Value
7.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 8.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.71
- ▸Attractively valued
USCB · Why this verdict
Why USCB Financial Holdings (USCB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
USCB Financial is a cheap Miami regional bank (forward P/E 8.7x, 30% margins) that has sold off sharply, but a $369M market cap, heavy real-estate and Miami concentration, negative news and falling momentum limit the case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Real-estate-secured loans are 71.1% of the loan book and lending is concentrated in the Miami metropolitan area, with 3 high-severity concentration risks. Bear case | Credit quality stays clean through a South Florida real-estate cycle over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA Miami real-estate downturn would hit loans, collateral values and deposits simultaneously. | ||
Profitability is solid, with 30% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, though the bank has no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score holds at 7 or higher and margins stay above 25%. | →Stable |
| CounterWithout a moat, margins can compress quickly if deposit costs rise or competitors price loans lower. | ||
The stock is attractively valued, with a forward P/E of 8.7x and a PEG ratio of 0.59. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 11x as earnings grow over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCheap valuation is often a response to credit risk, and the selloff may reflect real deterioration. | ||
The stock is in a sharp selloff, with an RSI of 28, a 12.5% gap down, volume 4.6x average and falling on-balance volume. Momentum breakdown | Price stabilizes and on-balance volume turns up, with RSI recovering above 40. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA volume surge on a selloff with falling OBV signals distribution, and negative news sentiment of -1.00 suggests more bad news may follow. | ||
The $21.10 analyst target is 5.5% above the $19.99 price against 7.2% downside, a reward-to-risk of about 0.8, with only 5 analysts covering. Targets | Analyst target rises above $23 after the price recovers. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst upside of 21% before the haircut does not hold after the haircut, and two of four recent quarters were earnings misses. | ||
Real-estate-secured loans are 71.1% of the loan book and lending is concentrated in the Miami metropolitan area, with 3 high-severity concentration risks.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Credit quality stays clean through a South Florida real-estate cycle over 12 months.
CounterA Miami real-estate downturn would hit loans, collateral values and deposits simultaneously.
Profitability is solid, with 30% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, though the bank has no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score holds at 7 or higher and margins stay above 25%.
CounterWithout a moat, margins can compress quickly if deposit costs rise or competitors price loans lower.
The stock is attractively valued, with a forward P/E of 8.7x and a PEG ratio of 0.59.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 11x as earnings grow over the next 12 months.
CounterCheap valuation is often a response to credit risk, and the selloff may reflect real deterioration.
The stock is in a sharp selloff, with an RSI of 28, a 12.5% gap down, volume 4.6x average and falling on-balance volume.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stabilizes and on-balance volume turns up, with RSI recovering above 40.
CounterA volume surge on a selloff with falling OBV signals distribution, and negative news sentiment of -1.00 suggests more bad news may follow.
The $21.10 analyst target is 5.5% above the $19.99 price against 7.2% downside, a reward-to-risk of about 0.8, with only 5 analysts covering.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst target rises above $23 after the price recovers.
CounterAnalyst upside of 21% before the haircut does not hold after the haircut, and two of four recent quarters were earnings misses.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 4.7 |
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 4.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $20,000 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 5.8 |
| growth rank | 4.2 |
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.4 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 6.1 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $373M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:67d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.03
Upside
-0.2%
Downside
5.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.0=NEGATIVE outcome against Risk (lower is worse) at 8.3 and asymmetric R:R of -0.03.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.3, Value at 7.7, and Technical at 6.5; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.3, Peer rank at 4.6, and Growth at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 11x from the current 8.7x.
- P2Strong Margins Solid Fundamentals
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from the current 7.
- P3Real Estate And Geographic Concentration
Trip ifReal-estate-secured loans exceed 80% of the loan portfolio from the current 71.1%.
- P4Oversold Selloff Capitulation
Trip ifPrice falls more than 4.4% to the $19.11 stop level.
- P5Analyst Upside Light Coverage
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.