Value
10.0/10data confidence 20%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
TBLD · Why this verdict
Why Thornburg Income Builder Opport (TBLD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Thornburg Income Builder Opportunities pairs a confirmed technical breakout and an attractive relative valuation with a quality score below the engine's floor and a market cap too small for institutional reach, leaving the setup unactionable despite a large reported distribution.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Thornburg Income Builder Opportunities screens as attractively valued against peers, ranking 9.1 out of 10 on the value peer-rank component with a P/E of 10.0. Peer-rank breakdown | For this valuation edge to persist, the value peer-rank component should stay at or above 7.0 and the P/E should remain below 14 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterValue-dimension confidence is only 0.2, the lowest of any scoring category, so the attractive relative valuation rests on thin supporting data. | ||
The engine identifies an institutional-constraint edge in Thornburg Income Builder Opportunities, citing its $0.7B market capitalization as below the scale most institutional investors can access. Edge rationale | For this edge to remain intact, market capitalization should stay below $5B over the next 12 months, keeping the fund under-followed by large institutions. | →Stable |
| CounterDespite this theoretical constraint-driven edge, the position-size recommendation is still AVOID and the asymmetry ratio sits at 0.0, so the engine is not yet translating the constraint into an actionable opportunity. | ||
Thornburg Income Builder Opportunities has a quality score of just 0.9, below the engine's 4.0 minimum floor, triggering an explicit exit-position action note. Engine summary | For this floor breach to resolve, the quality score would need to climb back above 4.0 over the next 12 months. | — |
| CounterThe quality read leans heavily on a Piotroski F-score of 0 out of 9 and a moat score of 4.5 — metrics built for operating companies that may not meaningfully describe a closed-end income fund's actual business quality. | ||
Thornburg Income Builder Opportunities is in a confirmed technical breakout, with a golden cross, price above all key moving averages, and a bullish MACD, lifting the momentum score to 6.7. Chart pattern detection | For the breakout to hold over the next 12 months, the momentum score should stay at or above 6.0 and price should remain above the 200-day moving average. | →Stable |
| CounterThe engine's own price targets show a take-profit level of $21.83, slightly below the current price of $21.96, implying modeled upside of -0.6% — the breakout has essentially no near-term room left even if the trend itself continues. | ||
Thornburg Income Builder Opportunities' catalyst profile centers on an outsized reported distribution, with the catalyst notes citing a dividend figure of 566.0% and a dividend-safety component of 6.0. Catalyst breakdown | For this to remain a durable income catalyst, the dividend-safety component should stay at or above 5.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA reported dividend of 566.0% is far outside any normal sustainable range for a listed fund and likely reflects a data or annualization artifact rather than a genuine distribution rate — catalyst-dimension confidence is also the lowest of any category at 0.25. | ||
Thornburg Income Builder Opportunities screens as attractively valued against peers, ranking 9.1 out of 10 on the value peer-rank component with a P/E of 10.0.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- For this valuation edge to persist, the value peer-rank component should stay at or above 7.0 and the P/E should remain below 14 over the next 12 months.
CounterValue-dimension confidence is only 0.2, the lowest of any scoring category, so the attractive relative valuation rests on thin supporting data.
The engine identifies an institutional-constraint edge in Thornburg Income Builder Opportunities, citing its $0.7B market capitalization as below the scale most institutional investors can access.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- For this edge to remain intact, market capitalization should stay below $5B over the next 12 months, keeping the fund under-followed by large institutions.
CounterDespite this theoretical constraint-driven edge, the position-size recommendation is still AVOID and the asymmetry ratio sits at 0.0, so the engine is not yet translating the constraint into an actionable opportunity.
Thornburg Income Builder Opportunities has a quality score of just 0.9, below the engine's 4.0 minimum floor, triggering an explicit exit-position action note.
—Engine summary
- Expectation
- For this floor breach to resolve, the quality score would need to climb back above 4.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterThe quality read leans heavily on a Piotroski F-score of 0 out of 9 and a moat score of 4.5 — metrics built for operating companies that may not meaningfully describe a closed-end income fund's actual business quality.
Thornburg Income Builder Opportunities is in a confirmed technical breakout, with a golden cross, price above all key moving averages, and a bullish MACD, lifting the momentum score to 6.7.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- For the breakout to hold over the next 12 months, the momentum score should stay at or above 6.0 and price should remain above the 200-day moving average.
CounterThe engine's own price targets show a take-profit level of $21.83, slightly below the current price of $21.96, implying modeled upside of -0.6% — the breakout has essentially no near-term room left even if the trend itself continues.
Thornburg Income Builder Opportunities' catalyst profile centers on an outsized reported distribution, with the catalyst notes citing a dividend figure of 566.0% and a dividend-safety component of 6.0.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- For this to remain a durable income catalyst, the dividend-safety component should stay at or above 5.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterA reported dividend of 566.0% is far outside any normal sustainable range for a listed fund and likely reflects a data or annualization artifact rather than a genuine distribution rate — catalyst-dimension confidence is also the lowest of any category at 0.25.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
0.9/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 0.0 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 0/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.8 |
| OBV | 4.4 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.9 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.8 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.8 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.4/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 8.8 |
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 5.7%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Value at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 10.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 9.4, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Quality at 0.9, Insider at 5.0, and Sentiment at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Minimum Floor
Trip ifQuality score stays below 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarters, showing no recovery from the current 0.9.
- P2Confirmed Technical Breakout
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from the current 6.7.
- P3Attractive Relative Valuation
Trip ifValue peer-rank component falls below 5.0 from the current 9.1.
- P4Institutional Constraint Edge
Trip ifMarket capitalization rises above $5B, removing the small-cap institutional constraint.
- P5Outsized Distribution Catalyst
Trip ifDividend-safety component falls below 3.0 from the current 6.0.