Value
8.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/S | 3.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.3x
- ▸Attractively valued
VOXR · Why this verdict
Why Vox Royalty (VOXR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
VOXR screens as a high-quality, high-growth dividend payer that has compounded strong returns, with bullish trend-continuation momentum, but its $387M market cap sits just below the engine's $400M investable minimum and its asymmetry gate narrowly failed, alongside a P/E expansion-risk warning.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a $387M market cap, VOXR sits below the engine's $400M minimum threshold, excluding it from the investable universe regardless of its fundamentals. Warnings | Market cap should rise above $400M over the next 12 months to re-enter the investable universe. | — |
| CounterA $13M gap to the threshold is small and could close on ordinary price appreciation unrelated to fundamental improvement. | ||
The engine flags a pattern where forward P/E (17.1x) trades at roughly double trailing P/E, a warning that current earnings strength may not persist across the cycle. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should converge back toward trailing P/E as earnings estimates stabilize over the next 12 months. | Tripped— |
| CounterA wide forward-versus-trailing P/E gap can also reflect conservative near-term estimates rather than an earnings peak. | ||
Quality notes cite a 49% ROE, a wide economic moat, and an elite Rule of 40 score of 243, reflecting a business that has compounded strong returns with growth. Quality breakdown | ROE and Rule of 40 should stay elevated over the next 12 months, reinforcing the quality read. | — |
| CounterA Rule of 40 score this elite in a royalty business can reflect a temporary commodity-price tailwind rather than durable structural strength. | ||
The engine's asymmetry gate failed by a narrow margin (1.4 versus the 1.5 spot minimum), curbing position sizing despite bullish trend-continuation momentum (RSI 62). Engine gate (failed) | Asymmetry ratio should rise above 1.5 over the next 12 months as either upside expands or downside risk narrows. | — |
| CounterA narrow gate failure this close to threshold may simply reflect noise in the upside/downside estimate rather than a genuine reward-to-risk problem. | ||
Catalyst notes describe VOXR as a dividend aristocrat yielding 1.1%, adding an income-support layer alongside its earnings track record of 2 consecutive beats. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend should be maintained or grown and the earnings-beat streak should continue over the next 12 months. | — |
| CounterA 1.1% yield is modest and provides limited downside cushion if the earnings-beat streak breaks. | ||
At a $387M market cap, VOXR sits below the engine's $400M minimum threshold, excluding it from the investable universe regardless of its fundamentals.
—Warnings
- Expectation
- Market cap should rise above $400M over the next 12 months to re-enter the investable universe.
CounterA $13M gap to the threshold is small and could close on ordinary price appreciation unrelated to fundamental improvement.
The engine flags a pattern where forward P/E (17.1x) trades at roughly double trailing P/E, a warning that current earnings strength may not persist across the cycle.
Tripped—Valuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should converge back toward trailing P/E as earnings estimates stabilize over the next 12 months.
CounterA wide forward-versus-trailing P/E gap can also reflect conservative near-term estimates rather than an earnings peak.
Quality notes cite a 49% ROE, a wide economic moat, and an elite Rule of 40 score of 243, reflecting a business that has compounded strong returns with growth.
—Quality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE and Rule of 40 should stay elevated over the next 12 months, reinforcing the quality read.
CounterA Rule of 40 score this elite in a royalty business can reflect a temporary commodity-price tailwind rather than durable structural strength.
The engine's asymmetry gate failed by a narrow margin (1.4 versus the 1.5 spot minimum), curbing position sizing despite bullish trend-continuation momentum (RSI 62).
—Engine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Asymmetry ratio should rise above 1.5 over the next 12 months as either upside expands or downside risk narrows.
CounterA narrow gate failure this close to threshold may simply reflect noise in the upside/downside estimate rather than a genuine reward-to-risk problem.
Catalyst notes describe VOXR as a dividend aristocrat yielding 1.1%, adding an income-support layer alongside its earnings track record of 2 consecutive beats.
—Catalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend should be maintained or grown and the earnings-beat streak should continue over the next 12 months.
CounterA 1.1% yield is modest and provides limited downside cushion if the earnings-beat streak breaks.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 8.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 49%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Rule of 40: 243 (elite)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 123% YoY
Momentum
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 58%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
7.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 9.6 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.5 |
| support resistance | 9.0 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 1.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 25.50
- ▸High IV: 137%
- ▸Above max pain $4
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $350M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:36d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.38
Upside
+37.2%
Downside
8.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.5) with weak momentum (2.2)
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.2<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 4.38.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.5, and Value at 8.2; the weakest are Momentum at 2.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.9, and Catalyst at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.38 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Below Market Cap Investable Minimum
Trip ifMarket capitalization rises above $400M from the current $387M.
- P2Pe Expansion Risk PatternTripped
Trip ifForward P/E falls below 10x from the current 17.1x.
- P3Elite Quality Strong Returns Metrics
Trip ifRule of 40 score falls below 100 from the current elite level of 243.
- P4Asymmetry Gate Narrowly Failed
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.5 from the current 1.43.
- P5Dividend Aristocrat Income Support
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 0.5% from the current 1.1%, or the company misses 2 consecutive earnings reports.