formed, the stock sits below its 200-day moving average with the slope declining at roughly 3.2% over the past 30 days, RSI is at 28 suggesting capitulation-level selling pressure, and on-balance volume is falling — a meaningful near-term headwind regardless of fundamental quality.
Trip ifPrice reclaims the 200-day moving average and RSI rises above 50 for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P5With 64% of revenue sourced internationally, the business carries meaningful exposure to currency fluctuations, geopolitical friction, and regional demand cycles that can introduce earnings volatility absent in a more domestically-concentrated peer.
Trip ifInternational revenue share exceeds 70% and foreign-exchange headwinds reduce reported revenue growth by more than 5 percentage points in 2 consecutive quarters.