Value
5.0/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.9 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
TYG · Why this verdict
Why TYG (TYG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Tortoise Energy Infrastructure is a sub-$1 billion market cap fund with strong operating margins and a Rule of 40 score of 103, but it fails the minimum investability threshold, has weak momentum, and a deeply unfavorable historical earnings track record.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With a market capitalization of $0.92 billion, Tortoise Energy Infrastructure falls below the $1 billion minimum threshold required for the investable universe, limiting institutional participation and market liquidity. Warnings | Market cap grows above $1.0 billion through price appreciation or secondary offerings within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSmall closed-end funds can trade at persistent discounts regardless of quality, and the $1 billion cap floor itself may be an arbitrary constraint rather than a fundamental concern. | ||
The fund posts a Rule of 40 score of 103 and operating margins of 78%, which rank among the best in its peer group and indicate the underlying energy infrastructure portfolio generates exceptional cash returns. Quality breakdown | Operating margins remain above 60% and the Rule of 40 score stays above 80 over the next four quarters. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is only 12% of net income, flagging a significant disconnect between reported earnings and actual cash generation that undermines the margin quality signal. | ||
The momentum score of 3.6 falls below the minimum gate of 4.5, and on-balance volume is declining, indicating sellers are in control of price action despite the oversold RSI reading of 27. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score rises above 4.5 and on-balance volume turns positive within 6 months, confirming that sellers have been absorbed. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn RSI of 27 is deeply oversold and has historically resolved with a mean-reversion bounce, suggesting the near-term risk of further sharp declines may be limited. | ||
Available earnings history shows the fund has missed estimates in 3 of 4 recorded quarters with an average negative surprise of -19.8%, providing little evidence that management has reliably delivered on financial expectations. Earnings | At least 2 of the next 4 quarterly results come in above analyst estimates, improving the beat rate above 50%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe earnings history data is very stale, with the most recent recorded quarters dating from 2017, meaning this track record may not reflect current portfolio management capabilities. | ||
With a market capitalization of $0.92 billion, Tortoise Energy Infrastructure falls below the $1 billion minimum threshold required for the investable universe, limiting institutional participation and market liquidity.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Market cap grows above $1.0 billion through price appreciation or secondary offerings within 12 months.
CounterSmall closed-end funds can trade at persistent discounts regardless of quality, and the $1 billion cap floor itself may be an arbitrary constraint rather than a fundamental concern.
The fund posts a Rule of 40 score of 103 and operating margins of 78%, which rank among the best in its peer group and indicate the underlying energy infrastructure portfolio generates exceptional cash returns.
Tripped→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins remain above 60% and the Rule of 40 score stays above 80 over the next four quarters.
CounterFree cash flow is only 12% of net income, flagging a significant disconnect between reported earnings and actual cash generation that undermines the margin quality signal.
The momentum score of 3.6 falls below the minimum gate of 4.5, and on-balance volume is declining, indicating sellers are in control of price action despite the oversold RSI reading of 27.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score rises above 4.5 and on-balance volume turns positive within 6 months, confirming that sellers have been absorbed.
CounterAn RSI of 27 is deeply oversold and has historically resolved with a mean-reversion bounce, suggesting the near-term risk of further sharp declines may be limited.
Available earnings history shows the fund has missed estimates in 3 of 4 recorded quarters with an average negative surprise of -19.8%, providing little evidence that management has reliably delivered on financial expectations.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- At least 2 of the next 4 quarterly results come in above analyst estimates, improving the beat rate above 50%.
CounterThe earnings history data is very stale, with the most recent recorded quarters dating from 2017, meaning this track record may not reflect current portfolio management capabilities.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.2 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 0.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -0% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: -3 (fail)
Growth
1.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.8 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -3%
Momentum
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 9.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider buying — $60,000,000 (5.903% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 7.2 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
Catalyst
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.3 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 8.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.9, Technical at 8.8, and Insider at 8.5; the weakest are Growth at 1.8, Momentum at 2.2, and Catalyst at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Below Minimum Market Cap
Trip ifMarket cap falls below $0.85 billion, more than 8% below the current $0.92 billion, deepening the liquidity concern.
- P2Elite Rule Of 40 MarginsTripped
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 50%, more than 28 percentage points below the current 78% level.
- P3Negative Momentum Falling Volume
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 3.0 for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the downtrend is accelerating beyond the current 3.6 reading.
- P4Historical Earnings Misses
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise falls below -25% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, exceeding the historical negative surprise average.