Value
4.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 29.8x
VSH · Why this verdict
Why Vishay Intertechnology (VSH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow is negative 3,853% relative to net income — an extreme earnings quality red flag — indicating the company is reporting accounting profits while consuming massive cash, which is unsustainable and typically precedes either a dividend cut or equity dilution. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income should recover to above 50% within 12 months, indicating the cash consumption has stabilized and the business is generating real returns for shareholders. | →Stable |
| CounterThe disconnect between accounting income and free cash flow in semiconductor companies often reflects temporary working capital investment cycles tied to inventory restocking; if that cycle normalizes, the cash flow picture could improve rapidly. | ||
The stock trades at $63.72 while the data bundle shows the analyst target has already been reached with a -54.6% negative asymmetry, implying the current price is significantly above where analysts believe fair value lies over the next 12 months. Bear case | The analyst consensus price target should be revised upward above $65 within 12 months to restore positive upside, otherwise the stock is overvalued relative to analyst consensus. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the semiconductor cycle turns and Vishay benefits from inventory restocking demand, analysts could rapidly raise targets above the current price, making the negative asymmetry temporary rather than structural. | ||
The dividend is flagged as a yield trap — offering a high yield that is not safely covered by free cash flow — which means the yield is likely to be cut, and investors attracted by the high income may face both a dividend reduction and capital loss simultaneously. Catalyst breakdown | If the company maintains the dividend for 4 consecutive quarters without a cut, and free cash flow coverage rises above 70%, the yield trap designation would be falsified. | →Stable |
| CounterSome yield trap designations are overly conservative; if the free cash flow deficit is genuinely cyclical (inventory-driven), the dividend may be sustained through the cycle using balance sheet liquidity without an actual cut. | ||
The company has beaten earnings in only 1 of the last 4 quarters, with 2 misses and 1 inline result, and the average EPS surprise is -7.3% — a negative trend that combined with the free cash flow quality flag suggests operational fundamentals are deteriorating. Earnings | Earnings per share should recover to beat consensus estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters to reverse the negative trend, with at least 1 quarter showing EPS above $0.07. | →Stable |
| CounterWith a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 — one of the strongest in the semiconductor sector — the structural financial health may be stronger than the recent earnings misses suggest, and the misses may reflect temporary margin compression rather than a structural break. | ||
Free cash flow is negative 3,853% relative to net income — an extreme earnings quality red flag — indicating the company is reporting accounting profits while consuming massive cash, which is unsustainable and typically precedes either a dividend cut or equity dilution.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income should recover to above 50% within 12 months, indicating the cash consumption has stabilized and the business is generating real returns for shareholders.
CounterThe disconnect between accounting income and free cash flow in semiconductor companies often reflects temporary working capital investment cycles tied to inventory restocking; if that cycle normalizes, the cash flow picture could improve rapidly.
The stock trades at $63.72 while the data bundle shows the analyst target has already been reached with a -54.6% negative asymmetry, implying the current price is significantly above where analysts believe fair value lies over the next 12 months.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The analyst consensus price target should be revised upward above $65 within 12 months to restore positive upside, otherwise the stock is overvalued relative to analyst consensus.
CounterIf the semiconductor cycle turns and Vishay benefits from inventory restocking demand, analysts could rapidly raise targets above the current price, making the negative asymmetry temporary rather than structural.
The dividend is flagged as a yield trap — offering a high yield that is not safely covered by free cash flow — which means the yield is likely to be cut, and investors attracted by the high income may face both a dividend reduction and capital loss simultaneously.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- If the company maintains the dividend for 4 consecutive quarters without a cut, and free cash flow coverage rises above 70%, the yield trap designation would be falsified.
CounterSome yield trap designations are overly conservative; if the free cash flow deficit is genuinely cyclical (inventory-driven), the dividend may be sustained through the cycle using balance sheet liquidity without an actual cut.
The company has beaten earnings in only 1 of the last 4 quarters, with 2 misses and 1 inline result, and the average EPS surprise is -7.3% — a negative trend that combined with the free cash flow quality flag suggests operational fundamentals are deteriorating.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share should recover to beat consensus estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters to reverse the negative trend, with at least 1 quarter showing EPS above $0.07.
CounterWith a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 — one of the strongest in the semiconductor sector — the structural financial health may be stronger than the recent earnings misses suggest, and the misses may reflect temporary margin compression rather than a structural break.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vishay Intertechnology is a semiconductor passive component manufacturer trading at $63.72 — well above the analyst consensus target implied by the negative asymmetry — with serious quality concerns including a free cash flow deficit of -3,853% relative to net income, mixed earnings history with 2 misses in 4 quarters, and a dividend flagged as a yield trap, making this a deteriorating-quality situation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -3853% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.8 |
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.1 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.9 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 1.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.38 (n=5)
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.7 |
| quality rank | 2.9 |
| growth rank | 4.2 |
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 3.3 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.9 |
| days to cover | 9.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.1 |
| debt equity | 7.8 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 16%
- ▸High IV: 125%
- ▸Above max pain $12
Catalyst
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.49
Upside
-37.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.78>1.3
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 6.8 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 6.8, Technical at 6.7, and Insider at 5.0; the weakest are Quality at 2.8, Momentum at 3.1, and Catalyst at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.49 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Catastrophic Free Cash Flow Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income remains below negative 500% for more than 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Negative Asymmetry Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $55, more than 14% below the current price of $63.72, indicating further analyst target degradation.
- P3Dividend Yield Trap Risk
Trip ifDividend is cut by more than 25% below the current level, confirming the yield trap has triggered.
- P4Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.