Value
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.7 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
SXI · Why this verdict
Why Standex International Corporati (SXI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Standex International has delivered a strong earnings track record with three beats in four quarters and carries a high-quality financial profile, but RSI at 81 signals overbought conditions and the stock price substantially exceeds the analyst target, eliminating near-term entry opportunity.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Standex beat consensus earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with average EPS surprise of 4.4%, showing consistent execution against financial targets in specialty industrial machinery. Earnings | The beat rate continues at 3 or more beats in the next 4 quarters, demonstrating that management guidance remains achievable and conservative. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe most recent quarter produced an essentially flat result (negative 0.09% surprise), hinting that the beat cadence may be narrowing as analyst expectations have caught up. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 reflects strong balance sheet health including a current ratio above the peers and improving profitability metrics across return on equity and return on assets. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or higher over the next 12 months, indicating that financial health is not deteriorating. | →Stable |
| CounterSmall-to-mid-cap industrial companies with elevated quality scores can still see rapid deterioration if a single large customer or division underperforms, and the company's $3.7 billion market cap limits buffer. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 3.56 and a price above the maximum pain level of $185 suggest that options market participants are positioning defensively at current levels near $309. Risk breakdown | The put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 6 months as the stock consolidates back toward maximum pain, indicating the elevated defensive positioning has resolved. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put-to-call ratios in low-liquidity names can reflect hedging activity rather than directional bearishness, and the signal is noisier for smaller industrial companies. | ||
The company shows solid earnings growth with a growth score of 7.2, supported by revenue growth and strong momentum, positioning it above median peers in the specialty industrial machinery sector. Scores | Revenue growth remains positive and the growth score stays above 5.0 over the next 12 months, confirming the growth profile is structural rather than one-quarter phenomenon. | — |
| CounterThe forward price-to-earnings of 31.1x is expensive for an industrial machinery company, and any growth deceleration could quickly make the valuation untenable. | ||
Standex beat consensus earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with average EPS surprise of 4.4%, showing consistent execution against financial targets in specialty industrial machinery.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat rate continues at 3 or more beats in the next 4 quarters, demonstrating that management guidance remains achievable and conservative.
CounterThe most recent quarter produced an essentially flat result (negative 0.09% surprise), hinting that the beat cadence may be narrowing as analyst expectations have caught up.
A Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 reflects strong balance sheet health including a current ratio above the peers and improving profitability metrics across return on equity and return on assets.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or higher over the next 12 months, indicating that financial health is not deteriorating.
CounterSmall-to-mid-cap industrial companies with elevated quality scores can still see rapid deterioration if a single large customer or division underperforms, and the company's $3.7 billion market cap limits buffer.
A put-to-call ratio of 3.56 and a price above the maximum pain level of $185 suggest that options market participants are positioning defensively at current levels near $309.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 6 months as the stock consolidates back toward maximum pain, indicating the elevated defensive positioning has resolved.
CounterElevated put-to-call ratios in low-liquidity names can reflect hedging activity rather than directional bearishness, and the signal is noisier for smaller industrial companies.
The company shows solid earnings growth with a growth score of 7.2, supported by revenue growth and strong momentum, positioning it above median peers in the specialty industrial machinery sector.
—Scores
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains positive and the growth score stays above 5.0 over the next 12 months, confirming the growth profile is structural rather than one-quarter phenomenon.
CounterThe forward price-to-earnings of 31.1x is expensive for an industrial machinery company, and any growth deceleration could quickly make the valuation untenable.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.0 |
| ROA | 4.3 |
| Gross margin | 4.5 |
| Op margin | 7.3 |
| Net margin | 6.3 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 3.5 |
| holder change | 4.7 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $4,921,913 (0.160% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.2 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 4.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.6 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 6.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.67
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:86d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.89
Upside
+10.8%
Downside
12.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.89 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.1, Sentiment at 6.9, and Quality at 6.6; the weakest are Insider at 3.5, Peer rank at 4.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.89 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarterly reports, indicating the beat cadence has broken.
- P2Financial Quality Piotroski
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 6 in any single reported period, indicating financial health deterioration of more than 2 points from the current level of 8.
- P3Elevated Put Call Risk Signal
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio remains above 3.0 for more than 60 consecutive days, indicating sustained defensive positioning rather than a transient hedge.
- P4Strong Revenue Earnings Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters, indicating the growth profile has turned negative.