Value
5.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
UAMY · Why this verdict
Why United States Antimony Corporat (UAMY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.0/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
United States Antimony Corporation carries 48% analyst upside and a recent 7% gap up with a long-term rising moving average, but the business burns cash at 160% of revenue, has a quality score of 2.3 out of 10, and a put/call ratio of 4.56 signals heavy bearish hedging against the speculative thesis.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Analysts set a consensus target implying 75% upside from the current price of $7.48, reflecting expectations that antimony's strategic importance as a critical mineral for defense and battery applications will drive revenue growth over the medium term. Sentiment | Stock price rises above $11 within 12 months, approaching the analyst consensus target, as antimony pricing and production volumes improve. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light at only 4 analysts and signal has been dampened accordingly, meaning the 75% upside figure rests on a thin base of research that may not reflect the consensus of well-informed sector specialists. | ||
Despite current price weakness, the 200-day moving average is still rising at +10.5% per month, suggesting the long-term uptrend remains intact and the current pullback below the moving average may represent a temporary consolidation rather than a trend reversal. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 6 months and sustains above it as momentum recovers from the current oversold condition. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOn-balance volume is falling and momentum scores only 1.8 out of 10, indicating sellers are in control of near-term price action regardless of what the longer-term moving average slope suggests. | ||
The company burns cash at a rate equal to 160% of revenue, meaning it consumes more than its entire top line in operating and capital expenditures, requiring continuous external capital to sustain operations. Quality breakdown | Cash burn rate falls below 50% of revenue within 12 months as antimony production ramps and revenue grows faster than operating costs. | →Stable |
| CounterEarly-stage mining and processing operations typically require heavy upfront capital investment before reaching breakeven, and the current burn rate may be a temporary reflection of build-out costs rather than ongoing structural inefficiency. | ||
Short interest of 21% combined with a put/call ratio of 4.56 indicates that a substantial portion of market participants are positioned for further declines, reflecting deep skepticism about the business model and financial sustainability. Key risks | Short interest falls below 15% and the put/call ratio drops below 2.0 within 12 months as the company demonstrates improving operational metrics. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest in a small mining company often reflects the mechanical dynamics of convertible note hedging rather than pure fundamental bearishness, meaning the short position may not reflect genuine informed conviction. | ||
Analysts set a consensus target implying 75% upside from the current price of $7.48, reflecting expectations that antimony's strategic importance as a critical mineral for defense and battery applications will drive revenue growth over the medium term.
Tripped↓DeterioratingSentiment
- Expectation
- Stock price rises above $11 within 12 months, approaching the analyst consensus target, as antimony pricing and production volumes improve.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light at only 4 analysts and signal has been dampened accordingly, meaning the 75% upside figure rests on a thin base of research that may not reflect the consensus of well-informed sector specialists.
Despite current price weakness, the 200-day moving average is still rising at +10.5% per month, suggesting the long-term uptrend remains intact and the current pullback below the moving average may represent a temporary consolidation rather than a trend reversal.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 6 months and sustains above it as momentum recovers from the current oversold condition.
CounterOn-balance volume is falling and momentum scores only 1.8 out of 10, indicating sellers are in control of near-term price action regardless of what the longer-term moving average slope suggests.
The company burns cash at a rate equal to 160% of revenue, meaning it consumes more than its entire top line in operating and capital expenditures, requiring continuous external capital to sustain operations.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash burn rate falls below 50% of revenue within 12 months as antimony production ramps and revenue grows faster than operating costs.
CounterEarly-stage mining and processing operations typically require heavy upfront capital investment before reaching breakeven, and the current burn rate may be a temporary reflection of build-out costs rather than ongoing structural inefficiency.
Short interest of 21% combined with a put/call ratio of 4.56 indicates that a substantial portion of market participants are positioned for further declines, reflecting deep skepticism about the business model and financial sustainability.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 15% and the put/call ratio drops below 2.0 within 12 months as the company demonstrates improving operational metrics.
CounterHigh short interest in a small mining company often reflects the mechanical dynamics of convertible note hedging rather than pure fundamental bearishness, meaning the short position may not reflect genuine informed conviction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.4 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.4 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -160% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
1.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.7 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -3%
Momentum
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 2.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 30, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.9 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 126%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $93,125 (0.012% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.3 |
| quality rank | 2.7 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.4 |
| support resistance | 8.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.1 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 24%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.33
- ▸High IV: 111%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:6.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:24d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5
- 8K_CRITICAL:4.01
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
6.11
Upside
+91.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -72% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.7<4.5 outcome against Insider at 7.5 and asymmetric R:R of 6.11.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.5, Sentiment at 6.8, and Value at 5.4; the weakest are Momentum at 1.7, Growth at 1.7, and Quality at 2.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.11 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Extreme Cash Burn Rate
Trip ifCash burn rate remains above 100% of revenue for more than 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the business cannot reduce its capital consumption as operations scale.
- P2Analyst Upside 75 PctTripped
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $9, more than 30% below the current implied target level, indicating broad downward revision in the upside case.
- P3Ma Still Rising Pullback Setup
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average monthly rate of change falls below 0% for 2 consecutive months, signaling the long-term uptrend has reversed and the pullback has become a new downtrend.
- P4High Short Interest Put Call
Trip ifShort interest rises above 30%, more than 9 percentage points above the current 21%, indicating additional informed capital has joined the bearish thesis.