Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 6.2 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.21
- ▸Attractively valued
WIT · Why this verdict
Why Wipro (WIT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With a growth score of 3.1 out of 10 driven by modest earnings growth of 1.7% and limited revenue expansion, Wipro is in a low-growth phase that does not justify premium positioning relative to higher-growth IT services peers. Bear case | Revenue growth accelerates above 10% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive reported quarters, as AI-related demand translates into measurable contract wins. | →Stable |
| CounterIT services companies are inflecting toward AI-enabled services that carry higher margins; even modest revenue growth could produce outsized earnings growth if the services mix shifts toward higher-value offerings. | ||
At $2.30, Wipro trades 21% above analyst consensus price targets, creating an asymmetry ratio of -1.4 — for every dollar of potential upside based on analyst expectations, the stock offers 1.4 dollars of downside risk, making the risk/reward unfavorable at current levels. Bear case | Analyst price targets are raised above $2.50 within 6 months following improved earnings results, or the stock pulls back below $2.00 to re-align with existing targets. | →Stable |
| CounterIT services stocks often trade above consensus targets when the market anticipates an AI-driven demand recovery that analysts have not yet built into models; the premium to targets may reflect rational forward-looking optimism. | ||
Wipro's earnings have been perfectly flat across all 4 recent quarters, with actual results matching estimates to the penny at $0.04 per quarter and an average surprise of -0.7% — indicating the business is neither growing nor deteriorating but is in a holding pattern that offers no earnings momentum catalyst. Earnings | Earnings per quarter grows above $0.05 for at least 2 consecutive reported quarters, confirming a resumption of earnings growth above the current flat trajectory. | →Stable |
| CounterPerfectly consistent earnings delivery without misses demonstrates predictability and execution discipline; in a challenging IT spending environment, maintaining a flat earnings run-rate may represent stabilization before an eventual inflection. | ||
Wipro's price is below its 200-day moving average with a slope of -3.8% per 30 days, confirming an established medium-term downtrend — despite technical green flags in on-balance volume and MACD, the primary trend remains bearish. Momentum breakdown | Price rises above the 200-day moving average and stays above for at least 20 consecutive trading days, reversing the confirmed downtrend. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume alongside a downtrending price is a bullish divergence that historically precedes a reversal; the MACD improving while below the moving average may be a leading indicator of a trend change. | ||
With a growth score of 3.1 out of 10 driven by modest earnings growth of 1.7% and limited revenue expansion, Wipro is in a low-growth phase that does not justify premium positioning relative to higher-growth IT services peers.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth accelerates above 10% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive reported quarters, as AI-related demand translates into measurable contract wins.
CounterIT services companies are inflecting toward AI-enabled services that carry higher margins; even modest revenue growth could produce outsized earnings growth if the services mix shifts toward higher-value offerings.
At $2.30, Wipro trades 21% above analyst consensus price targets, creating an asymmetry ratio of -1.4 — for every dollar of potential upside based on analyst expectations, the stock offers 1.4 dollars of downside risk, making the risk/reward unfavorable at current levels.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are raised above $2.50 within 6 months following improved earnings results, or the stock pulls back below $2.00 to re-align with existing targets.
CounterIT services stocks often trade above consensus targets when the market anticipates an AI-driven demand recovery that analysts have not yet built into models; the premium to targets may reflect rational forward-looking optimism.
Wipro's earnings have been perfectly flat across all 4 recent quarters, with actual results matching estimates to the penny at $0.04 per quarter and an average surprise of -0.7% — indicating the business is neither growing nor deteriorating but is in a holding pattern that offers no earnings momentum catalyst.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per quarter grows above $0.05 for at least 2 consecutive reported quarters, confirming a resumption of earnings growth above the current flat trajectory.
CounterPerfectly consistent earnings delivery without misses demonstrates predictability and execution discipline; in a challenging IT spending environment, maintaining a flat earnings run-rate may represent stabilization before an eventual inflection.
Wipro's price is below its 200-day moving average with a slope of -3.8% per 30 days, confirming an established medium-term downtrend — despite technical green flags in on-balance volume and MACD, the primary trend remains bearish.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above the 200-day moving average and stays above for at least 20 consecutive trading days, reversing the confirmed downtrend.
CounterRising on-balance volume alongside a downtrending price is a bullish divergence that historically precedes a reversal; the MACD improving while below the moving average may be a leading indicator of a trend change.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Wipro Limited is an IT services provider trading 21% above analyst consensus targets, in a confirmed downtrend below its 200-day moving average, with perfectly flat earnings surprises across all 4 recent quarters — a combination of signals that offers no compelling entry thesis at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.1 |
| ROA | 4.6 |
| Gross margin | 1.8 |
| Op margin | 6.9 |
| Net margin | 7.1 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.4 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 1.7 |
Momentum
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $16,167,996 (0.086% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.4 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 5.2 |
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 2.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 4.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
- ▸High IV: 83%
- ▸Above max pain $0
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
- ▸Dividend: 1015.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.60
Upside
-9.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.60 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.4, Technical at 7.3, and Quality at 5.9; the weakest are Momentum at 1.7, Growth at 3.1, and Insider at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.60 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Targets
Trip ifPrice rises above $2.70, more than 17% above the current $2.30, while analyst targets remain below $2.50.
- P2Flat Earnings No Growth Signal
Trip ifQuarterly earnings per share falls below $0.03, more than 25% below the current $0.04 run-rate, for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Below 200 Ma
Trip ifPrice drops below $2.00, more than 13% below the current $2.30, with the 200-day moving average slope declining for more than 60 consecutive trading days.
- P4Weak Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth remains below 3% year-over-year for at least 3 consecutive reported quarters.