Value
9.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
TLRY · Why this verdict
Why Tilray Brands (TLRY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Tilray Brands shows an extreme risk/reward skew with 117% analyst upside and a passed asymmetry gate, but quality below the engine's floor, a confirmed downtrend with a death-cross block, and high short interest keep the engine's recommendation at exit.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bear case flags quality at 2.3, below the 4.0 floor, part of three value-trap signals including margin compression, material insider selling, and negative free cash flow. Bear case | The quality score should climb above 4.0 and the value-trap signal count should drop from 3 out of 5 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe current ratio of 9.4 shows very substantial near-term liquidity, giving ample runway to absorb continued cash burn. | ||
Sentiment notes cite 117% analyst upside, consistent with the engine's asymmetry gate passing at a ratio of 8.52, among the highest in the bundle, against a 1.5 threshold. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst upside should stay elevated and the asymmetry ratio should hold well above the 1.5 gate threshold over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLight analyst coverage is explicitly flagged as dampening the signal, and the position-size recommendation is still avoid given the institutional-constrained edge type for this $0.6B market cap. | ||
The momentum gate failed at 3.6 against the 4.5 threshold, with momentum notes describing a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average and a hard-blocking death-cross technical signal. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum should recover above the 4.5 gate threshold and price should reclaim its 200-day moving average as the downtrend reverses over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe drawdown of 80% from the 52-week high, cited in the suitability rationale, means much of the potential downside from this downtrend may already have played out. | ||
Risk notes describe short interest of 15% as justified, alongside high implied volatility of 93%, both consistent with the bearish technical picture. Risk breakdown | Short interest should decline meaningfully from 15% and implied volatility should compress toward a more typical range over the next 12 months if bearish positioning is unwinding. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe put/call ratio of 0.571 is skewed toward calls rather than puts, suggesting options positioning does not reflect heavy bearish hedging despite the justified short interest. | ||
The bear case flags quality at 2.3, below the 4.0 floor, part of three value-trap signals including margin compression, material insider selling, and negative free cash flow.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The quality score should climb above 4.0 and the value-trap signal count should drop from 3 out of 5 over the next 12 months.
CounterThe current ratio of 9.4 shows very substantial near-term liquidity, giving ample runway to absorb continued cash burn.
Sentiment notes cite 117% analyst upside, consistent with the engine's asymmetry gate passing at a ratio of 8.52, among the highest in the bundle, against a 1.5 threshold.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst upside should stay elevated and the asymmetry ratio should hold well above the 1.5 gate threshold over the next 12 months.
CounterLight analyst coverage is explicitly flagged as dampening the signal, and the position-size recommendation is still avoid given the institutional-constrained edge type for this $0.6B market cap.
The momentum gate failed at 3.6 against the 4.5 threshold, with momentum notes describing a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average and a hard-blocking death-cross technical signal.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover above the 4.5 gate threshold and price should reclaim its 200-day moving average as the downtrend reverses over the next 12 months.
CounterThe drawdown of 80% from the 52-week high, cited in the suitability rationale, means much of the potential downside from this downtrend may already have played out.
Risk notes describe short interest of 15% as justified, alongside high implied volatility of 93%, both consistent with the bearish technical picture.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline meaningfully from 15% and implied volatility should compress toward a more typical range over the next 12 months if bearish positioning is unwinding.
CounterThe put/call ratio of 0.571 is skewed toward calls rather than puts, suggesting options positioning does not reflect heavy bearish hedging despite the justified short interest.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.7 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -3% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -8%
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.8 |
| MACD | 7.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -18.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 67%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $58,150 (0.009% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.7 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 1.0 |
Technical
1.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.0 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 3.6 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 15%
- ▸High IV: 86%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:55d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.4>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
3.01
Upside
+45.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -80% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Value at 9.6 and asymmetric R:R of 3.01.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.6, Insider at 7.5, and Sentiment at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 1.2, Quality at 1.9, and Catalyst at 2.5. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.01 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Asymmetry Large Analyst Upside
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 1.5 from the current 8.52.
- P2Quality Below Floor Value Trap
Trip ifQuality score rises above 3.5 from the current 2.3.
- P3Failed Momentum Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 3.6.
- P4High Short Interest Elevated Iv
Trip ifShort interest falls below 8% of float from the current 15%.