Value
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.39
- ▸Attractively valued
WTW · Why this verdict
Why Willis Towers Watson Public Lim (WTW) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Willis Towers Watson has beaten earnings in each of the last four quarters, and analyst earnings estimates are trending upward, creating a dual tailwind of consistent execution above consensus and improving forward expectations. Earnings | The beat streak extends to at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and the positive estimate revision trend continues for at least 2 more quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFour-quarter beat streaks at modest levels (average 3.8% surprise) can reflect management conservatism on guidance rather than fundamental business acceleration. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings of 11.6x and a PEG ratio of 0.35, Willis Towers Watson trades well below fair value implied by its earnings growth rate, with analysts projecting approximately 29% upside to a consensus target that implies a price-to-earnings re-rating. Sentiment breakdown | Price rises above $298 within 12 months, capturing at least 15% of the 29% analyst upside, as the valuation discount to peers narrows. | →Stable |
| CounterInsurance broker stocks at 11.6x forward earnings may be cheap for structural reasons including integration execution risk, client retention uncertainty, or margin pressure from technology-driven competition. | ||
Free cash flow conversion of 123% relative to net income means the company generates more cash than it reports as earnings — a strong quality indicator reflecting low capital intensity and excellent working capital management. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income over the next 12 months, confirming the structural cash generation quality. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow above net income can reflect deferred tax benefits, client deposit float, or working capital timing that does not represent permanently higher cash generation. | ||
Despite a confirmed death cross pattern and price below the 200-day moving average with a declining slope of -3.1% per month, the MACD is improving and the RSI has recovered to 51, suggesting the technical downtrend may be bottoming. Gates warning | Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 6 months as the technical recovery progresses and buying momentum builds. | →Stable |
| CounterDeath crosses with a confirmed -3.1% per month moving average slope signal sustained institutional selling; technical recovery from confirmed downtrends frequently requires 6-12 months of base-building before sustainable uptrends begin. | ||
Willis Towers Watson has beaten earnings in each of the last four quarters, and analyst earnings estimates are trending upward, creating a dual tailwind of consistent execution above consensus and improving forward expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and the positive estimate revision trend continues for at least 2 more quarters.
CounterFour-quarter beat streaks at modest levels (average 3.8% surprise) can reflect management conservatism on guidance rather than fundamental business acceleration.
At a forward price-to-earnings of 11.6x and a PEG ratio of 0.35, Willis Towers Watson trades well below fair value implied by its earnings growth rate, with analysts projecting approximately 29% upside to a consensus target that implies a price-to-earnings re-rating.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above $298 within 12 months, capturing at least 15% of the 29% analyst upside, as the valuation discount to peers narrows.
CounterInsurance broker stocks at 11.6x forward earnings may be cheap for structural reasons including integration execution risk, client retention uncertainty, or margin pressure from technology-driven competition.
Free cash flow conversion of 123% relative to net income means the company generates more cash than it reports as earnings — a strong quality indicator reflecting low capital intensity and excellent working capital management.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income over the next 12 months, confirming the structural cash generation quality.
CounterFree cash flow above net income can reflect deferred tax benefits, client deposit float, or working capital timing that does not represent permanently higher cash generation.
Despite a confirmed death cross pattern and price below the 200-day moving average with a declining slope of -3.1% per month, the MACD is improving and the RSI has recovered to 51, suggesting the technical downtrend may be bottoming.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 6 months as the technical recovery progresses and buying momentum builds.
CounterDeath crosses with a confirmed -3.1% per month moving average slope signal sustained institutional selling; technical recovery from confirmed downtrends frequently requires 6-12 months of base-building before sustainable uptrends begin.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Willis Towers Watson is an attractively valued insurance broker trading at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.6x with a PEG ratio of 0.35, four consecutive earnings beats, 29% analyst upside potential, and free cash flow conversion of 123% of net income — a combination that positions it as a value-growth hybrid with recovery momentum developing.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.9 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 4.5 |
| Op margin | 8.2 |
| Net margin | 8.4 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 9.1 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 123% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 8.6 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 4.8 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 70)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $1,009,500 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.1 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 4.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 6.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 6.1 |
| put call | 7.4 |
| implied vol | 5.6 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 5.9 |
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.4 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 134.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.2>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.37
Upside
+4.8%
Downside
12.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 27d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5. Top dim: Sentiment at 7.6; weakest: Technical at 2.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.6, Value at 7.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 2.2, Peer rank at 4.6, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.37 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation High Analyst Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below $230.60, reaching the stop-loss level and declining more than 10% below the current $257.85, eliminating the near-term recovery thesis.
- P2Four Quarter Beat With Rising Estimates
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters.
- P3Superior Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 80% of net income, declining more than 43 percentage points from the current 123%.
- P4Death Cross Recovery Setup
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope declines below -5% per month, steepening more than 2 percentage points below the current -3.1% and indicating accelerating institutional selling.