Value
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.7 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.13
- ▸Attractively valued
VRTS · Why this verdict
Why Virtus Investment Partners (VRTS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Virtus is a cheaply valued asset manager at a forward P/E of 5.5x, but it has missed EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, revenue is shrinking, insiders are selling heavily and the price is above the $110.29 analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
EPS missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no beats, including $5.54 against $6.09 in the quarter reported 2026-07-30. Last 4 quarters | EPS meets or beats estimates in the next 2 quarters, starting with the report due in 8 days. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe misses were modest, between 1% and 9%, and the company beat in 4 of 5 quarters before them. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 5.5x with a PEG of 0.13, a steep discount that rewards holders if earnings stabilize. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 9x while earnings hold, with the price rising. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low multiple on a declining-revenue asset manager may be a value trap if outflows continue. | ||
Revenue is declining about 4%, with quarterly revenue of $201M for the period ended 2026-06-30 versus $211M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stabilizes and exceeds $215M within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAsset manager revenue follows assets under management, so continued outflows or a market drop could deepen the decline. | ||
Insiders sold about $2.57M of stock across 8 transactions in 90 days with no buys, equal to 0.328% of market cap. Insider | Insider selling slows to a low level over the coming year. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSales spread across 8 transactions may reflect routine compensation-related selling rather than a bearish view. | ||
At $118.23 the stock trades above the $110.29 analyst target (upside -6.7%), leaving a negative reward-to-risk ratio of -0.97 against 7% downside. Analyst target | Analyst targets are raised above the current price if earnings stop missing. | →Stable |
| CounterThe price is below its 200-day average with a downward slope, so a price above the target may reflect lagging analyst updates, not overvaluation. | ||
EPS missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no beats, including $5.54 against $6.09 in the quarter reported 2026-07-30.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates in the next 2 quarters, starting with the report due in 8 days.
CounterThe misses were modest, between 1% and 9%, and the company beat in 4 of 5 quarters before them.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 5.5x with a PEG of 0.13, a steep discount that rewards holders if earnings stabilize.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 9x while earnings hold, with the price rising.
CounterA very low multiple on a declining-revenue asset manager may be a value trap if outflows continue.
Revenue is declining about 4%, with quarterly revenue of $201M for the period ended 2026-06-30 versus $211M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stabilizes and exceeds $215M within 12 months.
CounterAsset manager revenue follows assets under management, so continued outflows or a market drop could deepen the decline.
Insiders sold about $2.57M of stock across 8 transactions in 90 days with no buys, equal to 0.328% of market cap.
↑ImprovingInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling slows to a low level over the coming year.
CounterSales spread across 8 transactions may reflect routine compensation-related selling rather than a bearish view.
At $118.23 the stock trades above the $110.29 analyst target (upside -6.7%), leaving a negative reward-to-risk ratio of -0.97 against 7% downside.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above the current price if earnings stop missing.
CounterThe price is below its 200-day average with a downward slope, so a price above the target may reflect lagging analyst updates, not overvaluation.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 4.2 |
| Op margin | 4.7 |
| Net margin | 7.3 |
| Current ratio | 9.0 |
| FCF quality | 3.8 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 47% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.4 |
| EPS growth | 3.8 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -4%
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $60,284 (0.008% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 3.6 |
| growth rank | 2.9 |
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.2 |
| support resistance | 6.6 |
| 52w position | 3.5 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.3 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| beta | 5.4 |
| debt equity | 8.2 |
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.6>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-1.32
Upside
-9.2%
Downside
6.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.39>1.3, MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.5; weakest: Growth at 2.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Insider at 5.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.9; the weakest are Growth at 2.6, Catalyst at 3.4, and Quality at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.32 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Deep Value Forward Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 9x from the current 5.5x.
- P3Declining Revenue Trend
Trip ifQuarterly revenue exceeds $215M for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider net selling stays below $500,000 over 90 days.
- P5Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $125 from the current $110.29.