Value
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.6 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
STNG · Why this verdict
Why Scorpio Tankers (STNG) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Scorpio achieves a 48% operating margin, a wide economic moat score of 8.4, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Rule of 40 score of 59 — a combination that distinguishes it as a high-quality operator within the commodity shipping sector. Quality breakdown | Operating margins remain above 35% and Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or 9 for the next 4 consecutive quarters, confirming the quality profile is structural rather than cyclical. | →Stable |
| CounterTanker operating margins are primarily driven by spot rate cycles rather than internal competitive advantages; the moat and margin metrics may be inflated by peak cycle conditions rather than reflecting a durable structural edge. | ||
Scorpio Tankers has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all 4 of the past 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 15%, including a 39% beat in the July 2025 quarter, signaling consistently stronger-than-expected tanker rate realizations. Earnings | The company beats consensus EPS by at least 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as product tanker rates remain supportive. | →Stable |
| CounterTanker earnings are highly sensitive to global oil trade patterns and fleet utilization; a normalization of trade flows or increase in fleet supply could compress rates and end the beat streak abruptly. | ||
Revenue is growing at 46% year-over-year and earnings estimates are trending upward, placing Scorpio among the strongest growth profiles in the energy midstream sector based on growth score of 10/10. Bull case | Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters as global oil product trade volumes support tanker demand. | →Stable |
| Counter46% revenue growth in tanker companies reflects elevated rates rather than volume growth; mean reversion in tanker rates could rapidly deflate the revenue base without a corresponding reduction in operating costs. | ||
Positive news sentiment with a moderately favorable LLM sentiment score of 6.5 and analyst consensus implying 26% upside provide a tailwind, but the near-term asymmetry ratio of 1.27 is just below the 1.5 threshold that would clear entry, making the timing mildly constrained. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst consensus price target rises above $90, more than 14% above current price, following continued earnings beats over the next 2 quarters, clearing the asymmetry constraint. | →Stable |
| CounterNarrow asymmetry ratios in shipping stocks often reflect the market having already priced in the good news cycle; without a catalyst to reset the forward earnings curve higher, near-term return potential may be limited. | ||
Scorpio achieves a 48% operating margin, a wide economic moat score of 8.4, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Rule of 40 score of 59 — a combination that distinguishes it as a high-quality operator within the commodity shipping sector.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins remain above 35% and Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or 9 for the next 4 consecutive quarters, confirming the quality profile is structural rather than cyclical.
CounterTanker operating margins are primarily driven by spot rate cycles rather than internal competitive advantages; the moat and margin metrics may be inflated by peak cycle conditions rather than reflecting a durable structural edge.
Scorpio Tankers has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all 4 of the past 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 15%, including a 39% beat in the July 2025 quarter, signaling consistently stronger-than-expected tanker rate realizations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS by at least 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as product tanker rates remain supportive.
CounterTanker earnings are highly sensitive to global oil trade patterns and fleet utilization; a normalization of trade flows or increase in fleet supply could compress rates and end the beat streak abruptly.
Revenue is growing at 46% year-over-year and earnings estimates are trending upward, placing Scorpio among the strongest growth profiles in the energy midstream sector based on growth score of 10/10.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters as global oil product trade volumes support tanker demand.
Counter46% revenue growth in tanker companies reflects elevated rates rather than volume growth; mean reversion in tanker rates could rapidly deflate the revenue base without a corresponding reduction in operating costs.
Positive news sentiment with a moderately favorable LLM sentiment score of 6.5 and analyst consensus implying 26% upside provide a tailwind, but the near-term asymmetry ratio of 1.27 is just below the 1.5 threshold that would clear entry, making the timing mildly constrained.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target rises above $90, more than 14% above current price, following continued earnings beats over the next 2 quarters, clearing the asymmetry constraint.
CounterNarrow asymmetry ratios in shipping stocks often reflect the market having already priced in the good news cycle; without a catalyst to reset the forward earnings curve higher, near-term return potential may be limited.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Scorpio Tankers has achieved a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat record with an average positive surprise of nearly 15%, earns a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, carries a wide economic moat score of 8.4, and trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3x against 46% year-over-year revenue growth — though positive news sentiment and analyst upside of 26% are modestly constrained by a thin near-term asymmetry ratio.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.3 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 9.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 2.1 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.3 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 48%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 26% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 46% YoY
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.7 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
4.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $18,455,147,681 (507.902% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 6.8 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 6.3 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 2.1 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
| news risk | 3.0 |
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 247.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: Insider selling 507.90% of mcap (EXTREME). Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE->V9:INSIDER_SELLING|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:23d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Energy:3/10
Failed (1)
- INSIDER:507.90%=EXTREME
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
1.76
Upside
+14.7%
Downside
8.3%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 23d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the INSIDER gate's 507.90%=EXTREME outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 1.76.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.5, and Quality at 7.4; the weakest are Insider at 4.0, Momentum at 4.8, and Peer rank at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.76 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat 4 Of 4
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, indicating tanker rate conditions have turned less favorable than analyst consensus assumes.
- P2Wide Economic Moat 48pct Margins
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 30%, declining more than 18 percentage points from the current 48% level, signaling cycle-peak margins are normalizing.
- P346pct Revenue Growth Estimates Trending Up
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% year-over-year in any reported quarter over the next 12 months, indicating rate normalization has materially compressed the top line.
- P4Thin Asymmetry News Sentiment Positive
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $72, less than 9% below the current price of $78.75, removing the upside buffer and inverting the asymmetry case.