Value
9.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.8 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.29
- ▸Attractively valued
UVE · Why this verdict
Why UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS IN (UVE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Universal Insurance Holdings pairs a 4-for-4 earnings beat streak, a 41% return on equity and a forward P/E of 8.7x, but the stock now trades above the $43.35 analyst target and a property insurer carries catastrophe risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company beat EPS estimates in all 4 of the last quarters, averaging a 45.9% surprise, including $1.93 against a $1.34 estimate in the latest quarter. Last 4 quarters | EPS continues to beat estimates over the next 4 quarters, keeping earnings growth positive. | →Stable |
| CounterProperty insurer earnings swing with storm seasons and reserve releases, so a single large catastrophe loss could end the streak. | ||
Return on equity is an excellent 41% with cash conversion of 130% of net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 of 9, indicating a high-quality earnings base. Quality breakdown | Return on equity stays above 25% and free cash flow stays above net income over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA high ROE on a thin equity base may reflect leverage and a favorable weather year rather than durable underwriting skill. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 8.7x with a PEG of 0.28, a deep discount that leaves room for multiple expansion if earnings hold. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings hold up so the forward P/E stays below 12x while the price rises. | →Stable |
| CounterInsurers often trade at low multiples because earnings are volatile and peak-cycle profits tend to mean-revert. | ||
At $48.50 the stock trades above the $43.35 analyst target (upside -10.6%), so the reward-to-risk ratio is negative at -0.8 and the near-term upside is limited. Analyst target | Analyst targets are raised toward the current price as earnings beats continue. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag a fast earnings beat cycle, and a beat streak with a stock 4.4% from its 52-week high may keep drawing buyers. | ||
Insiders sold about $1.76M of stock over 90 days with no buys, equal to 0.132% of market cap, a minor but one-sided signal. Insider | Insider net selling stays small relative to market cap over the coming year. | →Stable |
| CounterExecutives selling after a strong run without any buying can indicate they see limited upside at current prices. | ||
The company beat EPS estimates in all 4 of the last quarters, averaging a 45.9% surprise, including $1.93 against a $1.34 estimate in the latest quarter.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS continues to beat estimates over the next 4 quarters, keeping earnings growth positive.
CounterProperty insurer earnings swing with storm seasons and reserve releases, so a single large catastrophe loss could end the streak.
Return on equity is an excellent 41% with cash conversion of 130% of net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 of 9, indicating a high-quality earnings base.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity stays above 25% and free cash flow stays above net income over 12 months.
CounterA high ROE on a thin equity base may reflect leverage and a favorable weather year rather than durable underwriting skill.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 8.7x with a PEG of 0.28, a deep discount that leaves room for multiple expansion if earnings hold.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings hold up so the forward P/E stays below 12x while the price rises.
CounterInsurers often trade at low multiples because earnings are volatile and peak-cycle profits tend to mean-revert.
At $48.50 the stock trades above the $43.35 analyst target (upside -10.6%), so the reward-to-risk ratio is negative at -0.8 and the near-term upside is limited.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised toward the current price as earnings beats continue.
CounterAnalyst targets lag a fast earnings beat cycle, and a beat streak with a stock 4.4% from its 52-week high may keep drawing buyers.
Insiders sold about $1.76M of stock over 90 days with no buys, equal to 0.132% of market cap, a minor but one-sided signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider net selling stays small relative to market cap over the coming year.
CounterExecutives selling after a strong run without any buying can indicate they see limited upside at current prices.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 1.3 |
| Op margin | 6.6 |
| Net margin | 7.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.5 |
| FCF quality | 9.3 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 41%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 130% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 8.1 |
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.2 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.45 (n=2)
Insider
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,764,926 (0.130% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.9 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.2 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 8.1 |
| implied vol | 6.3 |
| beta | 9.1 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:114d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.82
Upside
-11.6%
Downside
14.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 9.8; weakest: Technical at 4.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4, and Peer rank at 7.2; the weakest are Technical at 4.2, Insider at 4.7, and Sentiment at 5.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.82 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2High Return On Equity
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 25% from the current 41%.
- P3Cheap Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 12x from the current 8.7x without matching earnings growth.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $55 from the current $43.35.
- P5Modest Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider net selling exceeds $5M over 90 days.