Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.30
- ▸Attractively valued
TDAY · Why this verdict
Why USA TODAY Co. (TDAY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
USA TODAY Co has strung together earnings beats and converts earnings to cash efficiently, but declining revenue, high leverage, and a valuation that has already reached its target temper the case for anything beyond holding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
USA TODAY Co has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, most recently posting a 225.12% surprise. Bull case | The beat streak should continue at the next report on 2026-08-06 with a positive surprise percentage. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOne of the four quarters missed by -124.48% surprise, showing the streak isn't consistent and could reverse. | ||
Revenue is declining at -4% year over year even though the company converts earnings to cash efficiently at 355% of FCF-to-net-income. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive, rising above 0%, over the next few quarters for the cash-quality strength to translate into durable value. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStrong cash conversion could allow the company to sustain buybacks or dividends even through a period of revenue decline, decoupling shareholder returns from the top-line trend. | ||
The stock carries a leverage penalty tied to a debt-to-equity ratio of 8.0 and is flagged for below-average business quality with no competitive moat. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should decline from 8.0 or the quality score should rise above the engine's 4.0 floor over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh leverage can amplify equity returns during periods of stable cash flow, so the leverage itself isn't necessarily destructive if debt service is covered. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst target with -16.2% implied upside, and the engine's asymmetry gate failed at -1.1, reflecting an unfavorable risk/reward setup. Warnings | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive, rising above 1.5, or a higher analyst target should be issued before the setup becomes attractive again. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock is also near its 52-week high with strong momentum, including an RSI of 77 and rising volume accumulation, which could continue in the near term regardless of the negative asymmetry signal. | ||
USA TODAY Co has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, most recently posting a 225.12% surprise.
↓DeterioratingBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue at the next report on 2026-08-06 with a positive surprise percentage.
CounterOne of the four quarters missed by -124.48% surprise, showing the streak isn't consistent and could reverse.
Revenue is declining at -4% year over year even though the company converts earnings to cash efficiently at 355% of FCF-to-net-income.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive, rising above 0%, over the next few quarters for the cash-quality strength to translate into durable value.
CounterStrong cash conversion could allow the company to sustain buybacks or dividends even through a period of revenue decline, decoupling shareholder returns from the top-line trend.
The stock carries a leverage penalty tied to a debt-to-equity ratio of 8.0 and is flagged for below-average business quality with no competitive moat.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should decline from 8.0 or the quality score should rise above the engine's 4.0 floor over the next 12 months.
CounterHigh leverage can amplify equity returns during periods of stable cash flow, so the leverage itself isn't necessarily destructive if debt service is covered.
The stock has already reached its analyst target with -16.2% implied upside, and the engine's asymmetry gate failed at -1.1, reflecting an unfavorable risk/reward setup.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive, rising above 1.5, or a higher analyst target should be issued before the setup becomes attractive again.
CounterThe stock is also near its 52-week high with strong momentum, including an RSI of 77 and rising volume accumulation, which could continue in the near term regardless of the negative asymmetry signal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 3.9 |
| Op margin | 1.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.2 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -8%
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.3 |
| MACD | 1.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 9.7 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 32) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.2 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.2 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.1 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.4 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.30
- ▸High IV: 118%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:87d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.44
Upside
+6.1%
Downside
13.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.1B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.39>1.3, MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.4<1.5@spot outcome against Value at 7.8 and asymmetric R:R of 0.44.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Technical at 7.7, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 1.9, Peer rank at 2.1, and Quality at 2.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.44 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifBeat streak ends with average surprise falling below 0% over 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Declining Revenue Despite Cash Quality
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 3% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Leverage Penalty And Quality Concerns
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 5.0 or quality score rises above 4.0.
- P4Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.5 or a new analyst target lifts upside above 15%.