Value
7.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 7.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.87
- ▸Attractively valued
UVSP · Why this verdict
Why Univest Financial (UVSP) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Univest is a regional bank with strong 29% margins and a forward P/E of 10.1x, but weak revenue growth, a latest-quarter EPS miss and a price already above the $38.67 analyst target limit the case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Margins are strong at 29%, but the business has no competitive moat and a return on assets score of only 0.7/10, so profitability depends on the rate cycle. Quality breakdown | Net margin stays above 25% over 12 months, supporting earnings per share. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWithout a moat, deposit competition and rate cuts could squeeze net interest margin and compress margins quickly. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.1x with a PEG of 0.55, which is attractive for a regional bank with positive earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings hold so the forward P/E stays below 13x while the share price rises. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRegional banks trade at low multiples for a reason, and the price is already near the analyst target, so most of the valuation gap may be closed. | ||
Revenue is declining about 2% in the data, and growth ranks near the bottom of peers, which limits earnings growth to cost control and buybacks. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue returns to growth above the $90.5M next-quarter estimate within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterReported quarterly revenue of $84.4M is above $81.0M a year earlier, so the decline may reflect sequential timing rather than a weaker franchise. | ||
EPS beat in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but the latest quarter missed at $0.78 against a $0.98 estimate, a 20.1% shortfall. Last 4 quarters | EPS returns to beating estimates in the next 2 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 20% miss after steady beats could mark the start of margin pressure, as the thesis for the stock rests on earnings momentum. | ||
At $39.60 the stock trades above the $38.67 analyst target (upside -2.3%), so the reward-to-risk ratio is negative at -0.47. Analyst target | Analyst targets are raised above the current price as earnings stabilize. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets for regional banks are updated slowly after earnings, so the price may not signal overvaluation. | ||
Margins are strong at 29%, but the business has no competitive moat and a return on assets score of only 0.7/10, so profitability depends on the rate cycle.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin stays above 25% over 12 months, supporting earnings per share.
CounterWithout a moat, deposit competition and rate cuts could squeeze net interest margin and compress margins quickly.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.1x with a PEG of 0.55, which is attractive for a regional bank with positive earnings growth.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings hold so the forward P/E stays below 13x while the share price rises.
CounterRegional banks trade at low multiples for a reason, and the price is already near the analyst target, so most of the valuation gap may be closed.
Revenue is declining about 2% in the data, and growth ranks near the bottom of peers, which limits earnings growth to cost control and buybacks.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue returns to growth above the $90.5M next-quarter estimate within 12 months.
CounterReported quarterly revenue of $84.4M is above $81.0M a year earlier, so the decline may reflect sequential timing rather than a weaker franchise.
EPS beat in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but the latest quarter missed at $0.78 against a $0.98 estimate, a 20.1% shortfall.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS returns to beating estimates in the next 2 quarters.
CounterA 20% miss after steady beats could mark the start of margin pressure, as the thesis for the stock rests on earnings momentum.
At $39.60 the stock trades above the $38.67 analyst target (upside -2.3%), so the reward-to-risk ratio is negative at -0.47.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above the current price as earnings stabilize.
CounterAnalyst targets for regional banks are updated slowly after earnings, so the price may not signal overvaluation.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 29%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
3.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
| EPS growth | 4.4 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.40 (n=1)
Insider
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $552,730 (0.049% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 1.1 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 4.9 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.2 |
| beta | 9.0 |
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.10
Upside
-5.5%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.1B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6; weakest: Growth at 3.2. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6, Value at 7.5, and Technical at 6.3; the weakest are Growth at 3.2, Insider at 3.6, and Peer rank at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 13x from the current 10.1x.
- P2Strong Margins No Moat
Trip ifNet margin falls below 20% from the current 29%.
- P3Weak Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue exceeds $90M for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Earnings Beats With Latest Miss
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below -10% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Price Near Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $45 from the current $38.67.