Value
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.0 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 5.3 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.44
WCC · Why this verdict
Why WESCO International (WCC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
WESCO International is an industry growth leader with an 8.0 growth score and beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but quality remains just below the investable floor at 3.7, free cash flow is only 26% of net income, and the stock trades above analyst price targets at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
WESCO ranks as the top growth performer in the industrial distribution industry peer group, with a peer growth rank score indicating leadership even as earnings growth is expected to be strong; this growth leadership commands attention in a distribution sector that benefits from industrial cycle upswings. Peer-rank breakdown | WESCO maintains its top-quartile position in industry revenue growth for at least 2 more quarters and EPS growth score remains above 7.0. | ↑Improving |
| CounterIndustrial distributors often show impressive growth during capex cycles that can reverse sharply; WESCO's beta of 1.54 indicates it is cyclically sensitive and growth leadership may be a lagging indicator of peak cycle conditions. | ||
WESCO's quality score of 3.7 falls just below the 4.0 investable threshold, and free cash flow represents only 26% of net income — flagged as a red flag — meaning the company's reported earnings significantly overstate the cash it actually generates. Quality breakdown | Quality score rises above 4.0 and free cash flow improves to at least 50% of net income within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDistribution businesses often carry high working capital requirements that temporarily suppress FCF relative to net income; the strong Piotroski F-Score of 6.7 and current ratio of 7.4 suggest the balance sheet is not under stress. | ||
WESCO has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with a most recent quarter delivering an 18.9% positive surprise, indicating strong operational execution even as the stock trades above analyst price targets. Earnings | Beat streak continues with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters delivering positive EPS surprises above 2%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe single miss was a -12.6% surprise just two quarters ago, suggesting WESCO can swing from beats to significant misses, which limits confidence in the beat streak as a reliable predictor. | ||
With an asymmetry ratio of -0.79 and the stock trading above its analyst price target of $369.80, there is no consensus upside to the current price of $347.79, meaning buyers at current prices must rely on target upgrades rather than existing analyst consensus. Targets | Analyst price targets are revised upward to at least $380 within 12 months as earnings momentum justifies higher targets. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLight analyst coverage noted in the data means that the existing targets may significantly lag the actual fundamental case; coverage initiations could immediately reveal a larger analyst consensus upside. | ||
WESCO ranks as the top growth performer in the industrial distribution industry peer group, with a peer growth rank score indicating leadership even as earnings growth is expected to be strong; this growth leadership commands attention in a distribution sector that benefits from industrial cycle upswings.
↑ImprovingPeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- WESCO maintains its top-quartile position in industry revenue growth for at least 2 more quarters and EPS growth score remains above 7.0.
CounterIndustrial distributors often show impressive growth during capex cycles that can reverse sharply; WESCO's beta of 1.54 indicates it is cyclically sensitive and growth leadership may be a lagging indicator of peak cycle conditions.
WESCO's quality score of 3.7 falls just below the 4.0 investable threshold, and free cash flow represents only 26% of net income — flagged as a red flag — meaning the company's reported earnings significantly overstate the cash it actually generates.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0 and free cash flow improves to at least 50% of net income within 12 months.
CounterDistribution businesses often carry high working capital requirements that temporarily suppress FCF relative to net income; the strong Piotroski F-Score of 6.7 and current ratio of 7.4 suggest the balance sheet is not under stress.
WESCO has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with a most recent quarter delivering an 18.9% positive surprise, indicating strong operational execution even as the stock trades above analyst price targets.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat streak continues with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters delivering positive EPS surprises above 2%.
CounterThe single miss was a -12.6% surprise just two quarters ago, suggesting WESCO can swing from beats to significant misses, which limits confidence in the beat streak as a reliable predictor.
With an asymmetry ratio of -0.79 and the stock trading above its analyst price target of $369.80, there is no consensus upside to the current price of $347.79, meaning buyers at current prices must rely on target upgrades rather than existing analyst consensus.
↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward to at least $380 within 12 months as earnings momentum justifies higher targets.
CounterLight analyst coverage noted in the data means that the existing targets may significantly lag the actual fundamental case; coverage initiations could immediately reveal a larger analyst consensus upside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.1 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.3 |
| Op margin | 2.6 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 7.0 |
| FCF quality | 3.9 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 49% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
8.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.3 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 2.1 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,346,527 (0.008% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions reducing
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.2 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 7.9 |
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.9 |
| support resistance | 8.4 |
| 52w position | 6.2 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.8 |
| implied vol | 4.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.8 |
| debt equity | 4.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $130
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.1 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.6% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:99d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.26
Upside
+15.2%
Downside
12.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.55>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5, ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.26 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.3, Technical at 7.9, and Sentiment at 7.6; the weakest are Momentum at 1.9, Insider at 3.4, and Quality at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Growth Leader Position
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% year-over-year in 2 or more of the next 4 quarters, indicating the growth leadership position is fading.
- P2Quality Below Floor Fcf Concern
Trip ifFree cash flow remains below 30% of net income for 2 or more consecutive annual periods with no improvement.
- P3Earnings Track Record 3 Of 4 Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -10% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Price Above Analyst Targets
Trip ifPrice rises above $400, more than 15% above the current $347.79, without analyst targets being revised above $420.