Upstart Holdings (UPST) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $0.65
- Estimate
- $0.65
- Surprise
- +0.4%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $370.5M
- Score today
- 5.9/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
Upstart Holdings (UPST) reported adjusted EPS of $0.65, in line with the $0.65 estimate.
Coverage in the report window
- BTIG Maintains Buy on Upstart Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $40 — benzinga, 2026-11-03
- Needham Maintains Buy on Upstart Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $30 — benzinga, 2026-11-03
- Upstart Hldgs Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga, 2026-11-03
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates UPST Sell at 5.9/10; no pre/post engine snapshot brackets this report.
2 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +0.4% surprise compares with a -4.6% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
- Attractive valuation
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Customer: top three lending partners (61.0%)
- V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)
- Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $21.37
- Price target
- $34.14
- Stop
- $19.97
- Upside to target
- +59.8%
- Reward-to-risk
- 4.9:1
The stock trades at 42.7× trailing but 6.0× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Risk check: trading volume is running 2.2× its average — elevated turnover around the report window.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-04 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
UPST at TrendMatrix's latest read
For financials, the EPS print is only half the story: credit costs, reserve builds, and rate sensitivity decide how a quarter actually lands.
- Industry
- Credit Services
- Market cap
- $2.05B
- P/E (fwd)
- 6.0
- P/E (ttm)
- 42.7
- 52-week range
- $20.59–$52.10
- Off 52-week high
- 59.0%
- RSI (14)
- 43
- Volume vs avg
- 2.17×
- Score today
- 5.9/10