Value
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.4 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
TTMI · Why this verdict
Why TTM Technologies (TTMI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
TTM Technologies has achieved four consecutive earnings beats with 30% revenue growth and strong technical momentum including a golden cross, but the stock has already exceeded analyst targets by 14% and carries a free cash flow red flag at negative 28% of net income.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue has grown 30% year over year, the strongest growth reading in the batch, alongside four consecutive earnings beats averaging 9.3% above estimates, driven by demand in aerospace and defense electronics markets including radar systems. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year in the next reported annual period, confirming the growth trajectory is sustained. | →Stable |
| CounterConcentration risk from the U.S. Navy as a key customer means defense procurement cycles and program delays could sharply reduce future revenues if a single contract is paused. | ||
Free cash flow is negative 28% of net income, a red flag that indicates the company is consuming cash beyond what it earns, likely from heavy capital investment to support the growth ramp, and reported profits are not yet flowing through to the balance sheet. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive and represents at least 30% of net income within the next 2 annual periods. | →Stable |
| CounterNegative FCF during a revenue growth ramp in electronics manufacturing is common as companies invest in capacity; the 30% revenue growth justifies elevated capex if it yields durable revenue streams. | ||
The business carries high customer concentration with the U.S. Navy AN/APS-153 radar program identified as a key single-customer risk, meaning program cancellations or contract re-bids could materially reduce revenue without adequate diversification. Risk breakdown | Revenue from the top single customer falls below 20% of total revenue over the next 2 years, reducing concentration risk. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDefense electronics contracts tend to be multi-year and sticky; once a printed circuit board supplier is qualified for a program, switching costs make replacement unlikely mid-program. | ||
The stock at $206.66 is already 14% above analyst consensus targets, producing negative asymmetry with a stop loss at $192.19, meaning the reward-to-risk ratio is negative 0.13 and the near-term risk of a pullback to analyst fair value is high. Warnings | Analyst price targets are revised upward to at least $230, restoring a positive reward-to-risk ratio above 1.0. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterStrong earnings beats of 9.3% on average may prompt near-term analyst upgrades that close the gap between current price and new targets. | ||
Revenue has grown 30% year over year, the strongest growth reading in the batch, alongside four consecutive earnings beats averaging 9.3% above estimates, driven by demand in aerospace and defense electronics markets including radar systems.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year in the next reported annual period, confirming the growth trajectory is sustained.
CounterConcentration risk from the U.S. Navy as a key customer means defense procurement cycles and program delays could sharply reduce future revenues if a single contract is paused.
Free cash flow is negative 28% of net income, a red flag that indicates the company is consuming cash beyond what it earns, likely from heavy capital investment to support the growth ramp, and reported profits are not yet flowing through to the balance sheet.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive and represents at least 30% of net income within the next 2 annual periods.
CounterNegative FCF during a revenue growth ramp in electronics manufacturing is common as companies invest in capacity; the 30% revenue growth justifies elevated capex if it yields durable revenue streams.
The business carries high customer concentration with the U.S. Navy AN/APS-153 radar program identified as a key single-customer risk, meaning program cancellations or contract re-bids could materially reduce revenue without adequate diversification.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue from the top single customer falls below 20% of total revenue over the next 2 years, reducing concentration risk.
CounterDefense electronics contracts tend to be multi-year and sticky; once a printed circuit board supplier is qualified for a program, switching costs make replacement unlikely mid-program.
The stock at $206.66 is already 14% above analyst consensus targets, producing negative asymmetry with a stop loss at $192.19, meaning the reward-to-risk ratio is negative 0.13 and the near-term risk of a pullback to analyst fair value is high.
Tripped↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward to at least $230, restoring a positive reward-to-risk ratio above 1.0.
CounterStrong earnings beats of 9.3% on average may prompt near-term analyst upgrades that close the gap between current price and new targets.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.2 |
| Op margin | 4.4 |
| Net margin | 3.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -8% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 37% YoY
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+8.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 86%
Insider
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.1 |
| holder change | 3.7 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $14,292,837 (0.117% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.9 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 0.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.5 |
| beta | 2.8 |
| debt equity | 7.6 |
- ▸High IV: 77%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.1 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:4.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:62d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
4.11
Upside
+57.8%
Downside
14.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -48% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output fired on the hard insider floor: insider score of 3.0 sits below the 3.0 threshold (heavy insider selling), which triggers SELL regardless of other dimensions. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.11 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 6.8, and Value at 6.7; the weakest are Insider at 3.0, Momentum at 3.6, and Quality at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.11 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue Growth Momentum
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year over year in any reported period over the next 12 months.
- P2Negative Free Cash Flow Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow remains negative for more than 3 consecutive quarters.
- P3Target Exceeded Negative AsymmetryTripped
Trip ifStock price drops below $185, more than 10% below the current $206.66, on downward analyst target revisions.
- P4Customer Concentration Risk
Trip ifA single customer represents more than 30% of total revenue in any reported period, increasing concentration above current levels.