Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
- ▸Attractively valued
WWW · Why this verdict
Why Wolverine World Wide (WWW) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Wolverine World Wide is a footwear brand in technical recovery with four consecutive earnings beats averaging 17.3% above estimates, attractive valuation at 10.1x forward earnings, and a 22% analyst upside projection — but the risk score has fallen below the minimum floor of 3.0, the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with a death cross, and a put/call ratio of 2.92 signals heavy downside hedging.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The risk score of 2.8 has fallen below the minimum acceptable floor of 3.0, driven by elevated put/call ratio of 2.92, the stock trading above the max pain price of $15 (current $17.77), and high implied volatility of 76% — creating a structurally dangerous entry environment. Risk breakdown | Risk score recovers above 3.5 within 6 months as the put/call ratio falls below 1.5 and implied volatility normalizes below 50%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios in consumer cyclical turnaround names often precede sharp upside moves when the fundamental improvement finally triggers a squeeze against the bearish positioning. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings of 10.1x and a PEG ratio of 0.16 indicate Wolverine World Wide is attractively priced relative to its earnings growth trajectory, with analysts projecting approximately 22% upside from current levels. Valuation breakdown | Price rises above $21.50, capturing at least 50% of the analyst projected upside, within 12 months as the brand turnaround gains traction. | →Stable |
| CounterConsumer discretionary footwear brands at low multiples frequently reflect secular market share loss to competitors with stronger brand equity, making the low valuation a value trap rather than an opportunity. | ||
Wolverine has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last quarters with an average surprise of 17.3%, including a 44.4% beat — suggesting the business is executing well above consensus expectations as the brand restructuring produces results. Earnings | The beat streak continues for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining above 8%. | →Stable |
| CounterConsumer discretionary earnings beats during a structural turnaround often reflect cost-cutting and inventory normalization rather than genuine revenue recovery, which limits the sustainability of the beat streak. | ||
A confirmed death cross with the 200-day moving average declining at -6.4% per month represents a steep and accelerating downtrend — the steepest among this batch — suggesting aggressive institutional selling that will be difficult to reverse quickly. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope flattens to below -2% per month within 6 months as selling pressure exhausts and the stock begins to base. | →Stable |
| CounterThe MACD is improving and volume accumulation is rising, which are early signs of a technical reversal that can precede a death cross recovery by several weeks. | ||
The risk score of 2.8 has fallen below the minimum acceptable floor of 3.0, driven by elevated put/call ratio of 2.92, the stock trading above the max pain price of $15 (current $17.77), and high implied volatility of 76% — creating a structurally dangerous entry environment.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Risk score recovers above 3.5 within 6 months as the put/call ratio falls below 1.5 and implied volatility normalizes below 50%.
CounterElevated put/call ratios in consumer cyclical turnaround names often precede sharp upside moves when the fundamental improvement finally triggers a squeeze against the bearish positioning.
A forward price-to-earnings of 10.1x and a PEG ratio of 0.16 indicate Wolverine World Wide is attractively priced relative to its earnings growth trajectory, with analysts projecting approximately 22% upside from current levels.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above $21.50, capturing at least 50% of the analyst projected upside, within 12 months as the brand turnaround gains traction.
CounterConsumer discretionary footwear brands at low multiples frequently reflect secular market share loss to competitors with stronger brand equity, making the low valuation a value trap rather than an opportunity.
Wolverine has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last quarters with an average surprise of 17.3%, including a 44.4% beat — suggesting the business is executing well above consensus expectations as the brand restructuring produces results.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak continues for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining above 8%.
CounterConsumer discretionary earnings beats during a structural turnaround often reflect cost-cutting and inventory normalization rather than genuine revenue recovery, which limits the sustainability of the beat streak.
A confirmed death cross with the 200-day moving average declining at -6.4% per month represents a steep and accelerating downtrend — the steepest among this batch — suggesting aggressive institutional selling that will be difficult to reverse quickly.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope flattens to below -2% per month within 6 months as selling pressure exhausts and the stock begins to base.
CounterThe MACD is improving and volume accumulation is rising, which are early signs of a technical reversal that can precede a death cross recovery by several weeks.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.7 |
| ROA | 4.1 |
| Gross margin | 5.5 |
| Op margin | 3.0 |
| Net margin | 2.7 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.7 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 29%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $87,340 (0.006% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.5 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.6 |
| support resistance | 1.4 |
| 52w position | 1.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.5 |
| days to cover | 4.2 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| beta | 4.1 |
| debt equity | 3.4 |
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 8 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.5>=5.0 recovering
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:8d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.15
Upside
+2.0%
Downside
13.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 70, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 8d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -42% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.15 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Growth at 7.6, and Catalyst at 7.4; the weakest are Technical at 1.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8, and Peer rank at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.15 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Risk Below Minimum Floor
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 4.0, exceeding the current elevated 2.92 by more than 1 point and indicating further escalation of downside hedging.
- P2Attractive Valuation Analyst Upside
Trip ifPrice drops below $16.53, reaching the stop-loss level and falling more than 7% below the current $17.77.
- P3Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters.
- P4Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope steepens below -9% per month, declining more than 2.6 percentage points beyond the current already steep -6.4%.