Value
6.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
VSTS · Why this verdict
Why Vestis (VSTS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vestis has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and an insider recently bought about $1.0M of stock, but weak business quality, shrinking revenue and a price well above the $11.31 analyst target limit the upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality scores 2.6/10 with no competitive moat and thin margins, which drives the engine's exit recommendation despite attractive valuation. Quality breakdown | Operating margin improves over 12 months and lifts the quality score toward the 4.0 minimum. | →Stable |
| CounterUniform rental is a recurring-revenue business, and margin gains from cost cuts could lift quality scores faster than expected. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.18 against $0.10 in the latest quarter, with an average surprise of 44.7%. Last 4 quarters | EPS keeps meeting or beating estimates through the report due in 18 days and beyond. | →Stable |
| CounterThe beats are against very low estimates, and the company also missed in December 2025 and May 2025, so earnings remain volatile. | ||
Revenue is declining about 2%, with quarterly revenue of $661.7M for the period ended 2026-07-03 versus $673.8M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stabilizes and exceeds the $666.1M next-quarter estimate over the coming year. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue has held in a narrow $659M to $663M range over the last three quarters, so the decline may have flattened. | ||
At $14.83 the stock trades above the $11.31 analyst target (upside -23.7%), leaving a negative reward-to-risk ratio of -2.86 against 8.3% downside. Analyst target | Analyst targets are raised toward the current price if earnings beats continue. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is above its 200-day average after a golden cross, and light analyst coverage means targets may be stale. | ||
An insider bought about $1.05M of stock in the last 90 days with no sales, a bullish signal against an elevated put/call ratio of 3.50. Insider | Insiders remain net buyers and the put/call ratio falls over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA single purchase is a weak signal, and institutions are reducing their holdings. | ||
Business quality scores 2.6/10 with no competitive moat and thin margins, which drives the engine's exit recommendation despite attractive valuation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin improves over 12 months and lifts the quality score toward the 4.0 minimum.
CounterUniform rental is a recurring-revenue business, and margin gains from cost cuts could lift quality scores faster than expected.
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.18 against $0.10 in the latest quarter, with an average surprise of 44.7%.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS keeps meeting or beating estimates through the report due in 18 days and beyond.
CounterThe beats are against very low estimates, and the company also missed in December 2025 and May 2025, so earnings remain volatile.
Revenue is declining about 2%, with quarterly revenue of $661.7M for the period ended 2026-07-03 versus $673.8M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stabilizes and exceeds the $666.1M next-quarter estimate over the coming year.
CounterRevenue has held in a narrow $659M to $663M range over the last three quarters, so the decline may have flattened.
At $14.83 the stock trades above the $11.31 analyst target (upside -23.7%), leaving a negative reward-to-risk ratio of -2.86 against 8.3% downside.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised toward the current price if earnings beats continue.
CounterThe stock is above its 200-day average after a golden cross, and light analyst coverage means targets may be stale.
An insider bought about $1.05M of stock in the last 90 days with no sales, a bullish signal against an elevated put/call ratio of 3.50.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insiders remain net buyers and the put/call ratio falls over the next 12 months.
CounterA single purchase is a weak signal, and institutions are reducing their holdings.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 1.3 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.5 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
2.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| holder change | 1.8 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $1,045,383 (0.054% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions reducing
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 4.1 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.0 |
| days to cover | 4.3 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 3.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.67
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:16d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-3.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-3.00
Upside
-23.0%
Downside
7.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -3.0=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 6.7 and asymmetric R:R of -3.00.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.7, Catalyst at 6.4, and Technical at 5.1; the weakest are Growth at 2.0, Quality at 2.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -3.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Recovery
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Shrinking Revenue Base
Trip ifQuarterly revenue exceeds $700M for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Below Average Quality No Moat
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.6.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $16 from the current $11.31.
- P5Insider Buying Signal
Trip ifInsider net selling exceeds $500,000 over 90 days.