Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.8 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
YEXT · Why this verdict
Why Yext (YEXT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Yext trades at a statistically cheap valuation but shows declining revenue, an overbought technical bounce inside a confirmed downtrend, and a negative asymmetry reading, adding up to a genuinely unfavorable risk-reward setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is declining about 1% year-over-year even as the stock trades at a deep discount (forward P/E near 7.5x, PEG 0.03), raising the question of whether the cheap valuation is a real opportunity or a shrinking business. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive, above 0% YoY, if the valuation gap reflects a genuine opportunity rather than a value trap. | →Stable |
| CounterThe bull case still flags an attractive valuation, and cheap multiples can persist for structurally challenged software companies without ever re-rating. | ||
The stock is in an overbought bear-market rally with RSI at 83 while still trading below its 200-day moving average with a confirmed downtrend (MA slope -9.7%/30 days). Momentum breakdown | The 200-day MA slope should turn positive if the recent bounce marks a genuine trend reversal rather than a temporary rally. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising on-balance volume in the same data suggests real buying interest, not just a technical head-fake. | ||
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -0.9, reflecting negative risk-reward as the analyst target has already been reached and leverage (D/E 9.2) further penalizes the setup. Engine gate (failed) | Asymmetry ratio should turn positive and clear 1.5 if the risk-reward setup improves. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh leverage combined with negative asymmetry could also foreshadow deeper price declines rather than a resolvable near-term setup. | ||
Yext has fallen 46% from its 52-week high, more than the engine's 40% threshold for flagging speculative-only names, and its $0.5B market cap keeps it below institutional reach. Suitability rationale | Drawdown from the 52-week high should narrow below 40% if the stock stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterSmall, thinly institutionally-owned stocks in sustained downtrends can continue making new lows without a floor. | ||
Revenue is declining about 1% year-over-year even as the stock trades at a deep discount (forward P/E near 7.5x, PEG 0.03), raising the question of whether the cheap valuation is a real opportunity or a shrinking business.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive, above 0% YoY, if the valuation gap reflects a genuine opportunity rather than a value trap.
CounterThe bull case still flags an attractive valuation, and cheap multiples can persist for structurally challenged software companies without ever re-rating.
The stock is in an overbought bear-market rally with RSI at 83 while still trading below its 200-day moving average with a confirmed downtrend (MA slope -9.7%/30 days).
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day MA slope should turn positive if the recent bounce marks a genuine trend reversal rather than a temporary rally.
CounterRising on-balance volume in the same data suggests real buying interest, not just a technical head-fake.
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -0.9, reflecting negative risk-reward as the analyst target has already been reached and leverage (D/E 9.2) further penalizes the setup.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Asymmetry ratio should turn positive and clear 1.5 if the risk-reward setup improves.
CounterHigh leverage combined with negative asymmetry could also foreshadow deeper price declines rather than a resolvable near-term setup.
Yext has fallen 46% from its 52-week high, more than the engine's 40% threshold for flagging speculative-only names, and its $0.5B market cap keeps it below institutional reach.
→StableSuitability rationale
- Expectation
- Drawdown from the 52-week high should narrow below 40% if the stock stabilizes.
CounterSmall, thinly institutionally-owned stocks in sustained downtrends can continue making new lows without a floor.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 0.5 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 4.6 |
| Net margin | 4.5 |
| Current ratio | 3.2 |
| FCF quality | 5.6 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 48%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 74% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 5 (fail)
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 1.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
- ▸Volume surge (3.4x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 2.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.70 (n=10)
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 3.5 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $896,128 (0.132% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 0.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 5.6 |
| 52w position | 4.2 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (13.2%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 4.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.25
- ▸High IV: 86%
Catalyst
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.6 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:RISK_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.4>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-2.33
Upside
-34.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -2.3=NEGATIVE outcome against Catalyst at 7.9 and asymmetric R:R of -2.33.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.9, Value at 7.1, and Growth at 6.0; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.6, Peer rank at 3.0, and Technical at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Declining Revenue Cheap Valuation
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 5% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Overbought Bounce Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifThe 200-day MA slope rises above 0%/30d from the current -9.7%/30d.
- P3Negative Asymmetry Limited Reward
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.5 from the current -0.9.
- P4Small Cap Drawdown Institutional Gap
Trip ifDrawdown from the 52-week high narrows to less than 40%, from the current 46%.