Value
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
UPWK · Why this verdict
Why Upwork (UPWK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.3 |
| ROA | 4.3 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 6.7 |
| Net margin | 6.9 |
| Current ratio | 5.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 158% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 23 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.2 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 43%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,480,080 (0.142% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 5.8 |
| growth rank | 1.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.5 |
| support resistance | 6.0 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 0.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.1 |
| debt equity | 7.0 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 28% short, quality 7.5
- ▸Elevated put/call: 13.00
- ▸High IV: 97%
- ▸Above max pain $5
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -6.1% (30d)
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:54d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.53
Upside
+24.0%
Downside
9.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 9.0; weakest: Momentum at 2.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Quality at 6.8, and Growth at 6.4; the weakest are Momentum at 2.7, Insider at 3.4, and Peer rank at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.53 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.