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ABTCAmerican Bitcoin Corp.Sell5.8·$7.03+1.59%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

American Bitcoin Corp is in a confirmed technical downtrend with a failed momentum gate and quality below the exit threshold, though modest insider buying and strong growth metrics offer a partial counterweight to an otherwise speculative, no-edge setup.

Thesis pillars

  • Momentum Breakdown Death CrossDeteriorating
  • Quality Below Exit ThresholdDeteriorating
  • Institutional Reach Caps EdgeDeteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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American Bitcoin Corp. (ABTC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.03: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 5.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

American Bitcoin Corp is a Bitcoin mining and treasury-accumulation company that owns approximately 78,000 Bitcoin miners with roughly 25 EH/s of hashrate, operating at four sites hosted and managed exclusively by Hut 8 in the United States and Canada. The company earns Bitcoin... Read more

$7.03+84.0% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#31 of 50 Capital Markets
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-4.99%
Stop $6.44Target $12.75(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 5.6:1
Analyst target$15.00+113.4%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.03: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 5.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About American Bitcoin Corp.

About American Bitcoin Corp.

American Bitcoin Corp held approximately 5,401 Bitcoin in reserve as of December 31, 2025, growing to roughly 6,963 Bitcoin by March 25, 2026, generated by a fleet of approximately 78,000 Bitcoin miners producing about 25 EH/s of hashrate at four sites in the United States and Canada. The company operates as both a Bitcoin miner and a public-market Bitcoin treasury vehicle, with mining and hosting infrastructure managed exclusively by Hut 8.

American Bitcoin Corp generates revenue almost entirely from Bitcoin mining rewards, earned by contributing hashrate to third-party mining pools operated by Foundry and Luxor, which pay out a pro-rata share of rewards after a pool fee currently below 1.0%. Its miners run at four sites - Alpha, Salt Creek, Medicine Hat and Vega - hosted and managed exclusively by Hut 8 under long-term colocation and management service agreements, with USDMG passing through 100% of facility operating costs plus a monthly fee. Mined and purchased Bitcoin is held mainly in cold storage with third-party custodians Coinbase Custody and Anchorage Digital Bank, and a portion of reserves, including 2,776 Bitcoin as of December 31, 2025, is pledged to equipment supplier Bitmain in connection with mining-hardware purchase agreements, exposing the company to Bitmain's counterparty performance.

Show full overview

American Bitcoin Corp's operations concentrate multiple points of counterparty reliance in a small set of named partners: Hut 8 is the exclusive provider of hosting, colocation and management services for all of the company's mining equipment until the underlying service agreements expire or are terminated, and the 10-K flags that a Hut 8 default or facility disruption would directly curtail production. Because the business holds a single commodity, Bitcoin, on its balance sheet at fair value under ASU 2023-08, quarterly results and the value of its securities move directly with Bitcoin's price rather than with any diversified asset base or hedging program in place.

See also: Financial Services · Capital Markets

From American Bitcoin Corp.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202683d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: Bitcoin
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Hut 8
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)346.5
Mkt Cap$844M
EV/EBITDA-3.7
Profit Mgn-71.7%
ROE-38.5%
Rev Growth121.3%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.15bullish
IV139%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommodityBitcoin
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our investments are highly concentrated in a single asset, Bitcoin.'
  • HIGHcounterpartyHut 8
    10-K Item 1: 'Hut 8 and its affiliates will be the exclusive providers to us of (i) hosting and colocation services with respect to all digital asset mining equipment owned by us'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyFoundry and Luxor
    10-K Item 1A: 'We receive Bitcoin rewards from our mining activity through third-party mining pool operators, including Foundry and Luxor.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
1.0
Support Resistance
2.2
Gap
5.0

Unprofitable operations — net margin -71.7%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Current Ratio
0.8
Piotroski F
5.6
Gross Margin
6.5
Moat
6.5
Cash-burning: FCF -15% of revenueQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/2M
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.9>=5.5A.R:R 5.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $4.92Resistance $7.50

Price Targets

$6
$13
A.Upside+84.0%
A.R:R5.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ABTC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.03: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 5.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Prior stop was $6.44. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ABTC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.75 (+84.0% upside). Prior stop was $6.44. Stop-loss: $6.44.

What are the risks of investing in ABTC?

Concentration risk — Commodity: Bitcoin; Concentration risk — Counterparty: Hut 8; Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).

Is ABTC overvalued or undervalued?

American Bitcoin Corp. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 346.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ABTC?

8 analysts cover ABTC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $15.

What does American Bitcoin Corp. do?American Bitcoin Corp is a Bitcoin mining and treasury-accumulation company that owns approximately 78,000 Bitcoin...

American Bitcoin Corp is a Bitcoin mining and treasury-accumulation company that owns approximately 78,000 Bitcoin miners with roughly 25 EH/s of hashrate, operating at four sites hosted and managed exclusively by Hut 8 in the United States and Canada. The company earns Bitcoin rewards through third-party mining pools Foundry and Luxor and had accumulated approximately 5,401 Bitcoin in reserve as of December 31, 2025, pursuing a strategy of raising capital in public markets to expand its Bitcoin holdings per share.

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