Value
5.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
UAMY · Why this verdict
Why United States Antimony Corporat (UAMY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Analysts set a consensus target implying 75% upside from the current price of $7.48, reflecting expectations that antimony's strategic importance as a critical mineral for defense and battery applications will drive revenue growth over the medium term. Sentiment | Stock price rises above $11 within 12 months, approaching the analyst consensus target, as antimony pricing and production volumes improve. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light at only 4 analysts and signal has been dampened accordingly, meaning the 75% upside figure rests on a thin base of research that may not reflect the consensus of well-informed sector specialists. | ||
Despite current price weakness, the 200-day moving average is still rising at +10.5% per month, suggesting the long-term uptrend remains intact and the current pullback below the moving average may represent a temporary consolidation rather than a trend reversal. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 6 months and sustains above it as momentum recovers from the current oversold condition. | →Stable |
| CounterOn-balance volume is falling and momentum scores only 1.8 out of 10, indicating sellers are in control of near-term price action regardless of what the longer-term moving average slope suggests. | ||
The company burns cash at a rate equal to 160% of revenue, meaning it consumes more than its entire top line in operating and capital expenditures, requiring continuous external capital to sustain operations. Quality breakdown | Cash burn rate falls below 50% of revenue within 12 months as antimony production ramps and revenue grows faster than operating costs. | →Stable |
| CounterEarly-stage mining and processing operations typically require heavy upfront capital investment before reaching breakeven, and the current burn rate may be a temporary reflection of build-out costs rather than ongoing structural inefficiency. | ||
Short interest of 21% combined with a put/call ratio of 4.56 indicates that a substantial portion of market participants are positioned for further declines, reflecting deep skepticism about the business model and financial sustainability. Key risks | Short interest falls below 15% and the put/call ratio drops below 2.0 within 12 months as the company demonstrates improving operational metrics. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest in a small mining company often reflects the mechanical dynamics of convertible note hedging rather than pure fundamental bearishness, meaning the short position may not reflect genuine informed conviction. | ||
Analysts set a consensus target implying 75% upside from the current price of $7.48, reflecting expectations that antimony's strategic importance as a critical mineral for defense and battery applications will drive revenue growth over the medium term.
→StableSentiment
- Expectation
- Stock price rises above $11 within 12 months, approaching the analyst consensus target, as antimony pricing and production volumes improve.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light at only 4 analysts and signal has been dampened accordingly, meaning the 75% upside figure rests on a thin base of research that may not reflect the consensus of well-informed sector specialists.
Despite current price weakness, the 200-day moving average is still rising at +10.5% per month, suggesting the long-term uptrend remains intact and the current pullback below the moving average may represent a temporary consolidation rather than a trend reversal.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 6 months and sustains above it as momentum recovers from the current oversold condition.
CounterOn-balance volume is falling and momentum scores only 1.8 out of 10, indicating sellers are in control of near-term price action regardless of what the longer-term moving average slope suggests.
The company burns cash at a rate equal to 160% of revenue, meaning it consumes more than its entire top line in operating and capital expenditures, requiring continuous external capital to sustain operations.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash burn rate falls below 50% of revenue within 12 months as antimony production ramps and revenue grows faster than operating costs.
CounterEarly-stage mining and processing operations typically require heavy upfront capital investment before reaching breakeven, and the current burn rate may be a temporary reflection of build-out costs rather than ongoing structural inefficiency.
Short interest of 21% combined with a put/call ratio of 4.56 indicates that a substantial portion of market participants are positioned for further declines, reflecting deep skepticism about the business model and financial sustainability.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 15% and the put/call ratio drops below 2.0 within 12 months as the company demonstrates improving operational metrics.
CounterHigh short interest in a small mining company often reflects the mechanical dynamics of convertible note hedging rather than pure fundamental bearishness, meaning the short position may not reflect genuine informed conviction.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
United States Antimony Corporation carries 48% analyst upside and a recent 7% gap up with a long-term rising moving average, but the business burns cash at 160% of revenue, has a quality score of 2.3 out of 10, and a put/call ratio of 4.56 signals heavy bearish hedging against the speculative thesis.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.4 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.4 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -160% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
1.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.7 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -3%
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.0 |
| OBV | 6.3 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+6.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 73%
Insider
5.4/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $93,125 (0.008% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.7 |
| quality rank | 2.9 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.2 |
| support resistance | 5.6 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.3 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 22%
- ▸High IV: 121%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:3.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:40d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- 8K_CRITICAL:4.01
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.14
Upside
+47.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -63% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Sentiment at 8.1 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 8.1, Value at 5.4, and Insider at 5.4; the weakest are Growth at 1.7, Quality at 2.1, and Peer rank at 2.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Extreme Cash Burn Rate
Trip ifCash burn rate remains above 100% of revenue for more than 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the business cannot reduce its capital consumption as operations scale.
- P2Analyst Upside 75 Pct
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $9, more than 30% below the current implied target level, indicating broad downward revision in the upside case.
- P3Ma Still Rising Pullback Setup
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average monthly rate of change falls below 0% for 2 consecutive months, signaling the long-term uptrend has reversed and the pullback has become a new downtrend.
- P4High Short Interest Put Call
Trip ifShort interest rises above 30%, more than 9 percentage points above the current 21%, indicating additional informed capital has joined the bearish thesis.