Value
7.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.16
- ▸Attractively valued
TLRY · Why this verdict
Why Tilray Brands (TLRY) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Tilray is down 89% from its high with 23% revenue growth and 96.8% upside to the analyst target, but it is in a confirmed downtrend, burns cash and sits below the $400M market-cap floor.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The analyst target of $4.98 is 96.8% above the $2.53 price, with 11.4% downside to the stop for a reward-to-risk of 8.49. Analyst target | Price should move toward $4.98 if earnings continue to improve. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, and after an 89% drawdown the target may be stale relative to deteriorating fundamentals. | ||
Momentum is 2.5/10 with RSI at 12, a death cross, price below a 200-day average falling 14.5% over 30 days and falling on-balance volume. Momentum breakdown | RSI should recover above 30 and price should hold above the $2.41 stop level. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe downtrend is confirmed and capitulation can persist, with an 11.4% fall to the stop level possible quickly. | ||
Growth is strong at 23% YoY with earnings growth scoring 10/10, and the forward P/E is 17.8x with a PEG of 0.16. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is 0.67 and gross margin scores only 1.9/10, so growth has not translated into profit. | ||
Free cash flow is -2% of revenue, quality is 2.2/10 and net, operating and return metrics all score 0. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should turn positive and quality should rise above 4.0. | →Stable |
| CounterThe cash burn is small at -2% of revenue and the Piotroski F-Score of 5.6 indicates fundamentals are not collapsing. | ||
The latest report beat by 85.7% (-$0.02 versus -$0.14), but the two reports before it missed by over 70%, and the $374M market cap is below the $400M minimum. Last 4 quarters | EPS should come in at or above the estimate in the next report and market cap should climb above $400M. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeating a deeply negative estimate does not show profit, and earnings misses of 70% or more suggest unreliable forecasts. | ||
The analyst target of $4.98 is 96.8% above the $2.53 price, with 11.4% downside to the stop for a reward-to-risk of 8.49.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price should move toward $4.98 if earnings continue to improve.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, and after an 89% drawdown the target may be stale relative to deteriorating fundamentals.
Momentum is 2.5/10 with RSI at 12, a death cross, price below a 200-day average falling 14.5% over 30 days and falling on-balance volume.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should recover above 30 and price should hold above the $2.41 stop level.
CounterThe downtrend is confirmed and capitulation can persist, with an 11.4% fall to the stop level possible quickly.
Growth is strong at 23% YoY with earnings growth scoring 10/10, and the forward P/E is 17.8x with a PEG of 0.16.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth confidence is 0.67 and gross margin scores only 1.9/10, so growth has not translated into profit.
Free cash flow is -2% of revenue, quality is 2.2/10 and net, operating and return metrics all score 0.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should turn positive and quality should rise above 4.0.
CounterThe cash burn is small at -2% of revenue and the Piotroski F-Score of 5.6 indicates fundamentals are not collapsing.
The latest report beat by 85.7% (-$0.02 versus -$0.14), but the two reports before it missed by over 70%, and the $374M market cap is below the $400M minimum.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS should come in at or above the estimate in the next report and market cap should climb above $400M.
CounterBeating a deeply negative estimate does not show profit, and earnings misses of 70% or more suggest unreliable forecasts.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -2% of revenue
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
9.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 23% YoY
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.7 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 15, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -14.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 10.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 124%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $57,275 (0.015% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.0 |
| quality rank | 2.0 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.4 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.6 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 9.5 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 3.6 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 92%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $374M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:8.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:65d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
8.40
Upside
+95.2%
Downside
11.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 15, MACD bearish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -89% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.5<4.5 outcome against Growth at 9.1 and asymmetric R:R of 8.40.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.1, Sentiment at 8.7, and Insider at 7.5; the weakest are Quality at 2.2, Momentum at 2.5, and Catalyst at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 8.40 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Target Large Upside
Trip ifThe analyst target is cut below $3.50 from the current $4.98.
- P2Confirmed Downtrend Capitulation
Trip ifPrice drops to below the $2.41 stop level.
- P3Revenue And Earnings Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Cash Burn Weak Quality
Trip ifFCF falls below -10% of revenue.
- P5Inconsistent Earnings Small Cap
Trip ifMarket cap stays below $300M for 2 consecutive quarters.