Value
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.6 |
| P/S | 6.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.6 |
| PEG | 8.1 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.81
- ▸Attractively valued
TRST · Why this verdict
Why TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
TrustCo Bank pairs an attractive valuation and strong margins with a beat-streak catalyst ahead and recent insider buying, though the stock's proximity to its 52-week high and exhausted upside estimate limit the near-term reward.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
TrustCo trades at an attractive valuation with a forward P/E of 19.0x and a PEG ratio of 0.89, alongside strong margins of 33% noted in the quality data. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay below 1.0 and margins should hold near 30% or higher over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank margins are sensitive to net interest margin compression if rates move unfavorably, which could erode the current 33% margin level. | ||
The stock carries a catalyst edge tied to an earnings report in 16 days, backed by a 3-of-4 beat streak in the trailing four quarters. Edge rationale | The beat streak should extend to 4 of 5 quarters at the next report on 2026-07-20. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one miss in the trailing four quarters came in at -21.21% surprise, a sizable deviation that shows the streak can break significantly rather than marginally. | ||
Insiders have been net buyers, adding 305 shares across 3 separate purchases in the past 90 days, and the engine classifies the insider signal as bullish. Insider | Insider buying should continue or at minimum not reverse into net selling over the next few months. | →Stable |
| Counter305 shares is a modest absolute amount for a bank of this size, so the buying may be too small to serve as a strong conviction signal. | ||
The stock is near its 52-week high, just 3.8% away, and the engine's asymmetry warning shows upside already exhausted at 0.0%. Bear case | A new upside estimate above 5% should emerge, or the stock should break out to new highs, over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRange-bound bank stocks near 52-week highs can still work as steady dividend and buyback compounding vehicles even without near-term price upside. | ||
TrustCo trades at an attractive valuation with a forward P/E of 19.0x and a PEG ratio of 0.89, alongside strong margins of 33% noted in the quality data.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay below 1.0 and margins should hold near 30% or higher over the next 12 months.
CounterRegional bank margins are sensitive to net interest margin compression if rates move unfavorably, which could erode the current 33% margin level.
The stock carries a catalyst edge tied to an earnings report in 16 days, backed by a 3-of-4 beat streak in the trailing four quarters.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to 4 of 5 quarters at the next report on 2026-07-20.
CounterThe one miss in the trailing four quarters came in at -21.21% surprise, a sizable deviation that shows the streak can break significantly rather than marginally.
Insiders have been net buyers, adding 305 shares across 3 separate purchases in the past 90 days, and the engine classifies the insider signal as bullish.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider buying should continue or at minimum not reverse into net selling over the next few months.
Counter305 shares is a modest absolute amount for a bank of this size, so the buying may be too small to serve as a strong conviction signal.
The stock is near its 52-week high, just 3.8% away, and the engine's asymmetry warning shows upside already exhausted at 0.0%.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- A new upside estimate above 5% should emerge, or the stock should break out to new highs, over the next 12 months.
CounterRange-bound bank stocks near 52-week highs can still work as steady dividend and buyback compounding vehicles even without near-term price upside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 6.8 |
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.4 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.6 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $15,307 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 5.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.4 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.6 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:89d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
8.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.3; weakest: Peer rank at 4.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.3, Growth at 6.0, and Catalyst at 5.8; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.0, Insider at 4.8, and Technical at 4.9. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Strong Margins
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.5 or margins compress below 25%.
- P2Earnings Catalyst Beat Streak
Trip ifCompany posts a miss with surprise below 0% at the 2026-07-20 report, breaking the beat streak.
- P3Insider Buying Bullish Signal
Trip ifInsider signal flips to net selling with more than 500 shares sold over the next 90 days.
- P4Upside Exhausted Near 52 Week High
Trip ifUpside estimate rises above 5% or the stock breaks to a new 52-week high.