Value
8.1/10data confidence 20%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
- ▸Attractively valued
WILC · Why this verdict
Why G. Willi-Food International, L (WILC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
WILC combines positive momentum and peer-leading margins and valuation with real execution risk — two of the last four quarters missed estimates, leverage sits at 1.3x, and the business lacks a defined competitive moat.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
WILC shows positive price momentum and is outperforming its peers, supported by rising on-balance volume and a position above the 200-day moving average. Bull case | Momentum score should hold above 6.0 and the price should stay above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months if the outperformance is durable. | — |
| CounterMomentum-driven outperformance can reverse quickly for a thinly-traded small cap once the volume surge fades. | ||
The engine finds no competitive moat for WILC, leaving margins exposed to competitive pressure despite otherwise adequate quality metrics. Quality breakdown | Quality score should hold or improve from the current 4.4 if the lack of a moat does not translate into margin erosion. | — |
| CounterA commodity food distributor can still compound value through scale and distribution relationships even without a classic economic moat. | ||
WILC trades at an attractive P/E versus peers while delivering best-in-class margins, suggesting the market may be underpricing its relative quality. Peer-rank breakdown | The value peer-rank should stay above 7.0 while margin peer-standing remains best-in-class over the next 12 months. | — |
| CounterA cheap peer-relative P/E can reflect justified skepticism about growth and moat rather than a genuine mispricing. | ||
WILC has missed consensus EPS estimates in 2 of its last 4 reported quarters, signaling inconsistent execution against analyst expectations. Earnings | The company should beat or meet estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters if execution has stabilized. | — |
| CounterSmall-cap earnings estimates are often thinly covered and noisy, so a 2-of-4 miss rate may not reflect a real deterioration in execution. | ||
WILC carries a leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.3x, which the engine treats as a drag on the overall score. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should decline from 1.3x over the next 12 months if the leverage concern is set to ease. | — |
| CounterA D/E of 1.3x is not unusually high for a food distributor with steady cash flows, so the penalty may overstate the actual risk. | ||
WILC shows positive price momentum and is outperforming its peers, supported by rising on-balance volume and a position above the 200-day moving average.
—Bull case
- Expectation
- Momentum score should hold above 6.0 and the price should stay above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months if the outperformance is durable.
CounterMomentum-driven outperformance can reverse quickly for a thinly-traded small cap once the volume surge fades.
The engine finds no competitive moat for WILC, leaving margins exposed to competitive pressure despite otherwise adequate quality metrics.
—Quality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should hold or improve from the current 4.4 if the lack of a moat does not translate into margin erosion.
CounterA commodity food distributor can still compound value through scale and distribution relationships even without a classic economic moat.
WILC trades at an attractive P/E versus peers while delivering best-in-class margins, suggesting the market may be underpricing its relative quality.
—Peer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- The value peer-rank should stay above 7.0 while margin peer-standing remains best-in-class over the next 12 months.
CounterA cheap peer-relative P/E can reflect justified skepticism about growth and moat rather than a genuine mispricing.
WILC has missed consensus EPS estimates in 2 of its last 4 reported quarters, signaling inconsistent execution against analyst expectations.
—Earnings
- Expectation
- The company should beat or meet estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters if execution has stabilized.
CounterSmall-cap earnings estimates are often thinly covered and noisy, so a 2-of-4 miss rate may not reflect a real deterioration in execution.
WILC carries a leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.3x, which the engine treats as a drag on the overall score.
—Bear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should decline from 1.3x over the next 12 months if the leverage concern is set to ease.
CounterA D/E of 1.3x is not unusually high for a food distributor with steady cash flows, so the penalty may overstate the actual risk.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.1 |
| ROA | 4.5 |
| Gross margin | 2.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 6.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 0.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.7 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.0 |
| support resistance | 6.7 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| surprise avg | 3.2 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 4.9% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $400M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
10.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Value at 8.1 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3, and Peer rank at 6.8; the weakest are Growth at 1.2, Catalyst at 3.6, and Quality at 4.2. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Positive Momentum Peer Outperformance
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5 from the current 7.9, erasing the outperformance signal.
- P2Absent Competitive Moat Quality Gap
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.0 from the current 4.4, confirming margin erosion without a moat to defend pricing.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifThe miss streak rises to 3 consecutive quarters, up from the current 2 of the last 4 quarters.
- P4Elevated Leverage Valuation Penalty
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 0.8x from the current 1.3x, showing the leverage risk has been resolved.
- P5Peer Relative Value Margin Edge
Trip ifValue peer-rank score falls below 4.0 from the current 8.3, erasing the relative valuation advantage.