Value
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.7 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 6.7 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.08
- ▸Attractively valued
UHS · Why this verdict
Why Universal Health Services (UHS) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Universal Health Services trades at a forward P/E of just 5.8x with a reward-to-risk ratio of 7.89 and 33% analyst upside, offering deep value relative to healthcare facility peers, though confirmed downtrend momentum and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.17 create near-term headwinds.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Universal Health Services trades at a forward P/E of 5.8x and ranks in the top decile of healthcare facility peers on value metrics, representing an unusually steep discount for a company generating consistent earnings beats in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E multiple expands toward 8x as the downtrend resolves and the deep discount attracts institutional accumulation over 12 months | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow represents only 43% of net income — a quality red flag — and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend, which can sustain a low multiple for extended periods until momentum reverses | ||
UHS beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with a recent beat of 14.9% and an average surprise of 6.3%, while analysts see 48% upside to targets — one of the widest analyst upside gaps in the healthcare facility sector. Earnings | Earnings beats continue in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters and price advances toward the analyst target of $194 within 12 months | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe company recently missed one quarter and guidance is unknown, while an elevated put/call ratio of 2.17 signals the market is not aligned with the analyst bull case | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the moving average slope at negative 1.0% per 30 days and a death cross in place, representing a hard momentum block that prevents a clean technical entry at current levels. Momentum breakdown | Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average and MA slope turns positive within 6 months, removing the death cross block | ↑Improving |
| CounterMACD is improving and the asymmetry ratio of 5.0 is among the highest in the dataset, suggesting that the fundamental case is strong enough to attract buyers who can tolerate near-term technical weakness | ||
The put/call ratio of 2.17 combined with implied volatility of 73% indicates options market participants are positioning heavily for continued downside, reflecting widespread pessimism that would need to unwind for the stock to re-rate toward analyst targets. Options | Put/call ratio falls below 1.0 as the death cross resolves and fundamental strength reasserts, allowing bearish hedges to unwind over 12 months | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios at extreme levels can indicate capitulation rather than sustained bearish conviction, and the current reading of 2.17 has historically sometimes marked near-term bottoms | ||
Universal Health Services trades at a forward P/E of 5.8x and ranks in the top decile of healthcare facility peers on value metrics, representing an unusually steep discount for a company generating consistent earnings beats in 3 of the last 4 quarters.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E multiple expands toward 8x as the downtrend resolves and the deep discount attracts institutional accumulation over 12 months
CounterFree cash flow represents only 43% of net income — a quality red flag — and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend, which can sustain a low multiple for extended periods until momentum reverses
UHS beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with a recent beat of 14.9% and an average surprise of 6.3%, while analysts see 48% upside to targets — one of the widest analyst upside gaps in the healthcare facility sector.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters and price advances toward the analyst target of $194 within 12 months
CounterThe company recently missed one quarter and guidance is unknown, while an elevated put/call ratio of 2.17 signals the market is not aligned with the analyst bull case
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the moving average slope at negative 1.0% per 30 days and a death cross in place, representing a hard momentum block that prevents a clean technical entry at current levels.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average and MA slope turns positive within 6 months, removing the death cross block
CounterMACD is improving and the asymmetry ratio of 5.0 is among the highest in the dataset, suggesting that the fundamental case is strong enough to attract buyers who can tolerate near-term technical weakness
The put/call ratio of 2.17 combined with implied volatility of 73% indicates options market participants are positioning heavily for continued downside, reflecting widespread pessimism that would need to unwind for the stock to re-rate toward analyst targets.
↓DeterioratingOptions
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 1.0 as the death cross resolves and fundamental strength reasserts, allowing bearish hedges to unwind over 12 months
CounterElevated put/call ratios at extreme levels can indicate capitulation rather than sustained bearish conviction, and the current reading of 2.17 has historically sometimes marked near-term bottoms
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.1 |
| ROA | 5.6 |
| Gross margin | 4.8 |
| Op margin | 4.5 |
| Net margin | 4.3 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 3.4 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 43% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 5.5 |
Momentum
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 8.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.6 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 6.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 3.4 |
| 52w position | 2.7 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (5.1%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.0 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 3.7 |
| put call | 4.6 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 7.0 |
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.7 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 1 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.5% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.8>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.8>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.17
Upside
+18.6%
Downside
8.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Value at 8.6 (strongest), but EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.6, Momentum at 7.8, and Sentiment at 7.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.0, Growth at 5.2, and Quality at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.17 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Forward Pe At 5x
Trip ifForward P/E falls below 4x without a corresponding earnings increase, indicating further fundamental deterioration
- P2Strong Earnings Beat With Analyst Upside
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Death Cross Block
Trip ifPrice drops below $133 stop-loss level, more than 8% below current $145.97
- P4Elevated Put Call Ratio Sentiment
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 3.0 or implied volatility exceeds 100%