Value
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.7 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.0 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.72
STE · Why this verdict
Why STERIS plc (Ireland) (STE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
STERIS earns a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 across all profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency criteria, indicating that the underlying business quality remains intact despite the price decline. Quality breakdown | STERIS maintains a Piotroski F-Score of at least 8/9 for the next 4 consecutive quarters, confirming that business fundamentals are not deteriorating alongside the price trend. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski score is backward-looking; the confirmed downtrend and C-suite departure flag suggest that the operating environment may be changing in ways the historical score does not yet capture. | ||
The analyst consensus price target of approximately $223 implies 25% upside from the current price of $205.93, suggesting that sell-side analysts view the current discount as a buying opportunity. Sentiment breakdown | The stock reaches $220, more than 7% above current price, within 12 months as the downtrend reverses and the valuation discount to consensus narrows. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst price targets often lag price action during sustained downtrends; the death cross pattern and MACD in confirmed negative territory suggest the consensus target may be revised down before price recovers. | ||
The put-to-call ratio of 4.62 indicates that options market participants are positioned approximately 4.6 times more bearish than bullish, signaling elevated concern about near-term downside. Key risks | Put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 6 months as the downtrend resolves and bearish hedges expire or are closed, indicating sentiment normalization. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put-to-call ratios in healthcare equipment companies can reflect legitimate fundamental hedging by institutional holders rather than speculative bearishness, and may persist through the entire downtrend. | ||
STERIS depends on third-party suppliers of ethylene oxide and cobalt-60 for its sterilization services, creating a supply chain concentration risk that could disrupt revenue if either input becomes unavailable or significantly more expensive. Bear case | No major supply disruption to ethylene oxide or cobalt-60 occurs over the next 12 months, and management reports no material change to supply chain costs in quarterly commentary. | →Stable |
| CounterRegulatory pressure on ethylene oxide use in medical device sterilization has been increasing; an adverse EPA ruling or supplier capacity constraint could force STERIS to absorb significant costs or lose contracts. | ||
STERIS earns a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 across all profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency criteria, indicating that the underlying business quality remains intact despite the price decline.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- STERIS maintains a Piotroski F-Score of at least 8/9 for the next 4 consecutive quarters, confirming that business fundamentals are not deteriorating alongside the price trend.
CounterThe Piotroski score is backward-looking; the confirmed downtrend and C-suite departure flag suggest that the operating environment may be changing in ways the historical score does not yet capture.
The analyst consensus price target of approximately $223 implies 25% upside from the current price of $205.93, suggesting that sell-side analysts view the current discount as a buying opportunity.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reaches $220, more than 7% above current price, within 12 months as the downtrend reverses and the valuation discount to consensus narrows.
CounterAnalyst price targets often lag price action during sustained downtrends; the death cross pattern and MACD in confirmed negative territory suggest the consensus target may be revised down before price recovers.
The put-to-call ratio of 4.62 indicates that options market participants are positioned approximately 4.6 times more bearish than bullish, signaling elevated concern about near-term downside.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falls below 2.0 within 6 months as the downtrend resolves and bearish hedges expire or are closed, indicating sentiment normalization.
CounterElevated put-to-call ratios in healthcare equipment companies can reflect legitimate fundamental hedging by institutional holders rather than speculative bearishness, and may persist through the entire downtrend.
STERIS depends on third-party suppliers of ethylene oxide and cobalt-60 for its sterilization services, creating a supply chain concentration risk that could disrupt revenue if either input becomes unavailable or significantly more expensive.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- No major supply disruption to ethylene oxide or cobalt-60 occurs over the next 12 months, and management reports no material change to supply chain costs in quarterly commentary.
CounterRegulatory pressure on ethylene oxide use in medical device sterilization has been increasing; an adverse EPA ruling or supplier capacity constraint could force STERIS to absorb significant costs or lose contracts.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
STERIS has earned a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and analysts carry a consensus target implying 25% upside, but the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with both price and volume distribution pointing lower, and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 4.62 reflects significant bearish positioning by options market participants.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 4.4 |
| Gross margin | 4.8 |
| Op margin | 8.0 |
| Net margin | 6.6 |
| Current ratio | 7.3 |
| FCF quality | 7.4 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.2 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,554,051 (0.007% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 3.9 |
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.2 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 6.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.1 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 7.5 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.5 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 115.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.26
Upside
+2.4%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7; weakest: Technical at 2.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7, Growth at 7.2, and Quality at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 2.9, Peer rank at 3.9, and Momentum at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Piotroski Perfect Quality Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7/9 in any reported quarter over the next 12 months, signaling fundamental deterioration below the quality threshold.
- P2Analyst Consensus 25pct Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $200, less than 3% below the current price of $205.93, signaling broad analyst downgrades are materializing.
- P3Elevated Put Call Bearish Positioning
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 6.0, more than 30% higher than the current 4.62, indicating bearish positioning is intensifying rather than unwinding.
- P4Ethylene Oxide Supplier Concentration
Trip ifStock price drops below $190, more than 8% below the current $205.93, following a supply disruption disclosure or regulatory adverse action announcement.