Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.9 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.08
VSXY · Why this verdict
Why Victorias Secret & (VSXY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Victoria's Secret has beaten EPS estimates four quarters in a row and earns a 47% return on equity, but the price is 15.1% above the $82.07 analyst target and short interest is 17%.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Return on equity is an excellent 47% with a Piotroski F-Score of 7 of 9, showing efficient use of capital despite modest margins. Quality breakdown | Return on equity stays above 30% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA high ROE on a small equity base reflects leverage, and operating margin is only around 3 out of 10 in the quality components. | ||
EPS beat estimates in all 4 of the last quarters with an average surprise of 44.1%, including $0.95 against $0.77 in the latest quarter. Last 4 quarters | EPS continues to beat estimates over the next 4 quarters, including the report due in 32 days. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRetail beats against conservative guidance can reverse quickly if consumer demand weakens, and the stock may already price in the streak. | ||
At $96.62 the stock trades above the $82.07 analyst target (upside -15.1%), leaving a negative reward-to-risk ratio of -1.0 against 15% downside. Analyst target | Analyst targets are raised toward the current price as beats continue. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock is above all moving averages after a golden cross, and analysts have been revising targets up after each beat. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 17.1x with a PEG of 0.08, a valuation that supports the price only if earnings growth continues. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 20x while earnings growth continues over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA low PEG on one strong year of earnings growth can flatter valuation if apparel demand slows. | ||
Short interest is 17% of float, a sign that a meaningful group of investors is betting against the turnaround. Key risks | Short interest declines as beats continue over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest after a strong beat streak can fuel a short squeeze that pushes the price higher still. | ||
Return on equity is an excellent 47% with a Piotroski F-Score of 7 of 9, showing efficient use of capital despite modest margins.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity stays above 30% over the next 12 months.
CounterA high ROE on a small equity base reflects leverage, and operating margin is only around 3 out of 10 in the quality components.
EPS beat estimates in all 4 of the last quarters with an average surprise of 44.1%, including $0.95 against $0.77 in the latest quarter.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS continues to beat estimates over the next 4 quarters, including the report due in 32 days.
CounterRetail beats against conservative guidance can reverse quickly if consumer demand weakens, and the stock may already price in the streak.
At $96.62 the stock trades above the $82.07 analyst target (upside -15.1%), leaving a negative reward-to-risk ratio of -1.0 against 15% downside.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised toward the current price as beats continue.
CounterThe stock is above all moving averages after a golden cross, and analysts have been revising targets up after each beat.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 17.1x with a PEG of 0.08, a valuation that supports the price only if earnings growth continues.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 20x while earnings growth continues over 12 months.
CounterA low PEG on one strong year of earnings growth can flatter valuation if apparel demand slows.
Short interest is 17% of float, a sign that a meaningful group of investors is betting against the turnaround.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest declines as beats continue over the next 12 months.
CounterHigh short interest after a strong beat streak can fuel a short squeeze that pushes the price higher still.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.3 |
| Gross margin | 3.6 |
| Op margin | 3.1 |
| Net margin | 2.7 |
| Current ratio | 5.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.5 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 47%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 4.2 |
Insider
5.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.2 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $647,457 (0.008% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.0 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 5.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.6 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.5 |
| days to cover | 4.5 |
| volatility | 0.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 2.9 |
| debt equity | 2.2 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 17%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.00
- ▸High IV: 64%
- ▸Above max pain $45
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:RISK_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.17
Upside
-17.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 29d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.13>1.3
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.2=NEGATIVE outcome against Catalyst at 7.0 and asymmetric R:R of -1.17.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.0, Momentum at 6.8, and Value at 6.6; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.6, Peer rank at 3.8, and Technical at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.17 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Excellent Return On Equity
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 30% from the current 47%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $105 from the current $82.07.
- P4Moderate Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 22x from the current 17.1x.
- P5Elevated Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest falls below 8% from the current 17%.