Value
7.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 6.9 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.04
- ▸Attractively valued
WSC · Why this verdict
Why WillScot Holdings (WSC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
WillScot Holdings is a modular space rental business carrying significant quality and risk headwinds: quality scores sit below minimum thresholds, short interest stands at 18%, and the put/call ratio has reached 1.81, suggesting the market is skewed bearish relative to the current price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business quality score of 3.9 falls below the minimum acceptable floor of 4.0, with no competitive moat identified and only moderate free cash flow margins of 14%. Quality breakdown | Quality score rises above 4.5 and free cash flow margin expands beyond 18% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterModular space rental is a capital-light repeat-revenue model and temporary quality weakness may reflect transient cost pressures rather than structural deterioration. | ||
Short interest of 18% signals substantial bearish conviction among sophisticated investors, creating persistent selling pressure and elevated squeeze risk. Key risks | Short interest declines below 10% as fundamental improvement or short covering reduces the bearish overhang. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest can be a contrarian indicator; a positive earnings surprise could trigger a short squeeze and rapid price appreciation. | ||
The last four quarters show two beats and two misses with an average surprise of -0.6%, indicating the company is not reliably exceeding analyst expectations. Earnings | Average quarterly earnings surprise rises above 5% over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter beat by 27.6%, suggesting the miss pattern may be reverting as cost actions take hold. | ||
With only 0.7% upside to the resistance target versus 7.0% downside to the stop level, the reward-to-risk ratio of 0.1 offers unfavorable entry conditions at the current price of $28.30. Targets | Price consolidates and pulls back to a level where upside to resistance exceeds 10%, restoring a favorable reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterStrong momentum indicators — golden cross, RSI 69, bullish MACD, and rising OBV — may push the stock through resistance and expand the upside target. | ||
The business quality score of 3.9 falls below the minimum acceptable floor of 4.0, with no competitive moat identified and only moderate free cash flow margins of 14%.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.5 and free cash flow margin expands beyond 18% over the next 12 months.
CounterModular space rental is a capital-light repeat-revenue model and temporary quality weakness may reflect transient cost pressures rather than structural deterioration.
Short interest of 18% signals substantial bearish conviction among sophisticated investors, creating persistent selling pressure and elevated squeeze risk.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest declines below 10% as fundamental improvement or short covering reduces the bearish overhang.
CounterHigh short interest can be a contrarian indicator; a positive earnings surprise could trigger a short squeeze and rapid price appreciation.
The last four quarters show two beats and two misses with an average surprise of -0.6%, indicating the company is not reliably exceeding analyst expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Average quarterly earnings surprise rises above 5% over the next four reported quarters.
CounterThe most recent quarter beat by 27.6%, suggesting the miss pattern may be reverting as cost actions take hold.
With only 0.7% upside to the resistance target versus 7.0% downside to the stop level, the reward-to-risk ratio of 0.1 offers unfavorable entry conditions at the current price of $28.30.
Tripped↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- Price consolidates and pulls back to a level where upside to resistance exceeds 10%, restoring a favorable reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5.
CounterStrong momentum indicators — golden cross, RSI 69, bullish MACD, and rising OBV — may push the stock through resistance and expand the upside target.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 6.5 |
| Op margin | 8.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.2 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 11%, FCF yield 7.0%)
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.5 |
| EPS growth | 2.0 |
Momentum
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 11, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 51%
Insider
4.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.4 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.2 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 3.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.8 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 2.2 |
| put call | 2.7 |
| implied vol | 1.3 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 0.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.60
- ▸High IV: 72%
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.7 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.4% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:67d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.77
Upside
+31.0%
Downside
8.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.33>1.3, MCap $3.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 1.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.77 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Sentiment at 7.3, and Technical at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 1.9, Peer rank at 2.2, and Growth at 2.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.77 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Threshold
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.5 for 2 consecutive quarters, more than 12% below the minimum threshold of 4.0.
- P2High Short Interest Pressure
Trip ifShort interest rises above 22%, exceeding the current 18% level by more than 4 percentage points.
- P3Earnings Inconsistency
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise falls below -5% in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters.
- P4Negative Return AsymmetryTripped
Trip ifPrice drops below $26.32, reaching the stop-loss level and signaling downside greater than 7% from the current $28.30.