Value
6.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 4.3 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.8x
- ▸PEG: 2.22
WASH · Why this verdict
Why Washington Trust Bancorp (WASH) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Washington Trust Bancorp shows a golden-cross breakout riding an earnings catalyst and notable insider buying, but the engine's asymmetry gate has failed after the analyst target was reached, revenue is declining, and a yield trap warning tempers the dividend-driven bull case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Washington Trust Bancorp is classified BREAKOUT - a golden cross with price above all moving averages, RSI 58, bullish MACD - and the engine flags a CATALYST edge type with earnings 16 days out riding a 3-of-4 beat streak. Chart pattern detection | Price should hold the breakout structure and the beat streak should extend to a 4th consecutive quarter at the July 20, 2026 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe asymmetry gate has failed at -1.62 with the analyst target already reached, meaning the engine's own risk/reward math argues against chasing the breakout at current levels. | ||
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -1.62, with the analyst target already reached (-19.9% modeled upside) against 12.3% downside, and the stock trading just 4.1% below its 52-week high. Reward-to-risk math | Asymmetry ratio should improve toward positive territory (above 0) as either price corrects or analyst targets rise over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA regional bank breakout with strong insider buying can continue re-rating higher even after the nominal analyst target is reached, especially if the July earnings beat further raises targets. | ||
Revenue is declining at -7%, per the growth-dimension notes, named directly as 'Weak growth' in the bear case and the primary driver of a below-average growth peer rank of 0.40. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive or at least stabilize over the next 12 months if the thesis reverses. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterRegional bank revenue is highly sensitive to net interest margin and deposit costs; a -7% print may reflect a temporary rate-cycle headwind rather than structural business deterioration. | ||
Insiders bought $1,119,511 (0.165% of market cap) over the past 90 days across 4 buy transactions against just 1 sell, and the top-level insider signal reads BULLISH. Insider transaction read | Insider buying should continue or at least not reverse into net selling over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterInsider buying at a regional bank near a 52-week high can reflect routine equity compensation-related purchases rather than a strong conviction signal about undervaluation. | ||
The engine flags a yield trap warning (high yield but unsafe) even as it notes strong recent earnings (3 beats, 1 miss over the last 4 quarters). Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety metrics should improve and the yield trap warning should clear over the next 12 months if earnings strength persists. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA yield trap warning on a regional bank can persist for extended periods without an actual dividend cut, especially if earnings keep beating estimates as they have in 3 of the last 4 quarters. | ||
Washington Trust Bancorp is classified BREAKOUT - a golden cross with price above all moving averages, RSI 58, bullish MACD - and the engine flags a CATALYST edge type with earnings 16 days out riding a 3-of-4 beat streak.
↑ImprovingChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should hold the breakout structure and the beat streak should extend to a 4th consecutive quarter at the July 20, 2026 report.
CounterThe asymmetry gate has failed at -1.62 with the analyst target already reached, meaning the engine's own risk/reward math argues against chasing the breakout at current levels.
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -1.62, with the analyst target already reached (-19.9% modeled upside) against 12.3% downside, and the stock trading just 4.1% below its 52-week high.
↑ImprovingReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- Asymmetry ratio should improve toward positive territory (above 0) as either price corrects or analyst targets rise over the next 12 months.
CounterA regional bank breakout with strong insider buying can continue re-rating higher even after the nominal analyst target is reached, especially if the July earnings beat further raises targets.
Revenue is declining at -7%, per the growth-dimension notes, named directly as 'Weak growth' in the bear case and the primary driver of a below-average growth peer rank of 0.40.
Tripped↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive or at least stabilize over the next 12 months if the thesis reverses.
CounterRegional bank revenue is highly sensitive to net interest margin and deposit costs; a -7% print may reflect a temporary rate-cycle headwind rather than structural business deterioration.
Insiders bought $1,119,511 (0.165% of market cap) over the past 90 days across 4 buy transactions against just 1 sell, and the top-level insider signal reads BULLISH.
↓DeterioratingInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Insider buying should continue or at least not reverse into net selling over the next 12 months.
CounterInsider buying at a regional bank near a 52-week high can reflect routine equity compensation-related purchases rather than a strong conviction signal about undervaluation.
The engine flags a yield trap warning (high yield but unsafe) even as it notes strong recent earnings (3 beats, 1 miss over the last 4 quarters).
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety metrics should improve and the yield trap warning should clear over the next 12 months if earnings strength persists.
CounterA yield trap warning on a regional bank can persist for extended periods without an actual dividend cut, especially if earnings keep beating estimates as they have in 3 of the last 4 quarters.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 6.4 |
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.1 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 4.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 8.2 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $72,153 (0.010% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 3.0 |
| growth rank | 3.5 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 4.3 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.8 |
| beta | 8.7 |
| news risk | 3.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.8 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:87d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.40
Upside
-18.7%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 6.6; weakest: Peer rank at 4.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.2, and Growth at 5.7; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.4, Quality at 5.2, and Technical at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.40 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Golden Cross Breakout Into Earnings Catalyst
Trip ifPrice closes below the 50-day moving average, or the company misses estimates at the July 20, 2026 report.
- P2Negative Asymmetry After Target Reached
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 0 from the current -1.62, or modeled upside exceeds 5%.
- P3Declining Revenue Weak GrowthTripped
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below -12% YoY, worse than the current -7%.
- P4Notable Insider Buying Signal
Trip ifInsiders begin net selling exceeding $500,000 over a rolling 90-day window, reversing the current $1,119,511 net buy.
- P5Yield Trap Warning Despite Strong Earnings
Trip ifThe company cuts its dividend, or the dividend safety component score falls below 2.0 from the current 3.5.