Value
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| PEG | 5.2 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.44
V · Why this verdict
Why Visa (V) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The company delivers exceptional quality — a Rule of 40 of 66, 52% margins, and a wide economic moat — at a forward P/E of 21.5x with 14.7% upside to the analyst-based take-profit and a risk/reward of roughly 3.7-to-1. Entry is complicated by a confirmed death cross, momentum well below required levels, and recent insider selling; the setup favors patience until the technical backdrop stabilizes.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company scores at the top of its peer group for both returns and margins: ROE of 60%, net margins of 52%, a wide economic moat, and a Rule of 40 of 66 — rated elite in the data — backed by a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. These metrics place the business in best-in-class territory for quality across the covered peer set. Quality breakdown | Net margins hold above 50% and ROE sustains above 55% over the next 12 months, confirming the durability of the high-return franchise. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong quality scores alone may not catalyze a price re-rating when momentum is poor and technicals are unfavorable; a wide moat and high returns can persist on the income statement while failing to attract buyers if the technical setup remains broken. | ||
A confirmed death cross — a hard technical block — has been triggered, and price has recently moved below the 200-day moving average by a shallow margin; the data notes the breach is recent and shallow, making a definitive downtrend call premature, but with momentum at 2.7, well below the 4.5 threshold required for a technical entry signal, the near-term price backdrop is unfavorable. Warnings | Momentum recovers above 4.5 and the death cross resolves within 9 months, removing the technical block and allowing the quality thesis to translate into price. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the shallow 200-day breach deepens and distribution continues, the temporary characterization may prove premature — a technical deterioration from the current level would extend the period in which strong fundamentals fail to find a price catalyst. | ||
The company delivered earnings beats in three of the four most recent quarters, with the most recent printing a 6.8% positive surprise; the one non-beat in the window was a marginal inline result, not a miss. Analysts price a 25% upside to their consensus target, reflecting high sell-side conviction in the fundamental case. Catalyst breakdown | The beat cadence continues with at least one positive earnings surprise in the next two reporting cycles, and analyst target revisions trend upward over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average earnings surprise across the trailing four quarters is only approximately 3%, with two of the four results barely clearing the estimate; a pattern of marginal prints could undercut analyst upside assumptions and compress a premium multiple that already screens expensive versus peers. | ||
Insiders have registered three sales and zero purchases over the past 90 days, with net shares sold totaling 42,744 and the insider signal classified as bearish, suggesting insiders may not share sell-side conviction at the current price level. Insider | Insider transaction flow shifts toward neutral or net positive over the next two quarters, with at least one insider purchase appearing in the 90-day window. | →Stable |
| CounterIf insider selling continues without offsetting purchases, the bearish signal may persist and compound the existing technical headwind, creating a dual overhang — technical and insider — against the otherwise strong fundamental case. | ||
The company scores at the top of its peer group for both returns and margins: ROE of 60%, net margins of 52%, a wide economic moat, and a Rule of 40 of 66 — rated elite in the data — backed by a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. These metrics place the business in best-in-class territory for quality across the covered peer set.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins hold above 50% and ROE sustains above 55% over the next 12 months, confirming the durability of the high-return franchise.
CounterStrong quality scores alone may not catalyze a price re-rating when momentum is poor and technicals are unfavorable; a wide moat and high returns can persist on the income statement while failing to attract buyers if the technical setup remains broken.
A confirmed death cross — a hard technical block — has been triggered, and price has recently moved below the 200-day moving average by a shallow margin; the data notes the breach is recent and shallow, making a definitive downtrend call premature, but with momentum at 2.7, well below the 4.5 threshold required for a technical entry signal, the near-term price backdrop is unfavorable.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above 4.5 and the death cross resolves within 9 months, removing the technical block and allowing the quality thesis to translate into price.
CounterIf the shallow 200-day breach deepens and distribution continues, the temporary characterization may prove premature — a technical deterioration from the current level would extend the period in which strong fundamentals fail to find a price catalyst.
The company delivered earnings beats in three of the four most recent quarters, with the most recent printing a 6.8% positive surprise; the one non-beat in the window was a marginal inline result, not a miss. Analysts price a 25% upside to their consensus target, reflecting high sell-side conviction in the fundamental case.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat cadence continues with at least one positive earnings surprise in the next two reporting cycles, and analyst target revisions trend upward over 12 months.
CounterThe average earnings surprise across the trailing four quarters is only approximately 3%, with two of the four results barely clearing the estimate; a pattern of marginal prints could undercut analyst upside assumptions and compress a premium multiple that already screens expensive versus peers.
Insiders have registered three sales and zero purchases over the past 90 days, with net shares sold totaling 42,744 and the insider signal classified as bearish, suggesting insiders may not share sell-side conviction at the current price level.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider transaction flow shifts toward neutral or net positive over the next two quarters, with at least one insider purchase appearing in the 90-day window.
CounterIf insider selling continues without offsetting purchases, the bearish signal may persist and compound the existing technical headwind, creating a dual overhang — technical and insider — against the otherwise strong fundamental case.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 6.7 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 60%
- ▸Strong margins: 52%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.8 |
| EPS growth | 9.1 |
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 3.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 20%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $14,154,870 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.9 |
| quality rank | 9.1 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.1 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 7.3 |
| put call | 6.3 |
| implied vol | 6.9 |
| beta | 8.4 |
| debt equity | 7.0 |
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 82.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.44, quality 8.8/10, growth 7.9/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (9)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.8>=7.5+momentum=5.4>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
1.49
Upside
+10.4%
Downside
7.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupMOMENTUM_CONT — Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityCONSERVATIVE — Beta 0.77<0.8, Div 82.0%, Q=8.8
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.8 and growth 7.9 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 1.49 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.8, Growth at 7.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Value at 4.0, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.49 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company scores at the top of its peer group for both returns and margins: ROE of 60%, net margins of 52%, a wide economic moat, and a Rule of 40 of 66 — rated elite in the data — backed by a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. These metrics place the business in best-in-class territory for quality across the covered peer set.
Trip ifNet margin compresses below 46% from current 52% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2A confirmed death cross — a hard technical block — has been triggered, and price has recently moved below the 200-day moving average by a shallow margin; the data notes the breach is recent and shallow, making a definitive downtrend call premature, but with momentum at 2.7, well below the 4.5 threshold required for a technical entry signal, the near-term price backdrop is unfavorable.
Trip ifMomentum recovers above 4.5 for 2 consecutive weeks, signaling the technical block has lifted.
- P3The company delivered earnings beats in three of the four most recent quarters, with the most recent printing a 6.8% positive surprise; the one non-beat in the window was a marginal inline result, not a miss. Analysts price a 25% upside to their consensus target, reflecting high sell-side conviction in the fundamental case.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Insiders have registered three sales and zero purchases over the past 90 days, with net shares sold totaling 42,744 and the insider signal classified as bearish, suggesting insiders may not share sell-side conviction at the current price level.
Trip ifInsider net purchases exceed 10,000 shares over a 90-day period, confirming the selling trend has reversed.