Ternium is a deeply discounted steel producer at a forward P/E of 8.8x with strong volume accumulation above its 200-day moving average, but an earnings quality red flag at negative 98% free cash flow, a commodity cycle peak signal, and a put/call ratio of 5.27 constrain the investment case.
Thesis pillars
- Commodity Cycle Peak Risk→Stable
- Extreme Put Call Ratio→Stable
- Negative Free Cash Flow→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. (TX) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup
Basic Materials · Steel
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.43: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers slabs, heavy plates, hot and cold rolled... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.43: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 18, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 30d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=7.3x,ratio=0.53x. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A.
Latest news
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Underweight on Ternium, Raises Price Target to $43 — benzinga May 7, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Ternium Q1 EPS $1.09 Beats $0.82 Estimate, Sales $3.934B Miss $3.988B Estimate. — benzinga May 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Earnings Scheduled For May 5, 2026 — benzinga May 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Underweight on Ternium, Raises Price Target to $36 — benzinga Apr 16, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Ternium S.A. Cuts 2025 Dividend From $2.70/ADS To $2.20/ADS To Strengthen Balance Sheet Amid Global Uncertainty — benzinga Apr 15, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-07-07T11:31:44Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.43: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 18, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $40.06. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $46.21 (+8.9% upside). Prior stop was $40.06. Stop-loss: $40.06.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.53× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).
Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. trades at a P/E of 13.9 (forward 7.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover TX with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $53.
What does Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. do?Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region,...
Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers slabs, heavy plates, hot and cold rolled products, coated products, stamped steel parts for the automotive industry, roll-formed and tubular products, billets, bars, and other products, including sales of energy. Its Mining segment sells iron ore and pellets. It also provides medical and social; scrap; and engineering and other services. In addition, the company engages in the exploration, exploitation, and pelletizing of iron ore. Ternium S.A. was founded in 1961 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ternium S.A. is a subsidiary of Techint Holdings S.à r.l.