Value
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.3 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 3.7 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.8x
- ▸PEG: 2.98
UTL · Why this verdict
Why UNITIL (UTL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Unitil is a small utility with steady, in-line earnings and rising estimates, but the price is above the $45.90 analyst target, cash conversion is weak and quality sits just under the minimum.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At $55.47 the stock trades above the $45.90 analyst target (upside -17.3%), leaving a negative reward-to-risk ratio of -1.8 against 9.6% downside. Analyst target | Analyst targets rise toward the current price within 12 months as earnings and rate-base growth are confirmed. | →Stable |
| CounterUtilities with a golden cross and strong momentum can hold premium valuations as investors favor defensive yield. | ||
Earnings quality shows a red flag with free cash flow at -116% of net income, even though the Piotroski F-Score is a strong 7 of 9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive relative to net income as capital spending peaks over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy regulated-utility capital spending is normal and recovered through rates, so negative free cash flow may not signal weak earnings. | ||
EPS has been close to estimates, with 2 beats, 1 miss and 1 in-line result over the last 4 quarters, including $0.26 against $0.26 in the latest quarter. Last 4 quarters | EPS stays within a few percent of estimates over the next 4 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe miss history in 2024 and 2025 shows surprises can turn negative, and earnings are reported in 1 day. | ||
Estimates are up 51.0% over 30 days, which supports earnings momentum for the next year. Catalyst breakdown | Estimate revisions stay positive and the 15.8x forward P/E holds as earnings rise. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA large revision from a small base can reflect timing of seasonal quarters rather than a durable earnings change. | ||
The data flags a yield-trap warning, with high yield but unsafe coverage and a dividend safety score of 5.3/10. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend coverage improves so the safety score rises well above 5.3 over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRegulated utilities rarely cut dividends, and the long record of payouts makes a cut unlikely. | ||
At $55.47 the stock trades above the $45.90 analyst target (upside -17.3%), leaving a negative reward-to-risk ratio of -1.8 against 9.6% downside.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets rise toward the current price within 12 months as earnings and rate-base growth are confirmed.
CounterUtilities with a golden cross and strong momentum can hold premium valuations as investors favor defensive yield.
Earnings quality shows a red flag with free cash flow at -116% of net income, even though the Piotroski F-Score is a strong 7 of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive relative to net income as capital spending peaks over the next 12 months.
CounterHeavy regulated-utility capital spending is normal and recovered through rates, so negative free cash flow may not signal weak earnings.
EPS has been close to estimates, with 2 beats, 1 miss and 1 in-line result over the last 4 quarters, including $0.26 against $0.26 in the latest quarter.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS stays within a few percent of estimates over the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe miss history in 2024 and 2025 shows surprises can turn negative, and earnings are reported in 1 day.
Estimates are up 51.0% over 30 days, which supports earnings momentum for the next year.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Estimate revisions stay positive and the 15.8x forward P/E holds as earnings rise.
CounterA large revision from a small base can reflect timing of seasonal quarters rather than a durable earnings change.
The data flags a yield-trap warning, with high yield but unsafe coverage and a dividend safety score of 5.3/10.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend coverage improves so the safety score rises well above 5.3 over 12 months.
CounterRegulated utilities rarely cut dividends, and the long record of payouts makes a cut unlikely.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 2.3 |
| Gross margin | 4.0 |
| Op margin | 5.6 |
| Net margin | 4.7 |
| Current ratio | 2.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -116% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.0 |
| EPS growth | 3.1 |
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.2 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.4 |
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 5.8 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.3 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 8.0 |
| implied vol | 1.8 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.0 |
- ▸High IV: 69%
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.3 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.68
Upside
-18.7%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.7=NEGATIVE outcome against Momentum at 7.5 and asymmetric R:R of -1.68.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.5, Catalyst at 6.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.2; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Quality at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.68 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $55 from the current $45.90.
- P2Weak Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income rises above 0% from the current -116%.
- P3Steady In Line Earnings
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below -10% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Rising Earnings Estimates
Trip if30-day estimate revisions drop to less than 0% from the current +51.0%.
- P5Dividend Safety Concern
Trip ifDividend safety score rises above 7.0 from the current 5.3.