Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 8.5 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.75
- ▸Attractively valued
XRAY · Why this verdict
Why DENTSPLY SIRONA (XRAY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With a forward P/E of 6.6x, a PEG ratio of 0.72, and peer-ranking in the top decile for value, Dentsply is priced as a deep-value recovery candidate, but that valuation reflects genuine fundamental weakness rather than temporary mispricing given the quality score of 3.5. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings estimates stabilize and begin rising, pushing the forward P/E above 8x within 12 months as cost restructuring gains traction. | →Stable |
| CounterDental equipment companies facing competitive and procedural-volume headwinds have historically stayed cheap for multiple years during restructuring cycles before realizing valuation expansion. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, positive free cash flow with a 4% FCF margin and 6.4% FCF yield, and volume accumulation on the chart suggest the company's core cash generation is more intact than the quality score and sentiment imply. Quality breakdown | FCF margin improves above 6% within 12 months as operating expenses are restructured and dental demand volumes recover. | →Stable |
| CounterFCF margins of 4% in a medical instruments company with no competitive moat and declining revenue trends are not high enough to drive multiple expansion on their own. | ||
Dentsply has missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of negative 5.5%, and the 200-day moving average is declining at negative 4.7% per month, combining fundamental and technical evidence of a company struggling to stabilize its earnings trajectory. Earnings | EPS beats emerge in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters and the average EPS surprise turns positive, above 0%, signaling the earnings trough has been reached. | →Stable |
| CounterDental equipment demand is tied to dental office capital spending cycles, which tend to be multi-year in duration, making rapid earnings recovery unlikely without a meaningful catalyst. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 8.50 is among the highest in the screened universe and indicates that options market participants are paying a substantial premium to hedge downside risk, which is consistent with the earnings miss pattern and quality concerns. Key risks | Put-to-call ratio falls below 3.0 within 12 months as earnings stabilize and hedging demand eases, reducing the implied uncertainty premium in options pricing. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put-to-call ratios can be contrarian bullish signals when they reach extremes, as they may reflect maximum pessimism before a sentiment reversal. | ||
With a forward P/E of 6.6x, a PEG ratio of 0.72, and peer-ranking in the top decile for value, Dentsply is priced as a deep-value recovery candidate, but that valuation reflects genuine fundamental weakness rather than temporary mispricing given the quality score of 3.5.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates stabilize and begin rising, pushing the forward P/E above 8x within 12 months as cost restructuring gains traction.
CounterDental equipment companies facing competitive and procedural-volume headwinds have historically stayed cheap for multiple years during restructuring cycles before realizing valuation expansion.
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, positive free cash flow with a 4% FCF margin and 6.4% FCF yield, and volume accumulation on the chart suggest the company's core cash generation is more intact than the quality score and sentiment imply.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin improves above 6% within 12 months as operating expenses are restructured and dental demand volumes recover.
CounterFCF margins of 4% in a medical instruments company with no competitive moat and declining revenue trends are not high enough to drive multiple expansion on their own.
Dentsply has missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of negative 5.5%, and the 200-day moving average is declining at negative 4.7% per month, combining fundamental and technical evidence of a company struggling to stabilize its earnings trajectory.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats emerge in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters and the average EPS surprise turns positive, above 0%, signaling the earnings trough has been reached.
CounterDental equipment demand is tied to dental office capital spending cycles, which tend to be multi-year in duration, making rapid earnings recovery unlikely without a meaningful catalyst.
A put-to-call ratio of 8.50 is among the highest in the screened universe and indicates that options market participants are paying a substantial premium to hedge downside risk, which is consistent with the earnings miss pattern and quality concerns.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falls below 3.0 within 12 months as earnings stabilize and hedging demand eases, reducing the implied uncertainty premium in options pricing.
CounterElevated put-to-call ratios can be contrarian bullish signals when they reach extremes, as they may reflect maximum pessimism before a sentiment reversal.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Dentsply Sirona trades at a deeply discounted forward P/E of 6.6x with 32% analyst upside from current levels, but the business is in a confirmed downtrend, has missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters, and carries an elevated put-to-call ratio of 8.50 that signals heightened institutional hedging activity.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 5.8 |
| Op margin | 1.4 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 4.7 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 4%, FCF yield 5.6%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.9 |
| MACD | 9.7 |
| OBV | 9.3 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $515,799 (0.022% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.7 |
| quality rank | 0.8 |
| growth rank | 1.0 |
Technical
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 4.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.1 |
| days to cover | 6.4 |
| volatility | 2.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.6 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 3.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.16
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 504.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.0>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.23
Upside
+3.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Insider at 6.5, and Momentum at 6.0; the weakest are Technical at 2.3, Growth at 2.5, and Peer rank at 2.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Versus Earnings Deterioration
Trip ifForward earnings estimates decline by more than 20% from current levels, pushing the forward P/E above 8x on lower estimates rather than price appreciation.
- P2Earnings Miss Pattern Downtrend
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below negative 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, indicating deterioration is accelerating.
- P3Elevated Put Call Ratio Hedging
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 12.0, increasing more than 41% above the already elevated current level of 8.50.
- P4Strong Piotroski Quality Backbone
Trip ifPrice falls below $9.43 stop-loss, declining more than 7% from the current $10.14.