Value
8.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
- ▸Attractively valued
TRLV · Why this verdict
Why Trulieve Cannabis Corp. Subordi (TRLV) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
TRLV cannot be traded this run due to a missing price feed, and beneath that data gap sits a mixed picture: a consistent earnings beat streak and strong Piotroski quality offset by margin-compression value-trap signals and declining revenue.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The data flags value-trap signals, including significant operating margin compression to roughly -39.8% and negative free cash flow, raising doubts about underlying profitability. Bear case | Operating margin should improve meaningfully off its current deeply negative level over the next several quarters if the compression is temporary. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterMargin compression in the cannabis sector is frequently driven by federal tax treatment under IRS code 280E rather than a genuine deterioration in core unit economics. | ||
Despite the margin concerns, the company is free-cash-flow positive with moderate margins and posts a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should remain at or near its current 8/9 level and free cash flow should stay positive over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong Piotroski score can coexist with a structurally challenged margin profile if it is being driven by balance-sheet and liquidity components rather than genuine profitability improvement. | ||
Revenue is declining modestly, down about 4%, adding to the fundamental concerns alongside the margin-compression flags. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive, rising above 0% year-over-year, over the next several quarters if demand is stabilizing. | →Stable |
| CounterA modest revenue decline in a maturing state-legal cannabis market can reflect price compression from increased competition rather than a genuine loss of market share or demand. | ||
The current run has no valid price for this stock, with the upstream data source returning a null value, preventing any entry, target, or stop calculation. Warnings | A valid price should be returned by the upstream data source on the next run, restoring the ability to compute a trade setup. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA single-run price outage is typically a transient data-feed issue rather than a signal about the underlying business or its tradability. | ||
The company has beaten earnings in both of its last two reported quarters with a strongly positive average surprise, showing recent execution strength. Earnings | The beat rate should remain at or above 50% over the next several reporting quarters if execution momentum continues. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeats against depressed estimates for a company with declining revenue and compressed margins may reflect low-quality earnings management rather than genuine operational improvement. | ||
The data flags value-trap signals, including significant operating margin compression to roughly -39.8% and negative free cash flow, raising doubts about underlying profitability.
Tripped↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Operating margin should improve meaningfully off its current deeply negative level over the next several quarters if the compression is temporary.
CounterMargin compression in the cannabis sector is frequently driven by federal tax treatment under IRS code 280E rather than a genuine deterioration in core unit economics.
Despite the margin concerns, the company is free-cash-flow positive with moderate margins and posts a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should remain at or near its current 8/9 level and free cash flow should stay positive over the next several quarters.
CounterA strong Piotroski score can coexist with a structurally challenged margin profile if it is being driven by balance-sheet and liquidity components rather than genuine profitability improvement.
Revenue is declining modestly, down about 4%, adding to the fundamental concerns alongside the margin-compression flags.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive, rising above 0% year-over-year, over the next several quarters if demand is stabilizing.
CounterA modest revenue decline in a maturing state-legal cannabis market can reflect price compression from increased competition rather than a genuine loss of market share or demand.
The current run has no valid price for this stock, with the upstream data source returning a null value, preventing any entry, target, or stop calculation.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- A valid price should be returned by the upstream data source on the next run, restoring the ability to compute a trade setup.
CounterA single-run price outage is typically a transient data-feed issue rather than a signal about the underlying business or its tradability.
The company has beaten earnings in both of its last two reported quarters with a strongly positive average surprise, showing recent execution strength.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat rate should remain at or above 50% over the next several reporting quarters if execution momentum continues.
CounterBeats against depressed estimates for a company with declining revenue and compressed margins may reflect low-quality earnings management rather than genuine operational improvement.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.2 |
| Gross margin | 7.9 |
| Op margin | 5.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 20%, FCF yield 11.7%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -10%
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 5.5 |
| Volume | 7.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=4)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 64%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 0.5 |
| growth rank | 0.5 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.6 |
| support resistance | 3.0 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.0 |
| debt equity | 6.5 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High IV: 114%
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.51
Upside
+42.5%
Downside
12.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($2.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.80>1.3, MCap $2.0B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Value at 8.5 (strongest), but EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Sentiment at 8.1, and Catalyst at 7.6; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.8, Technical at 3.6, and Quality at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.51 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Data Issue No Price Available
Trip ifValid price data becomes available for more than 2 consecutive trading days, resolving the current data outage.
- P2Value Trap Margin CompressionTripped
Trip ifOperating margin rises above -10% from the current -39.8%, resolving the value-trap margin-compression signal.
- P3Strong Piotroski Cash Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 out of 9 from the current 8/9, or FCF margin falls below 5% from the current 17%.
- P4Declining Revenue Trend
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 0% YoY from the current -4% decline, turning positive.
- P5Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifQuarterly EPS beat rate falls below 50% over the next 4 quarters, ending the current 2-of-2 beat streak.