Value
7.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 8.5 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.75
- ▸Attractively valued
XRAY · Why this verdict
Why DENTSPLY SIRONA (XRAY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Dentsply Sirona trades at a deeply discounted forward P/E of 6.6x with 32% analyst upside from current levels, but the business is in a confirmed downtrend, has missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters, and carries an elevated put-to-call ratio of 8.50 that signals heightened institutional hedging activity.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With a forward P/E of 6.6x, a PEG ratio of 0.72, and peer-ranking in the top decile for value, Dentsply is priced as a deep-value recovery candidate, but that valuation reflects genuine fundamental weakness rather than temporary mispricing given the quality score of 3.5. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings estimates stabilize and begin rising, pushing the forward P/E above 8x within 12 months as cost restructuring gains traction. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterDental equipment companies facing competitive and procedural-volume headwinds have historically stayed cheap for multiple years during restructuring cycles before realizing valuation expansion. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, positive free cash flow with a 4% FCF margin and 6.4% FCF yield, and volume accumulation on the chart suggest the company's core cash generation is more intact than the quality score and sentiment imply. Quality breakdown | FCF margin improves above 6% within 12 months as operating expenses are restructured and dental demand volumes recover. | →Stable |
| CounterFCF margins of 4% in a medical instruments company with no competitive moat and declining revenue trends are not high enough to drive multiple expansion on their own. | ||
Dentsply has missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of negative 5.5%, and the 200-day moving average is declining at negative 4.7% per month, combining fundamental and technical evidence of a company struggling to stabilize its earnings trajectory. Earnings | EPS beats emerge in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters and the average EPS surprise turns positive, above 0%, signaling the earnings trough has been reached. | →Stable |
| CounterDental equipment demand is tied to dental office capital spending cycles, which tend to be multi-year in duration, making rapid earnings recovery unlikely without a meaningful catalyst. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 8.50 is among the highest in the screened universe and indicates that options market participants are paying a substantial premium to hedge downside risk, which is consistent with the earnings miss pattern and quality concerns. Key risks | Put-to-call ratio falls below 3.0 within 12 months as earnings stabilize and hedging demand eases, reducing the implied uncertainty premium in options pricing. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put-to-call ratios can be contrarian bullish signals when they reach extremes, as they may reflect maximum pessimism before a sentiment reversal. | ||
With a forward P/E of 6.6x, a PEG ratio of 0.72, and peer-ranking in the top decile for value, Dentsply is priced as a deep-value recovery candidate, but that valuation reflects genuine fundamental weakness rather than temporary mispricing given the quality score of 3.5.
Tripped↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates stabilize and begin rising, pushing the forward P/E above 8x within 12 months as cost restructuring gains traction.
CounterDental equipment companies facing competitive and procedural-volume headwinds have historically stayed cheap for multiple years during restructuring cycles before realizing valuation expansion.
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, positive free cash flow with a 4% FCF margin and 6.4% FCF yield, and volume accumulation on the chart suggest the company's core cash generation is more intact than the quality score and sentiment imply.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin improves above 6% within 12 months as operating expenses are restructured and dental demand volumes recover.
CounterFCF margins of 4% in a medical instruments company with no competitive moat and declining revenue trends are not high enough to drive multiple expansion on their own.
Dentsply has missed earnings in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of negative 5.5%, and the 200-day moving average is declining at negative 4.7% per month, combining fundamental and technical evidence of a company struggling to stabilize its earnings trajectory.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats emerge in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters and the average EPS surprise turns positive, above 0%, signaling the earnings trough has been reached.
CounterDental equipment demand is tied to dental office capital spending cycles, which tend to be multi-year in duration, making rapid earnings recovery unlikely without a meaningful catalyst.
A put-to-call ratio of 8.50 is among the highest in the screened universe and indicates that options market participants are paying a substantial premium to hedge downside risk, which is consistent with the earnings miss pattern and quality concerns.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falls below 3.0 within 12 months as earnings stabilize and hedging demand eases, reducing the implied uncertainty premium in options pricing.
CounterElevated put-to-call ratios can be contrarian bullish signals when they reach extremes, as they may reflect maximum pessimism before a sentiment reversal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 5.8 |
| Op margin | 1.4 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 4.7 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 4%, FCF yield 5.0%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $515,799 (0.020% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.7 |
| quality rank | 0.8 |
| growth rank | 1.0 |
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.8 |
| support resistance | 3.2 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.8 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 0.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 3.4 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 17%
- ▸High IV: 83%
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
- ▸Dividend: 5.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.46
Upside
-6.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.8<4.5 outcome against Value at 7.7 and asymmetric R:R of -0.46.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Insider at 7.5, and Sentiment at 5.2; the weakest are Growth at 2.5, Peer rank at 2.9, and Quality at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.46 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Versus Earnings DeteriorationTripped
Trip ifForward earnings estimates decline by more than 20% from current levels, pushing the forward P/E above 8x on lower estimates rather than price appreciation.
- P2Earnings Miss Pattern Downtrend
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below negative 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, indicating deterioration is accelerating.
- P3Elevated Put Call Ratio Hedging
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 12.0, increasing more than 41% above the already elevated current level of 8.50.
- P4Strong Piotroski Quality Backbone
Trip ifPrice falls below $9.43 stop-loss, declining more than 7% from the current $10.14.