Value
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.1 |
| PEG | 7.3 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 34.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.95
TECH · Why this verdict
Why Bio-Techne (TECH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The Protein Sciences segment generates 72% of Bio-Techne's revenue, creating a single-segment concentration that amplifies exposure to the academic, biopharmaceutical, and industrial life sciences spending cycles — a risk factor noted in the 10-K annual filing. Bear case | Protein Sciences revenue share falls below 65% within 12 months as other segments grow faster, or the segment itself grows faster than 10% per year. | →Stable |
| CounterDominant market position in high-purity proteins and recombinant cytokines is a scientific moat that provides pricing power; the segment concentration reflects competitive strength in a niche where Bio-Techne is the reference standard for many research applications. | ||
Bio-Techne converts 274% of net income into free cash flow, indicating that reported earnings substantially understate the company's cash generation capability — a quality signal reflecting strong working capital management and asset-light characteristics in the life sciences reagents business. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion stays above 200% of net income over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow far exceeding net income can reflect deferred investment that will eventually require capital expenditure catch-up; a 72% concentration in the Protein Sciences segment means that a demand slowdown in that segment immediately impairs the cash generation story. | ||
Revenue declined 2% year-over-year, suggesting the core business is contracting modestly even as cash flow remains strong — a divergence that needs to reverse for the business to sustain its quality metrics over the medium term. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive on a year-over-year basis in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterBiotech research tools companies often show lumpy revenue due to large contract timing; the free cash flow strength suggests the decline is not yet impacting underlying profitability and may represent a temporary pause in a durable growth business. | ||
The stock at $56.17 is trading above the take-profit resistance level of $55.37, meaning the current price already exceeds the near-term technical target — with negative 1.4% upside and an asymmetry ratio of negative 0.3, creating an unfavorable risk-to-reward profile for new buyers. Targets | Price pulls back to at least $52, more than 7% below the current $56.17, to restore a favorable entry with risk-to-reward ratio above 1.5. | →Stable |
| CounterResistance levels are not hard ceilings; a stock with strong fundamentals and consistent free cash flow can trade above technical resistance for extended periods if analyst targets are revised upward after positive earnings delivery. | ||
The Protein Sciences segment generates 72% of Bio-Techne's revenue, creating a single-segment concentration that amplifies exposure to the academic, biopharmaceutical, and industrial life sciences spending cycles — a risk factor noted in the 10-K annual filing.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Protein Sciences revenue share falls below 65% within 12 months as other segments grow faster, or the segment itself grows faster than 10% per year.
CounterDominant market position in high-purity proteins and recombinant cytokines is a scientific moat that provides pricing power; the segment concentration reflects competitive strength in a niche where Bio-Techne is the reference standard for many research applications.
Bio-Techne converts 274% of net income into free cash flow, indicating that reported earnings substantially understate the company's cash generation capability — a quality signal reflecting strong working capital management and asset-light characteristics in the life sciences reagents business.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion stays above 200% of net income over the next four reported quarters.
CounterFree cash flow far exceeding net income can reflect deferred investment that will eventually require capital expenditure catch-up; a 72% concentration in the Protein Sciences segment means that a demand slowdown in that segment immediately impairs the cash generation story.
Revenue declined 2% year-over-year, suggesting the core business is contracting modestly even as cash flow remains strong — a divergence that needs to reverse for the business to sustain its quality metrics over the medium term.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive on a year-over-year basis in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterBiotech research tools companies often show lumpy revenue due to large contract timing; the free cash flow strength suggests the decline is not yet impacting underlying profitability and may represent a temporary pause in a durable growth business.
The stock at $56.17 is trading above the take-profit resistance level of $55.37, meaning the current price already exceeds the near-term technical target — with negative 1.4% upside and an asymmetry ratio of negative 0.3, creating an unfavorable risk-to-reward profile for new buyers.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price pulls back to at least $52, more than 7% below the current $56.17, to restore a favorable entry with risk-to-reward ratio above 1.5.
CounterResistance levels are not hard ceilings; a stock with strong fundamentals and consistent free cash flow can trade above technical resistance for extended periods if analyst targets are revised upward after positive earnings delivery.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bio-Techne earns exceptional free cash flow at 274% of net income, holds a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9, and maintains high gross margins — but the Protein Sciences segment represents 72% of revenue, top-line revenue has declined 2% year-over-year, and the stock is trading above its resistance take-profit target with negative asymmetry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.8 |
| ROA | 5.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.3 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 4.5 |
| Current ratio | 8.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 274% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 23 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 84)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 2.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.50 (n=3)
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $320,386 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 7.2 |
| growth rank | 3.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.4 |
| days to cover | 4.5 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 45.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.01
Upside
-15.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 6.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.01 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 6.7, Growth at 6.0, and Catalyst at 6.0; the weakest are Value at 3.2, Peer rank at 3.5, and Technical at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.01 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 150% of net income, more than 124 percentage points below the current 274% level.
- P2Protein Sciences Segment Concentration
Trip ifProtein Sciences segment revenue declines by more than 10% year-over-year in any reported quarter.
- P3Revenue Decline With Strong Cash Flow
Trip ifRevenue growth remains below -5% year-over-year for more than 3 consecutive reported quarters.
- P4Price Above Resistance Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifStock price rises above $62, more than 10% above the current $56.17, without a corresponding analyst target increase above $67.