Value
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
TITN · Why this verdict
Why Titan Machinery (TITN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score3.7/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is 1.2/10, below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat, a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and margins and returns scoring 0. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score should rise above 4 and margins should turn positive. | →Stable |
| CounterDistribution businesses run on thin margins by design, so low margin scores may overstate the weakness. | ||
The price of $23.86 sits 10.0% above the $21.46 analyst target (upside of -10.0%), so there is no remaining upside and 10.4% downside to the stop. Bear case | Analyst targets should rise toward the price, or the price should consolidate, over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMomentum is strong with a golden cross and rising on-balance volume, so analysts may be lagging a re-rating. | ||
Revenue is declining 9% YoY, scoring 0.2/10 on revenue growth and last among peers on growth rank. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEquipment distribution is cyclical, and a trough in farm equipment demand could mark the bottom of the decline. | ||
EPS missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including -$1.43 versus -$1.00 expected in March 2026 (a 43% miss), with losses in every quarter shown. Last 4 quarters | Quarterly loss per share should narrow toward breakeven in the report due 2026-11-24. | →Stable |
| CounterThe loss narrowed from -$1.43 to -$0.40 over the last three reports, so the trend is improving despite misses. | ||
The setup is a breakout: golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI 57, rising on-balance volume and institutions accumulating. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above the $22.19 stop level and keep rising. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe put/call ratio is elevated at 1.83 and implied volatility is 110%, signaling that options traders expect a reversal. | ||
Quality is 1.2/10, below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat, a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and margins and returns scoring 0.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score should rise above 4 and margins should turn positive.
CounterDistribution businesses run on thin margins by design, so low margin scores may overstate the weakness.
The price of $23.86 sits 10.0% above the $21.46 analyst target (upside of -10.0%), so there is no remaining upside and 10.4% downside to the stop.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should rise toward the price, or the price should consolidate, over the next 12 months.
CounterMomentum is strong with a golden cross and rising on-balance volume, so analysts may be lagging a re-rating.
Revenue is declining 9% YoY, scoring 0.2/10 on revenue growth and last among peers on growth rank.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive within 12 months.
CounterEquipment distribution is cyclical, and a trough in farm equipment demand could mark the bottom of the decline.
EPS missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including -$1.43 versus -$1.00 expected in March 2026 (a 43% miss), with losses in every quarter shown.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly loss per share should narrow toward breakeven in the report due 2026-11-24.
CounterThe loss narrowed from -$1.43 to -$0.40 over the last three reports, so the trend is improving despite misses.
The setup is a breakout: golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI 57, rising on-balance volume and institutions accumulating.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above the $22.19 stop level and keep rising.
CounterThe put/call ratio is elevated at 1.83 and implied volatility is 110%, signaling that options traders expect a reversal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.2 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -9%
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.9 |
| quality rank | 0.8 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 8.7 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 4.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.3 |
| debt equity | 3.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 8.52
- ▸High IV: 73%
- ▸Above max pain $12
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:19d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.09
Upside
+1.0%
Downside
11.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.43>1.3, MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.9<4.5 outcome against Technical at 8.2 and asymmetric R:R of 0.09.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.2, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 5.8; the weakest are Growth at 0.2, Quality at 1.2, and Peer rank at 2.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice rises to more than 20% above the $21.46 analyst target without a target increase.
- P2Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue decline exceeds 15% YoY.
- P3Weak Quality No Moat
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score stays below 3 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% in the 2026-11-24 report.
- P5Breakout Momentum AccumulationTripped
Trip ifPrice drops to below the $22.19 stop level.