Value
8.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.39
- ▸Attractively valued
USCB · Why this verdict
Why USCB Financial Holdings (USCB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
USCB is a profitable, attractively valued Miami regional bank with high real-estate and geographic concentration, weak momentum, and a price already above its target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Real estate secured loans make up 71.1% of the loan book and the franchise is concentrated in the Miami metropolitan area. Bear case | Credit quality holds with no deterioration in the real-estate loan book over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterConcentration in a single metro area and loan type is typical for community banks and has not prevented strong margins here. | ||
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 9.5x and a PEG of 0.42. Bull case | Forward P/E stays below 12x while earnings keep growing. | →Stable |
| CounterThe analyst target has already been reached, so cheapness may already be priced in. | ||
Profitability is strong, with margins of 30% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at 7/9 or higher and margins hold near 30%. | →Stable |
| CounterLast January's EPS of 0.24 against a 0.50 estimate shows earnings can disappoint sharply. | ||
Momentum at 3.1 is below the engine's 4.5 threshold, with falling on-balance volume. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum score recovers above 4.5 as volume accumulation returns. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI of 34 flags an uptrend pullback that the engine itself calls a buy opportunity. | ||
The price of $22.04 is already 3.9% above the target (upside of -3.9%), so limited upside remains. Warnings | Upside to target turns positive after earnings growth lifts the target. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe gap is small and a strong earnings report in 11 days could lift the target above the price. | ||
Real estate secured loans make up 71.1% of the loan book and the franchise is concentrated in the Miami metropolitan area.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Credit quality holds with no deterioration in the real-estate loan book over 12 months.
CounterConcentration in a single metro area and loan type is typical for community banks and has not prevented strong margins here.
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 9.5x and a PEG of 0.42.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 12x while earnings keep growing.
CounterThe analyst target has already been reached, so cheapness may already be priced in.
Profitability is strong, with margins of 30% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at 7/9 or higher and margins hold near 30%.
CounterLast January's EPS of 0.24 against a 0.50 estimate shows earnings can disappoint sharply.
Momentum at 3.1 is below the engine's 4.5 threshold, with falling on-balance volume.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 4.5 as volume accumulation returns.
CounterRSI of 34 flags an uptrend pullback that the engine itself calls a buy opportunity.
The price of $22.04 is already 3.9% above the target (upside of -3.9%), so limited upside remains.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Upside to target turns positive after earnings growth lifts the target.
CounterThe gap is small and a strong earnings report in 11 days could lift the target above the price.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.1 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.0 |
| EPS growth | 6.5 |
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 1.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 1.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
- ▸Volume surge (4.6x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 0.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
- ▸Negative news sentiment (-1.00)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
Technical
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.1 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
| gap | 7.5 |
- ▸Extreme gap down (-12.5%) - potential reversal
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 3.5 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $369M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:89d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.77
Upside
+5.5%
Downside
7.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 28, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.2<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.3 and asymmetric R:R of 0.77.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Technical at 8.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.2, Catalyst at 4.4, and Peer rank at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.77 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Real Estate Geographic Concentration
Trip ifReal estate secured loans share falls below 60% from current 71.1%.
- P2Attractive Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 14x from current 9.5x.
- P3Strong Profitability
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6/9 from current 8/9.
- P4Momentum Below Threshold
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from current 3.1.
- P5Analyst Target Reached
Trip ifUpside to target rises above 10% from current -3.9%.