Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 6.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.24
- ▸Attractively valued
UBSI · Why this verdict
Why United Bankshares (UBSI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
United Bankshares has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8x and 41% net margins, but the stock has risen above its analyst price target and the negative asymmetry ratio of -1.09 eliminates the case for adding new exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
United Bankshares delivered earnings beats in all four of the most recent quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.2%, ranging from 4.7% to 11.7%, signaling consistent operational execution at the regional bank level. Earnings | The beat streak extends to at least 6 of 8 quarters and the average surprise remains above 5% over the next year as net interest income benefits from the current rate environment. | →Stable |
| CounterThe dividend yield may be unsafe despite the high yield figure, and net interest margin compression could reduce the earnings buffer that has enabled above-expectation results in recent quarters. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings of 11.8x and a PEG of 0.23, United Bankshares is priced at a discount to earnings growth expectations that is unusual for a high-quality regional bank with this earnings track record. Valuation breakdown | The forward price-to-earnings multiple expands toward 14x over the next 12 months as the market recognizes the quality of the earnings beat streak. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRegional bank valuations are structurally compressed due to credit cycle concerns and commercial real estate exposure, and a PEG of 0.23 may reflect risk premia rather than genuine undervaluation. | ||
The stock trades above all moving averages in a golden cross breakout with momentum scoring 7.8 out of 10, rising on-balance volume, and bullish MACD, placing it within 2.7% of its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price sustains the breakout above the 200-day moving average and approaches the 52-week high within 6 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAt 2.7% below the 52-week high with the analyst target already breached, the momentum is running out of natural buyers and the stock may experience a pullback as early holders take profits. | ||
The stock has risen 8.1% above the analyst consensus price target, producing a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.09 and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.17 that reflects almost no risk-adjusted upside at the current price of $44.86. Targets | Analyst consensus price target is revised upward above $50 following the next earnings beat, restoring meaningful upside from current levels. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe bank's consistent beat streak of 8.2% average positive surprise makes it likely that analysts will raise their targets following the upcoming earnings in 37 days, potentially resolving the upside exhaustion quickly. | ||
United Bankshares delivered earnings beats in all four of the most recent quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.2%, ranging from 4.7% to 11.7%, signaling consistent operational execution at the regional bank level.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to at least 6 of 8 quarters and the average surprise remains above 5% over the next year as net interest income benefits from the current rate environment.
CounterThe dividend yield may be unsafe despite the high yield figure, and net interest margin compression could reduce the earnings buffer that has enabled above-expectation results in recent quarters.
At a forward price-to-earnings of 11.8x and a PEG of 0.23, United Bankshares is priced at a discount to earnings growth expectations that is unusual for a high-quality regional bank with this earnings track record.
Tripped↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward price-to-earnings multiple expands toward 14x over the next 12 months as the market recognizes the quality of the earnings beat streak.
CounterRegional bank valuations are structurally compressed due to credit cycle concerns and commercial real estate exposure, and a PEG of 0.23 may reflect risk premia rather than genuine undervaluation.
The stock trades above all moving averages in a golden cross breakout with momentum scoring 7.8 out of 10, rising on-balance volume, and bullish MACD, placing it within 2.7% of its 52-week high.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price sustains the breakout above the 200-day moving average and approaches the 52-week high within 6 months.
CounterAt 2.7% below the 52-week high with the analyst target already breached, the momentum is running out of natural buyers and the stock may experience a pullback as early holders take profits.
The stock has risen 8.1% above the analyst consensus price target, producing a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.09 and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.17 that reflects almost no risk-adjusted upside at the current price of $44.86.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target is revised upward above $50 following the next earnings beat, restoring meaningful upside from current levels.
CounterThe bank's consistent beat streak of 8.2% average positive surprise makes it likely that analysts will raise their targets following the upcoming earnings in 37 days, potentially resolving the upside exhaustion quickly.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.1 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 41%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
| erm sentiment | 4.3 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $53,378 (0.001% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 4.1 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 3.1 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 7.9 |
| beta | 8.6 |
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.6 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 1 days
- ▸Dividend: 3.2%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $47.21 has reached target $47.26. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.3=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.31
Upside
-11.5%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $47.21 has reached target $47.26. No upside to wait for. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 7.6 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-2.3=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.6, Value at 7.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.5, Sentiment at 4.9, and Technical at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.31 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Four Quarter Beat Streak Avg 8 Pct
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the four-quarter perfect beat streak.
- P2Attractive Forward Pe PegTripped
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings ratio rises above 15x as earnings per share estimates are revised downward by more than 10%.
- P3Strong Momentum Breakout Above Mas
Trip ifPrice falls below $43.04, the current stop-loss level, breaking the golden cross breakout structure.
- P4Target Surpassed Upside Negative
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $42, more than 6% below the current price of $44.86, indicating analysts are now forecasting a price decline.