Value
6.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
TFX · Why this verdict
Why Teleflex (TFX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Teleflex generated 32% year-over-year revenue growth, earning the top growth rank of 9.2 out of 10 in its medical instruments peer group, indicating strong underlying demand for its product portfolio despite the challenging momentum picture. Growth | Revenue growth sustaining above 15% year-over-year in the next annual report would confirm demand momentum is durable rather than a one-year product-launch or acquisition-driven spike. | →Stable |
| CounterMedical device revenue growth can inflate temporarily during new product launches or post-acquisition consolidation periods, and the quality score of 4.0 — barely above floor — suggests profitability has not scaled with the revenue expansion. | ||
Teleflex beat earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with positive surprises of 14.5%, 8.6%, and 10.8%, but the February 2026 quarter saw a -48.5% miss, which may reflect a restructuring charge or one-time write-down that has since been absorbed. Earnings | Positive earnings surprise above 8% in each of the next 2 reported quarters would confirm the February miss was a non-recurring event rather than the start of a downward earnings revision cycle. | →Stable |
| CounterA -48.5% EPS miss is extremely large, and if it reflects permanent impairment to the earnings base rather than a one-time charge, the 3-quarter beat streak preceding it was masking underlying fundamental deterioration. | ||
Teleflex has a momentum score of only 2.8 out of 10 with falling on-balance-volume and a failed momentum gate, indicating active institutional selling of the stock even as the business reports growth — a divergence that typically precedes further price weakness. Momentum | On-balance-volume reversing to a rising trend over the next 30 trading days would signal that selling pressure has exhausted and buyers are returning at current price levels. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice weakness in a medtech name with strong revenue growth can represent a sentiment reset rather than a fundamental concern, and below-consensus positioning often sets up a strong re-rating when the next beat is delivered. | ||
With the stock at $130.09 and take-profit at $133.86, upside is only 2.9% while downside to the stop loss is 5.9%, giving a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.49x and a negative asymmetry flag — meaning the current price represents a poor entry even if the business fundamentals improve. Targets | Price pulling back below $115, more than 12% below current $130.09, would restore a risk-reward ratio greater than 1.5x against the same analyst-derived price targets. | →Stable |
| CounterIf Teleflex delivers another strong earnings beat in July 2026, the immediate re-rating could more than offset the current tight upside, and holding cash while waiting for a 12% pullback could mean missing a catalyst-driven move. | ||
Teleflex generated 32% year-over-year revenue growth, earning the top growth rank of 9.2 out of 10 in its medical instruments peer group, indicating strong underlying demand for its product portfolio despite the challenging momentum picture.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustaining above 15% year-over-year in the next annual report would confirm demand momentum is durable rather than a one-year product-launch or acquisition-driven spike.
CounterMedical device revenue growth can inflate temporarily during new product launches or post-acquisition consolidation periods, and the quality score of 4.0 — barely above floor — suggests profitability has not scaled with the revenue expansion.
Teleflex beat earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with positive surprises of 14.5%, 8.6%, and 10.8%, but the February 2026 quarter saw a -48.5% miss, which may reflect a restructuring charge or one-time write-down that has since been absorbed.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Positive earnings surprise above 8% in each of the next 2 reported quarters would confirm the February miss was a non-recurring event rather than the start of a downward earnings revision cycle.
CounterA -48.5% EPS miss is extremely large, and if it reflects permanent impairment to the earnings base rather than a one-time charge, the 3-quarter beat streak preceding it was masking underlying fundamental deterioration.
Teleflex has a momentum score of only 2.8 out of 10 with falling on-balance-volume and a failed momentum gate, indicating active institutional selling of the stock even as the business reports growth — a divergence that typically precedes further price weakness.
→StableMomentum
- Expectation
- On-balance-volume reversing to a rising trend over the next 30 trading days would signal that selling pressure has exhausted and buyers are returning at current price levels.
CounterPrice weakness in a medtech name with strong revenue growth can represent a sentiment reset rather than a fundamental concern, and below-consensus positioning often sets up a strong re-rating when the next beat is delivered.
With the stock at $130.09 and take-profit at $133.86, upside is only 2.9% while downside to the stop loss is 5.9%, giving a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.49x and a negative asymmetry flag — meaning the current price represents a poor entry even if the business fundamentals improve.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price pulling back below $115, more than 12% below current $130.09, would restore a risk-reward ratio greater than 1.5x against the same analyst-derived price targets.
CounterIf Teleflex delivers another strong earnings beat in July 2026, the immediate re-rating could more than offset the current tight upside, and holding cash while waiting for a 12% pullback could mean missing a catalyst-driven move.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Teleflex delivered 32% revenue growth year-over-year and has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but negative price momentum with a momentum score of only 2.8 out of 10 and falling on-balance-volume signal active distribution, while the stock already sits near its analyst-implied ceiling with negative upside asymmetry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 7.1 |
| Op margin | 3.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -0% of revenue
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 32% YoY
Momentum
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.7 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 2.0 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.3 |
| support resistance | 1.7 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.0 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 2.0 |
| implied vol | 3.7 |
| beta | 8.1 |
| debt equity | 5.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.71
Catalyst
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.7 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 102.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.54
Upside
-5.3%
Downside
9.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 27d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:8.1>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Peer rank at 3.9. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Momentum at 8.1, and Value at 6.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.9, Quality at 4.0, and Technical at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.54 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue Growth Leadership
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year in the next annual report, indicating the 32% surge was a peak and the business is returning to modest single-digit growth.
- P2Earnings Beat With One Large Miss
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -20% in any single reported quarter, indicating a repeat of the February 2026 large miss and suggesting the earnings base is structurally impaired.
- P3Negative Price Momentum Distribution
Trip ifOn-balance-volume declines by more than 15% from its current level over any 30-trading-day window, confirming accelerating institutional distribution.
- P4Negative Entry Asymmetry
Trip ifStock price rises above $145, exceeding the analyst target by more than 8%, without a corresponding analyst price-target upgrade to justify the premium.